Voting under threat: Evidence from the 2020 French local elections

Leromain, Elsa; Vannoorenberghe, Gonzague

doi:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2022.102204

Cited by 15 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…This result is in‐line with our expectations and the calculus of voting theory. Similar results have been found in France (Leromain and Vannoorenberghe, 2021; Noury et al., 2021) and the USA (Morris and Miller, 2021).…”

Section: Estimation Results6supporting

confidence: 82%

COVID‐19 lockdown policy and national elections: A quasi‐experimental analysis of Ghana's 2020 Election

Ayifah

Ayifah²

2023

Int Social Sci J

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The COVID‐19 pandemic has undoubtedly had a significant adverse effect on world democracies, especially elections scheduled in 2020. Per constitutional requirements, Ghana's presidential and parliamentary elections were held on 7 December 2020. Using longitudinal national election data, we investigate the effect of the COVID‐19 lockdown policy on the number of registered voters, voter turnout and vote shares of the incumbent and main opposition parties. We took advantage of the partial lockdown that was imposed in some parts of the country and employed the difference‐in‐difference quasi‐experimental method. The results show that the COVID‐19 lockdown had a positive effect on the number of registered voters and a negative effect on voter turnout. In addition, we did not find any incumbency advantage or disadvantage resulting from the COVID‐19 lockdown but the COVID‐19 lockdown had a positive effect on the vote share of the opposition party. These results suggest the need for other voting methods such as early voting, increasing the number of polling stations/voting centres, electronic voting and vote‐by‐mail which involve lesser social interaction and hence may encourage electoral participation during health pandemics.

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Section: Estimation Results6supporting

confidence: 82%

COVID‐19 lockdown policy and national elections: A quasi‐experimental analysis of Ghana's 2020 Election

Ayifah

Ayifah²

2023

Int Social Sci J

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“…While in 2014, 63.5 percent of eligible voters went to cast their ballot in the first round of the elections, on March 15, 2020 less than half of eligible voters (44.7 percent) went to vote. This drop in participation was likely due to the circulation of the virus, as confirmed by recent studies [ 54 – 56 ].…”

Section: Municipal Elections In Francesupporting

confidence: 67%

How COVID-19 affects voting for incumbents: Evidence from local elections in France

Morisi,

Cloléry,

Kon Kam King

et al. 2024

PLoS ONE

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How do voters react to an ongoing natural threat? Do voters sanction or reward incumbents even when incumbents cannot be held accountable because an unforeseeable natural disaster is unfolding? We address this question by investigating voters’ reactions to the early spread of COVID-19 in the 2020 French municipal elections. Using a novel, fine-grained measure of the circulation of the virus based on excess-mortality data, we find that support for incumbents increased in areas that were particularly hard hit by the virus. Incumbents from both left and right gained votes in areas more strongly affected by COVID-19. We provide suggestive evidence for two mechanisms that can explain our findings: an emotional channel related to feelings of fear and anxiety, and a prospective-voting channel, related to the ability of incumbents to act more swiftly against the diffusion of the virus than challengers.

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“…Recent evidence suggests that the above-mentioned dynamics have also taken place during the COVID-19 pandemic (Cipullo and Le Moglie, 2022;Flanders et al, 2020;Haute et al, 2021;Leromain and Vannoorenberghe, 2022;Neihouser et al, 2022;Vázquez-Carrero et al, 2020). Therefore, this article aligns with the previous and new and limited literature investigating the impact of the crisis on voting behaviour (Cipullo and Le Moglie, 2022;Ivănescu, 2022;Leromain and Vannoorenberghe, 2022;Neihouser et al, 2022;Noury et al, 2021;Picchio and Santolini, 2022).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Keep the (social) distance! Turnout and risk perception during health crisis

Stancea,

Muntean

2024

Humanit Soc Sci Commun

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This article investigates the relationship between risk perception and electoral participation of citizens. To assess this, we use the case study of the novel coronavirus and its relationship with voter turnout during the 2020 Romanian elections. We assess the relationship between COVID-19 and citizens’ intention to cast a vote by employing an individual model. Additionally, using the share rate of the infected population with COVID-19, we examine the association between the intensity of the outbreak across counties and electoral participation. Either though our research is cross-sectional and focuses on covariation rather than causal relationships, provides insightful results. The individual model shows that the higher the risk perception of infection is, the lower the intention to cast a vote. The aggregated exploratory model employed shows that an increase in the percentage of the shared infected population decreases the chance of electoral participation.

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Voting under threat: Evidence from the 2020 French local elections

Cited by 15 publications

References 24 publications

COVID‐19 lockdown policy and national elections: A quasi‐experimental analysis of Ghana's 2020 Election

COVID‐19 lockdown policy and national elections: A quasi‐experimental analysis of Ghana's 2020 Election

How COVID-19 affects voting for incumbents: Evidence from local elections in France

Keep the (social) distance! Turnout and risk perception during health crisis

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