Vulnerability of Subarctic and Arctic breeding birds

Abstract

Recent research predicts that future climate change will result in substantial biodiversity loss associated with loss of habitat for species. However, the magnitude of the anticipated biodiversity impacts are less well known. Studies of species vulnerability to climate change through species distribution models are often limited to assessing the extent of species' exposure to the consequences of climate change to their local environment, neglecting species sensitivity to global change. The likelihood that species or populations will decline or go extinct due to climate change also depends on the general sensitivity and adaptive capacity of species. Hence, analyses should also obtain more accurate assessments of their vulnerability. We addressed this by constructing a vulnerability matrix for 180 bird species currently breeding in Subarctic and Arctic Europe that integrates a climatic exposure-based vulnerability index and a natural-history trait-based vulnerability index. Species that may need extra conservation attention based on our matrix include the Great Snipe (Gallinago media), the Rough-legged Buzzard (Buteo lagopus), the Red-throated Pipit (Anthus cervinus), the Common Swift (Apus apus), the Horned Lark (Eremophila alpestris), and the Bar-tailed Godwit (Limosa lapponica). Our vulnerability matrix stresses the importance of looking beyond exposure to climate change when species conservation is the aim. For the species that scored high in our matrix the future in the region looks grim and targeted conservation actions, incorporating macroecological and global perspectives, may be needed to alleviate severe population declines. We further demonstrate that climate change is predicted to significantly reduce the current breeding range of species adapted to cold climates in Subarctic and Arctic Europe. The number of incubation days and whether the species was a habitat specialist or not were also among the variables most strongly related to predicted contraction or expansion of species' breeding ranges. This approach may aid the identification of vulnerable bird species worldwide.

An uncertain future for the endemic Galliformes of the Caucasus

“…These characteristics mean that they scored 0.55 and 0.60 respectively on the traits-index. Combining the exposure-index and the traits-index places the snowcock firmly in the "Most vulnerable" category of the vulnerability matrix developed by Hof et al (2017) whilst the grouse was on the border between the "Most vulnerable" and the "Trait vulnerable" categories.…”

“…We followed the vulnerability matrix for birds that consists of an exposure-index and a trait-index developed by Hof et al (2017) to assess 1) the species' extent of exposure to climate change by predicting the impact of climate change on their current and future potential geographic distribution ranges and subsequently classifying their vulnerability on an exposure-based index, and 2) the species' adaptive capacity and sensitivity to climate change by using a natural-history trait-based vulnerability index.…”

“…Instead, the proportional increase/decrease of the species' ranges from the current to 2070 were included in the exposure-index in which N0% increase was scored with 0 points, 0% to 25% decrease was scored with 1 point and N25% decrease with 2 points. The scoring for stable area however remained the same as in Hof et al (2017).…”

“…The traits-index of Hof et al (2017) is based on the following traits: migrating, diet breadth, habitat specialist, ground nesting, average clutch size, number of incubation days, number of fledging days, length of the breeding season, typical number of broods, adult survival rates, age at first breeding, and maximum lifespan (for scoring see Hof et al, 2017). We consulted the literature (Cramp et al, 1979;Gokhelashvili et al, 2003) and sources on the internet (http://zverevedia.ru/, http:// www.ebirds.ru/, http://www.egir.ru) to obtain information for as many of these traits as possible, but we were unable to find information with regard to adult survival rates and maximum lifespan.…”

“…Therefore, a relatively large proportion of endemic species are predicted to go extinct in future due to climate change (Malcolm et al, 2006;Thuiller et al, 2006). In addition to exposure to climate change, several natural history traits of, amongst others, high elevation species, such as thermal tolerance, rarity, habitat specialism and ground nesting behaviour (Deutsch et al, 2008;Foden et al, 2013;Hof et al, 2017), may also make them increasingly vulnerable to climate change.…”