Vulnerability to heat-related mortality in Latin America: a case-crossover study in São Paulo, Brazil, Santiago, Chile and Mexico City, Mexico

Bell, Michelle L.; OʼNeill, Marie S.; Ranjit, Nalini; Borja-Aburto, Víctor Hugo; Cifuentes, Luis A.; Gouveia, Nélson

doi:10.1093/ije/dyn094

Cited by 243 publications

(183 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…Numerous studies have been conducted to investigate the short-term effects of changes in ambient temperature on mortality, and various study designs have been used to characterize or quantify the relationships, including time series (Curriero et al 2002;Goldberg et al 2011;Hajat et al 2005;Hajat et al 2002;Huynen et al 2001;LeTertre et al 2006;Saez et al 2000) and related case-crossover designs (Bell et al 2008;Stafoggia et al 2008;Stafoggia et al 2006). The objectives of these studies were related to answering questions regarding triggering mechanisms, such as "Do the number of adverse health events increase when temperature increases or decreases?…”

Section: Epidemiology Of Ambient Temperature On Healthmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The case-crossover design has been used mostly in epidemiological studies of the effects of air pollution on human health and in studies of acute events such as myocardial infarction, but there are also studies of the effects of temperature on human health using either the case-crossover design alone (Bell et al 2008;Stafoggia et al 2008;Stafoggia et al 2006) or both the time-series and case-crossover designs ;Medina-…”

Section: Case-crossover Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of diurnal variations in temperature on non-accidental mortality among the elderly population of Montreal, Québec, 1984–2007

2013

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The association between short-term changes in ambient temperature and daily mortality has been described widely in the literature. A few recent papers support the hypothesis that diurnal variations in temperature may also have an impact on mortality, independent of the effect of daily mean temperature. The objective of the thesis was to determine whether variations in diurnal temperature increased daily non-accidental mortality among the elderly population of Montreal, Quebec, during the 1984-2007 study period. We used distributed lag non-linear models constrained over a 30 day lag period, and adjusted for temporal trends, mean daily temperature, and mean daily concentrations of nitrogen dioxide and ozone. We found over the 30 day lag period a cumulative increase of 5.12% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.02 to 10.49) in daily mortality for an increase of the diurnal temperature range from 6 °C to 11 °C and a 11.27% (95% CI: 2.08 to 21.29) increase in mortality associated with an increase of the diurnal temperature range from 11 to 16 °C. The results were relatively robust to adjustment for mean temperature.In conclusion, we found that in Montreal daily diurnal variations in temperature are associated with a small increase in mortality among the elderly population. More studies are needed in different geographical locations to confirm these effects.ii Résumé L'association entre les variations à court terme de la température ambiante et la mortalité quotidienne a été largement décrite dans la littérature. Quelques articles récents supportent l'hypothèse que les variations diurnes de la température peuvent également avoir un impact notable sur la mortalité, indépendamment de l'effet de la température moyenne. L'objectif de la thèse était de déterminer si les variations de température diurne provoquent une augmentation de la mortalité quotidienne non accidentelle chez les iii

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Section: Epidemiology Of Ambient Temperature On Healthmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Case-crossover Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of diurnal variations in temperature on non-accidental mortality among the elderly population of Montreal, Québec, 1984–2007

2013

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“…Several previous studies on associations of temperature with mortality have considered delayed effects (Kysely 2004;Hajat et al 2005;Bell et al 2008;Hertel et al 2009), including lagged effects of temperature on single days and the effects of moving average temperature on subsequent days. However, these approaches are susceptible to overestimating the effects of the current day's exposure by ignoring the effects of exposure on previous days (Gasparrini et al 2010), or underestimating the effects of exposure on mortality if they persist longer than the observed lag period (Schwartz 2000;Roberts and Martin 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of temperature on mortality in Hong Kong: a time series analysis

Chan

2014

Int J Biometeorol

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Although interest in assessing the impacts of hot temperature and mortality in Hong Kong has increased, less evidence on the effect of cold temperature on mortality is available. We examined both the effects of heat and cold temperatures on daily mortality in Hong Kong for the last decade (2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011). A quasi-Poisson model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of temperatures on cause-specific and age-specific mortality.Non-linear effects of temperature on mortality were identified. The relative risk of non-accidental mortality associated with cold temperature (11.1°C, 1 st percentile of temperature) relative to 19.4°C(25 th percentile of temperature) was 1.17 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04, 1.29) for lags 0-13. The relative risk of non-accidental mortality associated with high temperature (31.5°C, 99 th percentile of temperature) relative to 27.8°C (75 th percentile of temperature) was 1.09 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.17) for lags 0-3. In Hong Kong, extreme cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality. The effect of cold lasted longer and greater than that of heat. People older than 75 years were the most vulnerable group to cold temperature, while people aged 65-74 were the most vulnerable group to hot temperature.Our findings may have implications for developing intervention strategies for extreme cold and hot temperatures.

