Vulnerability analysis of Nigeria's agricultural output growth and climate change

Abstract

PurposeAside from oil, the Nigerian economy is largely agrarian, which is rain-fed. Hence the criticality of understanding climate change and its impact on agricultural output is more pressing than ever. This is in line with Sustainable Development Goal 13 which is to take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts. Regardless, Nigeria has in the past five decades experienced a significant increase in temperature, in the range of 10 to over 30 degree Celsius. Therefore, managing the effect of climate change on agricultural output now has the colouration of a developmental challenge.Design/methodology/approachIn light of this, this study gives due consideration to the impact of climate change on agricultural output between the years 1986 and 2015. For the purpose of analysis, descriptive statistics, unit root test and the ordinary least square (OLS) estimation technique were employed.FindingsFindings from the study reveal that the average annual rainfall, temperature and forest area positively influence agricultural output, whereas drought, floods and agricultural nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions have negative impact on agricultural output. The study suggests the need for a regulatory framework and also an explicit national agricultural policy essential to offset the negative effects of climate change especially on agricultural output.Originality/valueAs Nigeria look to diversify her economy which relied on oil, agriculture is among the alternative sector hoping to drive her economic growth, therefore, it is pertinent to examine the current output in the sector given the effects of climate change.

The impacts of climate change on water resources and its effect on food security in Nigeria

“…In recent years, there has been an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall in some regions of the country. This has led to more frequent and severe droughts in these areas, resulting in a decrease in the availability of freshwater for irrigation, drinking, and other essential needs [14]. Studies have shown that the northern regions of Nigeria have been particularly affected by the changes in precipitation patterns.…”

“…Increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall, leading to more frequent and severe droughts in some regions [8,14] Impacts of drought and flooding Extreme weather events have led to water scarcity, affecting water resources and food security [10,15] Effects on water-borne diseases and pests Increase in the incidence of water-borne diseases due to changes in temperature and precipitation patterns [10] Effects on food security Changes in crop yields and availability due to changes in precipitation and temperature patterns, leading to food insecurity [11,12] Impacts on livestock and fisheries Changes in distribution and abundance of fish and other aquatic species, affecting livelihoods N/A Adaptation strategies and policies Need for improved water management, conservation practices, early warning systems, and support for vulnerable communities [13] Climate change is expected to have a wide range of effects on surface and groundwater resources. Some of the key ways that climate change is likely to impact these resources include:…”