“…Most load forecasting theories are based on time series analysis and auto-regression models, including the vector auto-regression model (VAR) [2,3], the autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) [4][5][6], and so on. Time series smoothness prediction methods are criticized by researchers for their weakness of non-linear fitting capability.…”
Due to the electricity market deregulation and integration of renewable resources, electrical load forecasting is becoming increasingly important for the Chinese government in recent years. The electric load cannot be exactly predicted only by a single model, because the short-term electric load is disturbed by several external factors, leading to the characteristics of volatility and instability. To end this, this paper proposes a hybrid model based on wavelet transform (WT) and least squares support vector machine (LSSVM), which is optimized by an improved cuckoo search (CS). To improve the accuracy of prediction, the WT is used to eliminate the high frequency components of the previous day's load data. Additional, the Gauss disturbance is applied to the process of establishing new solutions based on CS to improve the convergence speed and search ability. Finally, the parameters of the LSSVM model are optimized by using the improved cuckoo search. According to the research outcome, the result of the implementation demonstrates that the hybrid model can be used in the short-term forecasting of the power system.
“…Most load forecasting theories are based on time series analysis and auto-regression models, including the vector auto-regression model (VAR) [2,3], the autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) [4][5][6], and so on. Time series smoothness prediction methods are criticized by researchers for their weakness of non-linear fitting capability.…”
Due to the electricity market deregulation and integration of renewable resources, electrical load forecasting is becoming increasingly important for the Chinese government in recent years. The electric load cannot be exactly predicted only by a single model, because the short-term electric load is disturbed by several external factors, leading to the characteristics of volatility and instability. To end this, this paper proposes a hybrid model based on wavelet transform (WT) and least squares support vector machine (LSSVM), which is optimized by an improved cuckoo search (CS). To improve the accuracy of prediction, the WT is used to eliminate the high frequency components of the previous day's load data. Additional, the Gauss disturbance is applied to the process of establishing new solutions based on CS to improve the convergence speed and search ability. Finally, the parameters of the LSSVM model are optimized by using the improved cuckoo search. According to the research outcome, the result of the implementation demonstrates that the hybrid model can be used in the short-term forecasting of the power system.
“…Two objective functions have been considered associated both with the minimization of the system resistive losses (18) and the capacitor deployment cost (19):…”
Section: Objective Functions and Constraintsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…9 corresponds to a physical solution, with power losses and cost computed through expressions (18) and (19), and a compensation profile associated with capacitors installed along the network. The objective function values of some selected representative solutions are presented in Table 3, and the physical characterization of three solutions are displayed in Tables 4-6.…”
Section: A1mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…More recently, heuristics [11] and mainly meta-heuristics, such as Simulated Annealing [12][13][14], Ant Colony [15], Particle Swarm Optimization [16], Plant Growth Simulation Algorithm [17] and Tabu Search [18], Fuzzy based techniques [19] and Genetic Algorithms [20], have been used to deal with the problem. Because of the characteristics of the VAR planning problem, which is a combinatorial non-linear multi-objective mixed integer problem, metaheuristics can cope with model complexity and tractability, reduce the exhaustive search in large spaces and lead to (near) Pareto optimal solutions.…”
“…In these works, the OLTC tap position planning and shunt capacitor on/off switching states have been done based on an optimal time-interval division for the forecasted daily load to decrease energy losses and improve power quality; however, there are some distribution networks uncertainties, such as load demand (LD) and renewable energy electricity generation. In this regard, for the second category, stochastic volt/VAR control with uncertain values for some random variables regardless of harmonic consideration were discussed in some works [20][21][22]. A probabilistic analysis based on a 2m-point estimated method has been employed to solve the daily volt/VAR control problem in distribution systems with uncertainty in LD and electrical power generation [20,21].…”
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