Vulnerability Reduction Needed to Maintain Current Burdens of Heat-Related Mortality in a Changing Climate—Magnitude and Determinants

Abstract

The health burden from heatwaves is expected to increase with rising global mean temperatures and more extreme heat events over the coming decades. Health-related effects from extreme heat are more common in elderly populations. The population of Europe is rapidly aging, which will increase the health effects of future temperatures. In this study, we estimate the magnitude of adaptation needed to lower vulnerability to heat in order to prevent an increase in heat-related deaths in the 2050s; this is the Adaptive Risk Reduction (ARR) needed. Temperature projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from 18 climate models were coupled with gridded population data and exposure-response relationships from a European multi-city study on heat-related mortality. In the 2050s, the ARR for the general population is 53.5%, based on temperature projections under RCP 4.5. For the population above 65 years in Southern Europe, the ARR is projected to be 45.9% in a future with an unchanged climate and 74.7% with climate change under RCP 4.5. The ARRs were higher under RCP 8.5. Whichever emission scenario is followed or population projection assumed, Europe will need to adapt to a great degree to maintain heat-related mortality at present levels, which are themselves unacceptably high, posing an even greater challenge.

General Practitioners’ Perceptions of Heat Health Impacts on the Elderly in the Face of Climate Change—A Qualitative Study in Baden-Württemberg, Germany

“…In the heat wave summer of 2003, Baden-Württemberg experienced about 900–1300 and Europe for up to 70,000 excess deaths due to extreme temperatures [ 1 , 2 ]. Deaths attributable to heat waves are projected to rise significantly in Germany as in other European countries until the end of the 21st century due to climate change and aging populations [ 3 , 4 ]. There is no universally accepted definition of a heat wave [ 5 ].…”

“…According to Astrom et al even just to maintain heat-related mortality at present levels, substantial adaptation efforts are needed [ 4 ]. Heat health action plans need to be developed and implemented in Germany and elsewhere to prevent adverse heat health impacts [ 24 ].…”

Statistical Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas under Climate Change: Who Is at Risk?

“…Increases in morbidity and mortality are therefore expected. Understanding the possible magnitude of future adaptation needs could facilitate identifying interventions to increase population health resilience in a future climate [22,87]. For that reason, adaptation measures will need to be developed, particularly in metropolitan areas, in order to quantify and explain excess deaths related to high temperatures in an increasingly older population.…”

It’s not the heat, it’s the vulnerability: attribution of the 2016 spike in heat-associated deaths in Maricopa County, Arizona

“…Instead, nearly all of the models we generated led to an underestimate. Understanding the extent to which societies will continue to be able to adapt to heat, especially given projected urban-and global-driven climate change, is a critical research need (Åström et al 2017(Åström et al , Gosling et al 2017.…”