Vulnerability of South African animal taxa to climate change

Abstract

The responsiveness of South African fauna to climate change events is poorly documented and not routinely incorporated into regional conservation planning. We model the likely range alterations of a representative suite of 179 animal species to climate change brought about by the doubling of CO2 concentrations. This scenario is expected to cause a mean temperature increase of 2 °C. We applied a multivariate climate envelope approach and evaluated model performance using the most comprehensive bird data set. The results were encouraging, although model performance was inconsistent in the eastern coastal area of the country. The levels of climate change induced impacts on species ranges varied from little impact to local extinction. Some 17% of species expanded their ranges, 78% displayed range contraction (4–98%), 3% showed no response and 2% became locally extinct. The majority of range shifts (41%) were in an easterly direction, reflecting the east–west aridity gradient across the country. Species losses were highest in the west. Substantially smaller westward shifts were present in some eastern species. This may reflect a response to the strong altitudinal gradient in this region, or may be a model artifact. Species range change (composite measure reflecting range contraction and displacement) identified selected species that could act as climate change indicator taxa. Red‐data and vulnerable species showed similar responses but were more likely to display range change (58% vs. 43% for all species). Predictions suggest that the flagship, Kruger National Park conservation area may loose up to 66% of the species included in this analysis. This highlights the extent of the predicted range shifts, and indicates why conflicts between conservation and other land uses are likely to escalate under conditions of climate change.

Consequences of global climate change for geographic distributions of cerrado tree species

“…This study represents one of few broad-spectrum surveys of anticipated climate change effects on biodiversity at the species level carried out to date (Bakkenes et al 2002, Erasmus et al 2002. By focusing on the trees of one biome, which has extremely high endemism (44%) among plant taxa (Myers et.…”

Past, present, and future distribution of Afromontane rodents (Muridae: Otomys) reflect climate-change predicted biome changes

“…ENMs have been used to predict suitable habitats of rare species for their conservation management (e.g. Armstrong 2009, Tarrant andArmstrong 2013) as well as to predict niche shifts of species due to future climate change (Erasmus et al 2002, Coetzee et al 2009, García-Domínguez et al 2014. Climate change is expected to cause significant biodiversity losses in the future, including in South Africa (Erasmus et al 2002, Thomas et al 2004, Hannah et al 2005, Pereira et al 2010, McCain and Colwell 2011.…”

Extinction risk from climate change

“…For each species we use the modelled association between current climates (such as temperature, precipitation and seasonality) and present-day distributions to estimate current distributional areas [7][8][9][10][11][12] . This 'climate envelope' represents the conditions under which populations of a species currently persist in the face of competitors and natural enemies.…”

“…This 'climate envelope' represents the conditions under which populations of a species currently persist in the face of competitors and natural enemies. Future distributions are estimated by assuming that current envelopes are retained and can be projected for future climate scenarios [7][8][9][10][11][12] . We assume that a species either has no limits to dispersal such that its future distribution becomes the entire area projected by the climate envelope model or that it is incapable of dispersal, in which case the new distribution is the overlap between current and future potential distributions (for example, species with little dispersal or that inhabit fragmented landscapes) 11 .…”