Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: Patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation

Abstract

The West African cocoa belt, reaching from Sierra Leone to southern Cameroon, is the origin of about 70% of the world's cocoa (Theobroma cacao), which in turn is the basis of the livelihoods of about two million farmers. We analyze cocoa's vulnerability to climate change in the West African cocoa belt, based on climate projections for the 2050s of 19 Global Circulation Models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change intermediate emissions scenario RCP 6.0. We use a combination of a statistical model of climatic suitability (Maxent) and the analysis of individual, potentially limiting climate variables. We find that: 1) contrary to expectation, maximum dry season temperatures are projected to become as or more limiting for cocoa as dry season water availability; 2) to reduce the vulnerability of cocoa to excessive dry season temperatures, the systematic use of adaptation strategies like shade trees in cocoa farms will be necessary, in reversal of the current trend of shade reduction; 3) there is a strong differentiation of climate vulnerability within the cocoa belt, with the most vulnerable areas near the forest-savanna transition in Nigeria and eastern Côte d'Ivoire, and the least vulnerable areas in the southern parts of Cameroon, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Liberia; 4) this spatial differentiation of climate vulnerability may lead to future shifts in cocoa production within the region, with the opportunity of partially compensating losses and gains, but also the risk of local production expansion leading to new deforestation. We conclude that adaptation strategies for cocoa in West Africa need to focus at several levels, from the consideration of tolerance to high temperatures in cocoa breeding programs, the promotion of shade trees in cocoa farms, to policies incentivizing the intensification of cocoa production on existing farms where future climate conditions permit and the establishment of new farms in already deforested areas.

Modelling blue and green water availability under climate change in the Beninese Basin of the Niger River Basin, West Africa

“…West Africa is one of the most exposed and vulnerable regions to the adverse effects of climate change (IPCC, , , Niasse, Afouda, & Amani, ). The economy of this region is mainly based on rainfed agriculture, and any change in the climate regime would directly affect the income at the country level as well as the livelihood of local populations (Läderach, Martinez‐Valle, Schroth, & Castro, ; Schroth, Läderach, Martinez‐Valle, Bunn, & Jassogne, ; Sultan & Gaetani, ). The high sensitivity of the West African region to climate hazards is illustrated by the severe consequences of the drought of the 1970s and 1980s (Amogu et al, ; Badou, Kapangaziwiri, Diekkrüger, Hounkpè, & Afouda, ; Lebel et al, ) and the floods at the end of the 2000s and the beginning of the 2010s (Aich et al, ; Descroix et al, ) on agricultural production and livelihoods of local population (Bonou, ; Hounkpè, Diekkrüger, Badou, & Afouda, ; Liersch et al, ).…”

Governance of zero deforestation cocoa in West Africa: New forms of public–private interaction

“…More than 70% of the world's cocoa originates in the West African cocoa belt, reaching from Sierra Leone to southern Cameroon (Leissle, 2018;Schroth, Läderach, Martinez-Valle, Bunn, & Jassogne, 2016).…”

Tropical forest-transition landscapes: a portfolio for studying people, tree crops and agro-ecological change in context

“…From the literature, we selected four variables within the WorldClim data set specific to the commodity species to be modelled based on the importance within the climatic envelopes of the four commodities, according to the literature (Ovalle Paterson et al 2015;Ray et al 2015;Schroth et al, 2016) and personal communication with experts ( Table Supp2).…”