Vulnerability Patch Modeling

Abstract

The Information Technology products are suffering from various security issues due to the flaws residing in the software system. These flaws allow the violations of security policy and leads into vulnerability. Once the associated user discovers vulnerability the number of intrusions increases until the vendor releases a patch. The patching process helps in maintaining the stability of the software and reduces the probability of damage potential. Even after diffusion and installation whether the patch has successfully removed the vulnerability or not is of great importance. Patch failures creates more vulnerabilities and leads into disaster for developing organizations and users. Thus the success rate of patch is also an unavoidable factor on the basis of which the intrusion rate can be judged. Here in this paper we propose a vulnerability patch modeling that addresses the patching of vulnerabilities that are either discovered by external user or internal user. We also discuss after installation what leads a patch towards failure and what will be its impact on an intact system. The model also provides measures to estimate the potential unsuccessful patch rate that will help developers in logistic planning while patch development. We have used three datasets of different domain to validate the model. A numerical with different goodness of fit criteria is also illustrated in the paper.

Automated Patch Management: An Empirical Evaluation Study

“…Figure 2) used only the patch score (i.e., the score is calculated by weighting the selected criteria in the context of the organization for each vulnerability) to determine the patch order. We discovered our method in [5] needs improvement because historical data and practical experience are the inevitable factors to increase the success rate of patch [28]. We also learned from the practical experience shared in the patch management community of experts 3 , some patch failures could be avoided by prioritization (e.g., patching a microcode vulnerability in Ubuntu requires the kernel to be patched in advance; otherwise, the mitigation failed).…”

“…The Deploy patch process is iterated for each item (vulnerability) in the file until the stop signal is generated. ACVRM will stop patch execution if the acceptance rate of a failure [28] (i.e., the percentage of the unsuccessful patch accepted by security experts in the organization) is exceeded. The default acceptance rate in our design is up to 10% failure of patches in patch_prioritization.json for each host.…”

Coverage‐based vulnerability discovery modeling to optimize disclosure time using multiattribute approach

“…We have proposed four models with different distributions as shown by Equations 11,12,15,and 16. It may be noted that…”

“…Beattie et al explored a mathematical model that optimizes the time to patch. Recently, Kansal et al proposed a cost framework to evaluate the optimal discovery and patch release time, but they have not evaluated the utility of the framework.…”