Vulnerability of the economy to the potential disturbances of energy supply: A logic-based model with application to the case of China

Determinants of Energy Supply Security: An Econometric Analysis For Turkey

“…In this study, the following ad hoc model is formed, by using the indicators determined by the empirical literature (Gupta, 2008;Kruyt et al, 2009;Jansen, 2004;Gnansounou, 2010;Cabalu, 2010 Total primary energy supply, total primary energy consumption, total primary energy import, per capita energy consumption, fossil fuel consumption (petrol and coal), fossil fuel energy consumption, renewable energy ratio are measured in terms of energy unit for Tep. (ton equivalent petrol/oil); total fossil fuel CO 2 emission is measured in tons; and world oil prices are measured in US dollars.…”

“…The availability of energy sources, especially renewable, is a critical issue for energy supply security due to an unequally distribution of fossil fuels on the world. The definition also includes sustainability of a reliable, affordable energy supply within both short-term and long-term (Gnansounou, 2010;Chester, 2010).…”

“…The results of such kind of macroeconomic models are effective and reliable references used by policymakers who tries to reduce economic vulnerability against any energy supply disruptions. Macroeconomic Models are also divided into two types; as Multivariate Time Series Models (TSM) and General Equilibrium Models (CGE) (Jansen, 2004;Gnansounou, 2010).…”

“…By means of composite index, security of supply will be evaluated for all dimensions. The composite index (composite/aggregated) approach is widely used in the literature of energy economics to measure definitions which have multi-dimentions (Jansen, 2004;Kruyt et al, 2009;Gnansounou, 2010). The arithmetic mean, weighted arithmetic mean or geometric mean, is a commonly used method for indices or combination of variables (aggregation).…”

“…However soaring energy prices, after oil shocks, cause a decrease in energy consumption in the long-term. Besides resulting in inflation, imbalance in foreign trade as well as balance of payments, high unemployment, business loss for companies and mistrust by consumers (Costantini et al, 2007;Gnansounou, 2008;Gnansounou, 2010). Energy prices are usually important drivers of total energy demand and supply.…”