Vulnerability of tropical forest ecosystems and forest dependent communities to droughts

Vogt, Daniel J.; Vogt, Kristiina A.; Gmur, Stephan J.; Scullion, Jason J.; Suntana, Asep; Daryanto, Stefani; Sigurðardóttir, Ragnhildur

doi:10.1016/j.envres.2015.10.022

Cited by 26 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 90 publications

(51 reference statements)

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“…Although examples can be found where socio-economic factors have been integrated within vulnerability analyses (e.g. Chuvieco et al, 2014;Vogt et al, 2016), analyses of direct vulnerability of forests to socioeconomic factors are limited. Vilar et al (2014) addressed the explicit link between socioeconomic factors and anthropogenic driven forest fires.…”

Section: Forest Vulnerability and Landscape-scale Trade-offsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drivers, impacts, and policy options to address land use changes at multiple scales : implications of food production, rural livelihoods, and ecosystem conservation

Manners¹

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I would further like to highlight the importance of the two European Commission funded projects within which I have been fortunate to participate. The projects ROBIN and PROTEIN2FOOD provided not only funding (2014-2016), but also much inspiration and support for this thesis. Exposure to international research groups, working on cutting edge methodologies and research fields offered fertile mediums within which to develop this investigation. From the ROBIN project, I would like to thank Dr Terry Parr (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, UK) for his support, Dr Marisol Toledo (Instituto Boliviano de Investigación iii Forestal, Bolivia) for her assistance in the development of the fieldwork used in this research, and to all researchers of the project who contributed. I must also thank the people of the Provincia de Guarayos (Bolivia), some of the most hospitable and welcoming people I have met. Further contributions of stakeholders to this work have been important and I must recognise the participation of local stakeholders in workshops performed in Santa Cruz (Bolivia), Jalisco (Mexico), and Pará (Brazil). From the PROTEIN2FOOD project, I want to thank Dr Sven-Erik Jacobsen (University of Copenhagen, Denmark) for his inputs and suggestions concerning the impacts of climate change on protein-rich crops across Europe, Andreas Detzel (IFEU, Germany) for his feedback and ideas on the trend analysis, to all researchers who provided comments and recommendations, and to the stakeholders of the two workshops performed within the project in Caserta (Italy) and Freising (Germany). During the development of this research I was extremely fortunate to participate in a summer school for doctoral students hosted by IRI-THESys (Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems), Humboldt University (Berlin). The focus on human-environment systems and participatory methods for co-production and co-producing helped me to envisage and develop a more holistic perspective for academic research, readily applied in this doctoral investigation. In particular, I must thank Professors Tobias Krüger and Jörg Niewöhner for their insightful and thought provoking approach. I want to thank the members of my pre-doctoral thesis defence committee Professors Ana Tarquis Alfonso, Carlos Gregorio Hernández Díaz-Ambrona, and Irene Blanco. Their invaluable comments improved this document, its focus, and approach greatly. I must further voice my thanks to the institutional support provided by Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, specifically the School of Agricultural, Food, and Biosystems Engineering, particularly the Department of Agricultural Economics, Statistics, and Business Management and the Research Centre for the Management of Agricultural and Environmental Risks (CEIGRAM). These centres have nurtured me over the past 4 years and have offered me an inspiring research environment within which to develop this work. In particular, I must thank the heads of both entities during this time, Professors Isabel Bardaji Azcárat...

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Section: Forest Vulnerability and Landscape-scale Trade-offsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drivers, impacts, and policy options to address land use changes at multiple scales : implications of food production, rural livelihoods, and ecosystem conservation

Manners¹

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“…Extreme events, such as floods, droughts, and heat/cold waves, are one of the most destructive natural disasters and have severe impacts on ecosystem services, agriculture productivity, and society [1][2][3]. Unlike mean climate, the spatio-temporal variations in extreme events are more sensitive to climate change [4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio-Temporal Variations in the Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Yangtze River Basin, China during 1961–2020