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“…This review also underscores the lack of data describing the effects of climate change and toxicant exposures on human health. While climate change is a global phenomenon, the existing literature has only recently started to explore contaminant interactions outside of North America and Europe (e.g., Bell et al, 2008;Qian et al, 2008). A greater understanding of the biological effects of climate change on chemical toxicity continues to be needed in other parts of the world.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In another study illustrating the effects of climate sensitive outcomes on vulnerable older populations, males in Denver, Colorado aged 65 and older were found to be at increased risk for hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction, coronary arteriosclerosis, and pulmonary heart disease when co-exposed to higher temperatures and ozone (Koken et al, 2003). More recently, Bell et al (2008) examined confounding factors, including air pollution levels, on heat-related mortality in three Latin American cities: Mexico City, Mexico, Sao Paulo, Brazil, and Santiago, Chile. They found that ozone and PM 10 enhanced heat-related mortality, and that susceptibility was associated with increasing age in all three cities.…”

Section: Air Pollutants and Cardio-respiratory Diseasementioning

confidence: 99%

The toxicology of climate change: Environmental contaminants in a warming world

Noyes

McElwee

Miller

et al. 2009

Environment International

891

569

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Climate change induced by anthropogenic warming of the earth's atmosphere is a daunting problem. This review examines one of the consequences of climate change that has only recently attracted attention: namely, the effects of climate change on the environmental distribution and toxicity of chemical pollutants. A review was undertaken of the scientific literature (original research articles, reviews, government and intergovernmental reports) focusing on the interactions of toxicants with the environmental parameters, temperature, precipitation, and salinity, as altered by climate change. Three broad classes of chemical toxicants of global significance were the focus: air pollutants, persistent organic pollutants (POPs), including some organochlorine pesticides, and other classes of pesticides. Generally, increases in temperature will enhance the toxicity of contaminants and increase concentrations of tropospheric ozone regionally, but will also likely increase rates of chemical degradation. While further research is needed, climate change coupled with air pollutant exposures may have potentially serious adverse consequences for human health in urban and polluted regions. Climate change producing alterations in: food webs, lipid dynamics, ice and snow melt, and organic carbon cycling could result in increased POP levels in water, soil, and biota. There is also compelling evidence that increasing temperatures could be deleterious to pollutant-exposed wildlife. For example, elevated water temperatures may alter the biotransformation of contaminants to more bioactive metabolites and impair homeostasis. The complex interactions between climate change and pollutants may be particularly problematic for species living at the edge of their physiological tolerance range where acclimation capacity may be limited. In addition to temperature increases, regional precipitation patterns are projected to be altered with climate change. Regions subject to decreases in precipitation may experience enhanced volatilization of POPs and pesticides to the atmosphere. Reduced precipitation will also increase air pollution in urbanized regions resulting in negative health effects, which may be exacerbated by temperature increases. Regions subject to increased precipitation will have lower levels of air pollution, but will likely experience enhanced surface deposition of airborne POPs and increased run-off of pesticides. Moreover, increases in the intensity and frequency of storm events linked to climate change could lead to more severe episodes of chemical contamination of water bodies and surrounding watersheds. Changes in salinity may affect aquatic organisms as an independent stressor as well as by altering the bioavailability and in some instances increasing the toxicity of chemicals. A paramount issue will be to identify species and populations especially vulnerable to climate-pollutant interactions, in the context of the many other physical, chemical, and biological stressors that will be altered with climate change. Moreover, it w...

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Vulnerability to heat-related mortality in Latin America: a case-crossover study in São Paulo, Brazil, Santiago, Chile and Mexico City, Mexico

Abstract: Elevated temperatures are associated with mortality risk in these Latin American cities, with the strongest associations in São Paulo, the hottest city. The elderly are an important population for targeted prevention measures, but vulnerability by sex and education differed by city.

Cited by 243 publications

References 59 publications

Effects of diurnal variations in temperature on non-accidental mortality among the elderly population of Montreal, Québec, 1984–2007

Effects of diurnal variations in temperature on non-accidental mortality among the elderly population of Montreal, Québec, 1984–2007

Effects of temperature on mortality in Hong Kong: a time series analysis

The toxicology of climate change: Environmental contaminants in a warming world

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