Voting “Against Islamization”? How Anti‐Islamic Right‐Wing, Populist Political Campaign Ads Influence Explicit and Implicit Attitudes Toward Muslims as Well as Voting Preferences

Abstract

We explore the effects of anti‐Islamic right‐wing, populist political campaign ads on voting intention for a right‐wing populist party using a quota‐based online experiment (N = 174). Additionally, we investigate implicit attitudes (i.e., automatic affective associations) and explicit attitudes (i.e., overtly expressed evaluations) toward Muslims as underlying mechanisms of these effects. We find that exposure to the political campaign ads prompts explicit hostile attitudes toward Muslims mediated by implicit attitudes. Explicit attitudes in turn shape voting intention. Moreover, implicit attitudes toward Muslims predict voting preference beyond the influence of explicit attitudes. Thus, resentments toward Muslims may foster voters’ support for anti‐Islamic right‐wing populist parties even “under the radar” of conscious awareness. In sum, this study demonstrates for the first time the entire process of right‐wing, populist political campaign ads’ effects on voting preferences via implicit and explicit attitudes toward Muslims.

Terrorist Attacks, Stereotyping, and Attitudes Toward Immigrants: The Case of the Manchester Bombing

“…Especially relevant from our findings is the fact that stereotypical effects are the strongest among the cosmopolitan who should be in principle the most immunized against immigrant's stereotyping. Recent literature on implicit stereotyping (Arendt, Mar quart, and Matthews, 2015; Schmuck and Matthews, 2019) is yet in line with our findings. Cosmopolitans might be more reluctant to express overtly negative opinions toward immigrants, but terrorist attacks might prompt explicit unfavorable attitudes toward immigrants—especially among those for whom stereotyping occurs implicitly.…”

What Determines Voting Behaviors of Muslim Minorities in Europe: Muslim Identity or Left‐Right Ideology?

“…For voting in Belgium, the significance of ideology is in line with extensive research on the importance of left-right ideology for majority members' voting in Europe (van der Brug et al, 2000;Winter et al, 2006). However, given the hostile attitudes of right-wing parties against Muslim minorities (Schmuck & Matthes, 2019), overall probabilities of Muslim voting for the right in Belgium were low. Still, a small percentage of Muslim minorities across several countries such as the United Kingdom, the United States, and France vote for right-wing parties (Clemens, 2017;Khemilat, 2017;Pew Research Center, 2017c), and our research shows that ideology might play a role.…”

“…It is less certain whether left-right ideology would significantly predict voting behaviors of Turkish-Muslim minorities in Belgium so that the left-leaning would vote for left-wing parties while the right-leaning would vote for right-wing parties (main effect of ideology). Given that most right-wing parties in Western Europe oppose Muslims and Islam (Schmuck & Matthes, 2019), it is also possible that ideology does not significantly predict their voting behaviors and that they would vote for left-wing parties regardless of their ideological position (no main effect of ideology).…”

“…Parties may also oppose certain religious or ethnic identity groups as in the case of the right-wing parties' opposition to religious and ethnic minorities. This opposition then becomes a driver of their voter potential (van der Brug & Fennema, 2007;Schmuck & Matthes, 2019). These will also affect the party preferences of the individuals who identity with those religious and ethnic groups.…”

Mating Call, Dog Whistle, Trigger: Assymetric Alignments, Race, and the Use of Reactionary Religious Rhetoric in American Politics

“…Experimental evidence lends support to this theory. First, several experimental studies suggest that subliminal religious cues or primes increase prejudice toward moral or religious out-groups like atheists, gays, or Muslims (Bloom et al 2015;Johnson et al 2012;LaBouff et al 2012;Ramsay et al 2014;Schmuck and Matthes 2019;Yilmaz et al 2016). Studies have theorized diverse mechanisms here, but at minimum findings suggest that because religion is fundamentally social, and religious identities and symbols are constitutive of in-group boundaries, religious cues implicitly activate an in-group vs. out-group response.…”