Vulnerability and adaptation of US shellfisheries to ocean acidification

Ekstrom, Julia A.; Suatoni, Lisa; Cooley, Sarah R.; Pendleton, Linwood H.; Waldbusser, George G.; Cinner, Joshua E.; Ritter, Jessica; Langdon, Chris; Hooidonk, Ruben van; Gledhill, D. K.; Wellman, Katharine F.; Beck, Michael W.; Brander, Luke; Rittschof, Dan; Doherty, Carolyn; Edwards, Peter; Portela, Rosimeiry

doi:10.1038/nclimate2508

Cited by 281 publications

(230 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Due to Hector's time step of 1 year, we may be overestimating the time when ocean acidification reaches a critical threshold. We also note that other factors such as eutrophication, river discharge, and upwelling will likely increase the probability that coastal regions will experience the effects of ocean acidification sooner than the projected openocean values in Hector (Ekstrom et al, 2015). Using [H + ] as a proxy for pH, we find that [H + ] is sensitive to Q 10 and ocean circulation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 78%

Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

et al. 2016

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Abstract. Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high-(> 55 • ) and low-latitude oceans (< 55 • ). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels ( Ar ) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H + ] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO 2 concentrations -Q 10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in Ar saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q 10 . We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulating both current observations and large-scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 78%

Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

et al. 2016

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“…• Temperature increases (Carter et al 2014) • Moderate increases in average rainfall and increases in variability (Carter et al 2014;Moser et al 2014) • Altered hydrology with an increase in average and variability of river flows, lake water levels, groundwater recharge, and freshwater outflow into coastal systems (Georgakakos et al 2014;Obeysekera et al 2015) • Changes in large-and meso-scale circulation features in the Gulf of Mexico • Changes in ocean stratification (Doney et al 2014) • Changes in the frequency and intensity of harmful algal blooms (Moore et al 2008) • Greater frequency and severity of storms (Carter 2014) • Sea level rise; Florida is highly vulnerable and this is perhaps the single most important driver of climate change impacts in the state (Carter et al 2014) • Salt water intrusion (FWC 2009;Barlow & Reichard 2010) • Ocean acidification , although higher latitudes tend to face a greater challenge (Ekstrom et al 2015) • Changes in coastal and riparian geomorphology (Glick 2006;FWC 2008;Moser et al 2014) • Changes in infrastructure (e.g. boat ramps, docks, roads; Moser et al 2014) • Mitigation policies (e.g., a carbon tax on fuel or carbon credits for sequestration in shellfish farming) …”

Section: Drivers Of Climate Change Impacts and Confounding Factors Inmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is, therefore, likely that the quality of current shellfish growing areas will change and the distributions of optimal areas shift (Allison et al 2011;Anderson et al 2013). In addition to these general changes, ocean acidification poses a fundamental threat to shellfish culture because it affects the ability of mollusks, particularly their larval stages, to build shells (Ekstrom et al 2015). Recognized as a major threat to shellfish culture at the national and international level, ocean acidification is, however, expected to progress comparatively slowly in the southeastern U.S., including the marine waters around Florida (Ekstrom et al 2015).…”

Section: Climate Change Impacts On Production and Producersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impacts on Florida’s Fisheries and Aquaculture Sectors and Options for Adaptation

Lorenzen¹,

Ainsworth²,

Baker³

et al. 2017

Florida’s Climate: Changes, Variations, &Amp; Impacts

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Florida supports diverse marine and freshwater fisheries and a significant aquaculture industry with a combined economic impact of approximately 15 billion US$. We begin by describing the characteristics Key Messages• Sea level rise, more frequent severe storms, coastal habitat loss associated with both factors, changes in nutrient dynamics, and ocean acidification are likely to impact the productivity of Florida's marine fisheries. Some of these factors will also affect fisheries access.• Florida's freshwater fisheries will be impacted by increased hydrological variability, increased temperatures, and more frequent severe storms. Shallow lakes may respond by switching from a clear to a turbid, phytoplankton-dominated state that provides poor sport fishing. Greater hydrological variability will also exacerbate fishing access issues.• Among the aquaculture sectors, shellfish aquaculture is particularly sensitive to multiple drivers including sea level rise, coastal habitat loss, increased frequency of harmful algal blooms and ocean acidification. Ornamental fish culture and other forms of intensive aquaculture under controlled conditions will be relatively insensitive to climate change.• Key adaptation options for marine fisheries include switching of species, locations and fishing methods, while adapting catch limits to changes in productivity. In freshwater fisheries, on the other hand, water and habitat management will be key to adaptation. Change in farming methods will be important in aquaculture, along with species and location changes, particularly in the shellfish industry. Aquaculture for fisheries enhancement and ecological restoration can aid adaptation in both marine and freshwater fisheries. Adaptation will benefit from awareness of drivers and impact pathways, monitoring of a broad suite of impact indicators, and adaptive decision-making. 428 • KAI LORENZEN ET AL.

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“…Forecasting acute ocean acidification events for specific locations, however, is in its infancy (New ocean forecast could help predict fish habitat six months in advance, 2013). At this time, supporting industries despite limited knowledge about ocean acidification's effects on marine resources and dependent human communities currently depends on flexible precautionary planning enlightened by simple vulnerability-type assessments (e.g., Ekstrom et al, 2015). Nevertheless, knowledge exchanges among businesses that have been affected and those that have not can increase preparedness, as can development of informal or formal plans for an uncertain future (Capson and Guinotte, 2014).…”

Section: Support Marine Industries and Jobsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Model-based studies have estimated the potential costs of ocean acidification impacts to shellfish harvests in the US at $75-187 million a year , global shellfish harvests at $6 billion a year (Narita et al, 2012), and coral reef impacts at $0-900 billion a year (Brander et al, 2009). Recent studies have begun exploring ocean acidification's threat to human communities with risk assessment frameworks (Cooley et al, 2012;Ekstrom et al, 2015;Mathis et al, 2015), which shed light not only on the areas at greater total risk, but also on the characteristics of the socioeconomic system that contribute to this risk.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%