et al. 2021

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Based on daily maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), and precipitation of the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) from 1961 to 2020, we employed the trend analysis method and correlation analysis method to analyze spatiotemporal variations in 10 extreme indices and their associations with atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Results indicated that maximum Tmax (TXx), maximum Tmin (TNx), and minimum Tmin (TNn) all increased significantly, at rates of 0.19 °C, 0.19 °C, and 0.37 °C per decade, respectively, whereas minimum Tmax (TXn) did not show any significant trend. The diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased by 0.09 °C per decade as minimum temperatures increased faster than maximum temperatures. TNx and TNn increased significantly in the majority of the YRB, but TXn showed no significant increases. TXn increased significantly in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. The DTR increased significantly in the Jinsha River Basin and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Rx1day (maximum 1-day precipitation), SDII (Simple daily intensity index) and R99p (extremely wet-day precipitation) increased significantly, at rates of 1.12 mm, 0.09 mm, and 5.87 mm per decade, respectively, but the trends of Rx5day (maximum 5-day precipitation) and PRCPTOT (total wet-day precipitation) were not significant. However, the trends of precipitation extreme indices were not statistically significant in most of the YRB. In the future, maximum temperature and minimum temperature might increase while DTR might decrease. But, the trends of precipitation extremes in the future were ambiguous. Nearly all the extreme indices were related to the variability of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) in the YRB. In addition, the correlations between extreme temperature indices and AMO are higher than that of extreme precipitation indices.

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“…Extreme events such as floods, droughts, and hot and cold waves may be more affected by climate change than averages, in that even a small change in the mean climate parameters may be associated with a large change in extreme event frequency and intensity (IPCC, 2012; Katz & Brown, 1992; Meehl, Zwiers, Evans, & Knutson, 2000). These extremes have a strong impact on natural ecosystems and human activities, such as agricultural production, urban planning, water resources management and human health (Easterling et al, 2000; IPCC, 2013; Ngo & Horton, 2016; Vogt, Vogt, & Gmur, 2016; Wang, Gebremichael, & Yan, 2010). Changes in climate extreme events such as drought, floods, and heat waves are a disaster for human communities and environmental ecosystems (Easterling et al, 2000; Mann et al, 2017; Sisco, Bosetti, & Weber, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed and projected trends of extreme precipitation and maximum temperature during 1992–2100 in Isfahan province, Iran using REMO model and copula theory

Mirakbari

Mesbahzadeh

Sardoo

et al. 2020

Natural Resource Modeling

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Meteorological extreme events have a major impact on water resources, economic development, and ecosystem health. In this study, maximum precipitation and maximum temperature indices were derived for Isfahan province, in central Iran, over the historical and future (2020-2100) periods. Precipitation and maximum temperature data from the REMO model under RCP4.5 scenario were used to investigate changes in extreme values over the future period. The results showed that extreme precipitation in the historical and future periods has respectively a decreasing and increasing trend. Based on the extreme indices, temperature in the study area has a significant increasing trend in the baseline and future period. Various combinations of extreme precipitation indicators were created for joint modeling by copula theory. Copula modeling for the three weather stations for which REMO had satisfactory performance in simulating extremes over the historic period showed that the average return period of extreme precipitation combinations will be reduced in the future period compared to the historical period at Daran and Shahreza, while the average return period of combinations will have both increasing and decreasing trends at Naeen. Recommendations for Resource Managers• Knowing information about the probability of occurrence of extreme precipitation with a certain value that exceeds a certain threshold will help planning for water resource systems under drought conditions and future increasing temperature.• The joint return period of extreme precipitation can help to know the return period of extreme events such as floods and droughts.• The findings of this study are important to assess the prediction of climate extreme. Also, these results can be useful to provide the appropriate strategies for water resources managers in drought conditions under future increasing temperature. K E Y W O R D S climate change, Copula, extreme precipitation and maximum temperature indices, REMO

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Vulnerability of tropical forest ecosystems and forest dependent communities to droughts

Cited by 26 publications

References 90 publications

Drivers, impacts, and policy options to address land use changes at multiple scales : implications of food production, rural livelihoods, and ecosystem conservation

Drivers, impacts, and policy options to address land use changes at multiple scales : implications of food production, rural livelihoods, and ecosystem conservation

Spatio-Temporal Variations in the Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Yangtze River Basin, China during 1961–2020

Observed and projected trends of extreme precipitation and maximum temperature during 1992–2100 in Isfahan province, Iran using REMO model and copula theory

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