Wald's maximin model: a treasure in disguise!

Sniedovich, Moshe

doi:10.1108/15265940810875603

Cited by 27 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 5 publications

(3 reference statements)

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“…Yet, the fact of the matter is that the opposite is true. As indicated by Sniedovich [23], [24], formulating the components that form part of the model is often a tricky business that requires of the modeler/analyst considerable insight and ingenuity. To illustrate this point, consider the following optimization model:…”

Section: Modeling Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A fuller account of this simple illustration in [23], [24] Specifically, the worst-case analysis deployed by information-gap decision theory is represented by the "inner" optimization of the Maximin model (5.9). The "outer" optimization represents the decision maker's choice of the "best" (largest) safe region of uncertainty around the estimateũ.…”

Section: Wherementioning

confidence: 99%

“…More details on the relationship between information-gap decision theory and Wald's Maximin paradigm can be found in [24].…”

Section: Wherementioning

confidence: 99%

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A classical decision theoretic perspective on worst-case analysis

Sniedovich

2011

Appl Math

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Section: Modeling Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Wherementioning

confidence: 99%

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A classical decision theoretic perspective on worst-case analysis

Sniedovich

2011

Appl Math

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“…Hence, there is nothing that IGDT's robustness model does that cannot be done, indeed is being done for decades, with radius of stability models. 2) As proved formally and rigorously in Sniedovich (2007Sniedovich ( , 2008Sniedovich ( , 2010Sniedovich ( , 2012Sniedovich ( , 2012bSniedovich ( , 2012c, IGDT's robustness model is a very simple maximin model (circa 1940). Hence, there is nothing that IGDT's robustness model does that cannot be done, indeed is being done for decades, with maximin models, but the converse is not true.…”

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confidence: 98%

Response to Burgman and Regan: The elephant in the rhetoric on info‐gap decision theory

Sniedovich

2014

Ecological Applications

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The formal, rigorous assessment of IGDT in Sniedovich (2012) reveals that this theory's central pillar, namely its robustness model, is a reinvention of a well-established model of local robustness, known universally as radius of stability (circa 1960). As a matter of fact, this robustness model is a simple model derived from Wald's famous maximin paradigm (circa 1940). This means that had there been any gap in the state of the art that IGDT could have possibly presumed to fill, this gap had already been filled decades ago, well before IGDT was even contemplated. The conclusion therefore is that there is no gap in the state of the art that IGDT does fill, or can possibly fill, or is called upon to fill. Also, since IGDT is based on a definition of local robustness, the theory is unsuitable for the treatment of a severe uncertainty of the type that this theory claims to address. Therefore, since the theory claims to be particularly suitable for the treatment of a severe, unbounded uncertainty, the inevitable conclusion is that this theory constitutes a voodoo decision theory par excellence. Fig. 1 speaks for itself so that no amount of rhetoric can explain this fact away. The Letter's attempt to brush off valid, rigorous, well-documented criticism of IGDT as "... haggling over terminology ..." is yet another attempt to avoid dealing with the elephant in the IGDT room. Nothing will be gained from the use of misleading rhetorics to argue that ideas, models, techniques, approaches, etc., that go back to the 1940s and 1960s, are IGDT innovations. But more than this, what good can come of misapplications of these ideas in applied ecology and conservation biology? In the Appendix, I address a more intriguing question, namely: QUESTION 2: What could possibly be the rationale that motivated a search for a (nonexistent) gap in the state of the art for IGDT to fill?

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“…Other representations of info‐gap’s robustness model and info‐gap’s decision model as instances of Wald’s maxi‐min model can be found elsewhere. ( 8,9,22,28,29 )…”

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confidence: 99%

Fooled by Local Robustness

Sniedovich

2012

Risk Analysis

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One would have expected the considerable public debate created by Nassim Taleb's two best selling books on uncertainty, Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan, to inspire greater caution to the fundamental difficulties posed by severe uncertainty. Yet, methodologies exhibiting an incautious approach to uncertainty have been proposed recently in a range of publications. So, the objective of this short note is to call attention to a prime example of an incautious approach to severe uncertainty that is manifested in the proposition to use the concept radius of stability as a measure of robustness against severe uncertainty. The central proposition of this approach, which is exemplified in info-gap decision theory, is this: use a simple radius of stability model to analyze and manage a severe uncertainty that is characterized by a vast uncertainty space, a poor point estimate, and a likelihood-free quantification of uncertainty. This short discussion serves then as a reminder that the generic radius of stability model is a model of local robustness. It is, therefore, utterly unsuitable for the treatment of severe uncertainty when the latter is characterized by a poor estimate of the parameter of interest, a vast uncertainty space, and a likelihood-free quantification of uncertainty.

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Wald's maximin model: a treasure in disguise!

Cited by 27 publications

References 5 publications

A classical decision theoretic perspective on worst-case analysis

A classical decision theoretic perspective on worst-case analysis

Response to Burgman and Regan: The elephant in the rhetoric on info‐gap decision theory

Fooled by Local Robustness

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