Voting Technology, Vote-by-Mail, and Residual Votes in California, 1990-2010

Abstract

This paper examines how the growth in vote-by-mail and changes in voting technologies led to changes in the residual vote rate in California from 1990 to 2010. We find that in California's presidential elections, counties that abandoned punch cards in favor of optical scanning enjoyed a significant improvement in the residual vote rate. However, these findings do not always translate to other races. For instance, find that the InkaVote system in Los Angeles has been a mixed success, performing very well in presidential and gubernatorial races, fairly well for ballot propositions, and poorly in Senate races. We also conduct the first analysis of the effects of the rise of vote-by-mail on residual votes. Regardless of the race, increased use of the mails to cast ballots is robustly associated with a rise in the residual vote rate. The effect is so strong that the rise of voting by mail in California has mostly wiped out all the reductions in residual votes that were due to improved voting technologies since the early 1990s.

Making Votes Count with Internet Voting

“…Lott 2009), the findings from this literature have remained contradictory. To be sure, several studies report evidence that precinct scanners (e.g., Alvarez et al 2013;Kimball and Kropf 2008) and DREs (e.g., Stewart 2006) tend to reduce residual vote rates, including (for the case of DREs) two studies conducted outside the U.S., one in Brazil (Fujiwara 2015) and the other in the Netherlands (Allers and Kooreman 2009). Particularly promising, Tomz and Van Houweling (2003) reported evidence from two U.S. states, Louisiana and South Carolina, that DREs significantly reduce the gap between African American and white voters in terms of voided ballots.…”

Abstention, Protest, and Residual Votes in the 2016 Election

“…However, roll-off is useless in conducting aggregate-level studies that focus on the top of the ticket. Despite some continued use of the measure (e.g., Reilly and Richey, 2011), the residual vote has largely replaced roll-off, even when the focus of study has been down-ballot races (e.g., Alvarez, Beckett, and Stewart, 2013).…”

“…SeeAnsolabehere (2002),Leib and Dittmer (2002),Knack and Kropf (2003),Brady (2004),Buchler, Jarvis, and McNulty (2004),Ansolabehere and Reeves (2012),Hanmer and Traugott (2004),Sinclair and Alvarez (2004),Bullock and Hood (2005),Herron and Sekhon (2005),Stewart (2006),Warf (2006),Everett et al (2008),Allers and Kooreman (2009), Campbell and Byrne (2009), Hanmer, Park, and Traugott (2010,McDonald (2011), Alvarez, Beckett, andStewart (2013),Damschroder (2013), andKropf and Kimball (2013).…”

Electronic Democracy

“…First, voters often make mistakes on their postal ballots that lead to their vote not being counted. They don't fill in the bubble on an optical scan ballot correctly, don't "X" the box on the ballot appropriately, or otherwise make a mistake with the ballot that leads to their vote not being counted (Alvarez/Stewart/ Beckett 2011). Postal voting also has a second problem, which is that the bal-lot may not get back to the election official in time to be counted or the voter may fail to complete the absentee process correctly so that they ballot is not counted.…”