Wading Out the Storm: The Role of Poverty in Exposure, Vulnerability and Resilience to Floods in Dar Es Salaam

Erman, Alvina; Obolensky, Marguerite Anne Beatrice; Hallegatte, Stéphane

doi:10.1596/1813-9450-8976

Cited by 23 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…The survey data comes from a Disaster-Poverty survey implemented over the course of 2017 and 2018, covering more than 1335 households in Dar es Salaam. It was implemented by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) partnership and the Poverty Global Practice at the World Bank, under the broader umbrella of the Tanzania Urban Resilience Program (TURP) (for further details, see Erman et al, 2019). Working in collaboration with the Disaster-Poverty survey team, we designed two short questions on membership of mutual aid groups to be included in this survey:…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Rapid urbanization has resulted in unplanned settlement in riverine and low-lying coastal areas, making significant areas of the city increasingly vulnerable to the effects of climate-related flooding (Collier & Jones, 2017;World Bank, 2009). An estimated 10% of Dar es Salaam's inhabitants face repeated direct impacts from floods, while another 39% are exposed indirect effects such as lost work, missed school, or adverse impacts on health (Erman, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Saving Up for a Rainy Day? Savings Groups and Resilience to Flooding in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

et al. 2021

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This paper explores the role of savings groups in resilience to urban climate-related disasters. Savings groups are a rapidly growing phenomenon in Africa. They are decentralized, non-institutional groups that provide millions of people excluded from the formal banking sector with a trusted, accessible, and relatively simple source of microfinance. Yet there is little work on the impacts of savings groups on resilience to disasters. In this paper, we use a combination of quantitative and qualitative evidence from Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) to shed new light on the role that savings groups play in helping households cope with climate-related shocks. Drawing on new data, we show that approximately one-quarter of households have at least one member in a group, and that these households recover from flood events faster than those who do not. We further argue that the structure of savings groups allows for considerable group oversight, reducing the high costs of monitoring and sanctioning that often undermine cooperative engagement in urban areas. This makes the savings group model a uniquely flexible form of financing that is well adapted to helping households cope with shocks such as repeated flooding. In addition to this, we posit that they may provide a foundation for community initiatives focusing on preventative action.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Saving Up for a Rainy Day? Savings Groups and Resilience to Flooding in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

et al. 2021

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“…In addition, the Global Assessment Report (UNDRR 2017) offers estimates of risks from five major natural hazards (including flood risks), though it focuses on monetary quantifications of disaster risks. Besides such global assessments, the recent availability of high-resolution flood and population maps has enabled countless local and national risk assessments, for instance in Tanzania, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Vietnam (Chakraborty et al 2014;Erman et al 2019;Fielding 2012;Braese et al 2020).…”

Section: Existing Evidencementioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Ho Chi Minh City, for instance, qualitative surveys suggest flood-prone areas can be much cheaper than non-flood-prone areas for the same quality of accommodation (World Bank and Australian AID 2014). Using a household survey in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, Erman et al (2019) find that flood-prone dwellings are valued at 30 percent less on average than safe ones.…”

Section: Flood Risks and Povertymentioning

confidence: 99%

People in Harm's Way: Flood Exposure and Poverty in 189 Countries

Rentschler¹,

Salhab²

2020

Self Cite

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The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

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“…It is estimated that about 70% of the total population in the region are living in unplanned areas (Kebede & Nicholls 2011). Households' losses following the floods of April 2018 in Dar es Salaam were estimated to be more than $100 million (Erman et al 2019). The occurrence of a temporal shift in both land-use/cover and climate (particularly rainfall) has been reported in the Dar es Salaam urban area by several previous studies.…”

Section: Graphical Abstract Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate and land-cover changes on urban flood runoffs: a case of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Mzava

Valimba

Nobert

2021

Journal of Water and Climate Change

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Over the past half-century, the risk of urban flooding in Dar es Salaam has increased due to changes in land cover coupled with climatic changes. This paper aimed to quantify the impacts of climate and land-cover changes on the magnitudes and frequencies of flood runoffs in urban Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. A calibrated and validated SWAT rainfall-runoff model was used to generate flood hydrographs for the period 1969–2050 using historical rainfall data and projected rainfall based on the CORDEX-Africa regional climate model. Results showed that climate change has a greater impact on change in peak flows than land-cover change when the two are treated separately in theory. It was observed that, in the past, the probability of occurrence of urban flooding in the study area was likely to be increased up to 1.5-fold by climate change relative to land-cover change. In the future, this figure is estimated to decrease to 1.1-fold. The coupled effects of climate and land-cover changes cause a much bigger impact on change in peak flows than any separate scenario; this scenario represents the actual scenario on the ground. From the combined effects of climate and land-cover changes, the magnitudes of mean peak flows were determined to increase between 34.4 and 58.6% in the future relative to the past. However, the change in peak flows from combined effects of climate and land-cover changes will decrease by 36.3% in the future relative to the past; owing to the lesser variations in climate and land-cover changes in the future compared with those of the past.

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Wading Out the Storm: The Role of Poverty in Exposure, Vulnerability and Resilience to Floods in Dar Es Salaam

Cited by 23 publications

References 2 publications

Saving Up for a Rainy Day? Savings Groups and Resilience to Flooding in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Saving Up for a Rainy Day? Savings Groups and Resilience to Flooding in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

People in Harm's Way: Flood Exposure and Poverty in 189 Countries

Quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate and land-cover changes on urban flood runoffs: a case of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

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