Vulnerability of species to climate change in the Southwest: threatened, endangered, and at-risk species at Fort Huachuca, Arizona

Abstract

Future climate change is anticipated to result in ecosystem changes, and consequently, many species are expected to become increasingly vulnerable to extinction. This scenario is of particular concern for threatened, endangered, and at-risk species (TER-S) or other rare species. The response of species to climate change is uncertain and will be the outcome of complex interactions and processes. Nevertheless, a simple flexible strategy is needed to help integrate climate change into management planning and actions. This assessment uses SAVS, a vulnerability scoring tool based on ecological principles, to rank individual species of interest within the Fort Huachuca region according to predicted climate change responses and associated population declines balanced with responses expected to incur resilience or population increases. Further, specific areas of vulnerability, research needs, and management implications are identified for each species. Based solely on predicted response to climate change, northern Mexican gartersnake and southwestern willow flycatcher are the most vulnerable to population declines. Results also suggest that climate change will make management of some TER-S more difficult. Several critical management areas are identified that can mitigate negative impacts to benefit multiple species, including fire and fuels, invasive species, natural and artificial waters, and landscape-scale planning. Management planning should be in place that will assist species impacted by extreme events such as prolonged drought, severe wildfires, and intense flooding. The assessment process was also used to identify areas where climate change may present opportunities, as opposed to challenges, for management of TER-S.

Reproductive response of Arizona Grasshopper Sparrows to weather patterns and habitat structure

“…Small-bodied birds, such as sparrows, in arid ecosystems often survive near the limits of their physiological tolerances for heat and dehydration (Wolf andWalsberg 1996, Whitfield et al 2015) and may be vulnerable to such stressors associated with climate change Wolf 2010, McKechnie et al 2012). The climate in the southwestern U.S. is projected to become hotter (Coe et al 2012, Finch 2012 and, although more varied, many models also predict reduced annual rainfall, increased aridity, or changes in seasonality (Coe et al 2012, Finch 2012, Bagne and Finch 2013. Increased frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial extent of droughts, heat waves, and extreme precipitation events are also predicted (Finch 2012, Garfin et al 2013.…”

High resolution spatiotemporal patterns of flow at the landscape scale in montane non‐perennial streams

“…They can also be favorable habitats for species such as the Huachuca water umbel ( Lilaeopsis schaffneriana ssp. Recurva ), an herbaceous, semi‐aquatic perennial plant which needs a permanently wet environment (Bagne & Finch, 2013). For non‐perennial reaches, we are able to compare the limited periods of sediment moisture or surface water to the phenology of species of interest.…”

Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Intermountain Region [Part 2]

“…Maintain natural corridors (streams, riparian) where they exist; maintain large habitat blocks; maintain habitat diversity in appropriate proximities Preventive and early intervention programs to control invasive species can be applied where range expansion is predicted (Davies and Johnson 2011). Targeting the vulnerabilities of undesirable species fits well with "no regrets" and "win-win" strategies of climate change adaptation (Bagne and Finch 2013;Peterson et al 2011b). Changing fire regimes are another climate stressor common to many species in the IAP region (Chapter 8).…”