Volcanic risk assessment: Quantifying physical vulnerability in the built environment

The Communication and Risk Management of Volcanic Ballistic Hazards

“…The high kinetic and thermal energy of ballistics can puncture, dent, melt, burn and knock down structures and their associated systems, such as power supply and telecommunication masts; crater roads; and crush and potentially ignite crops (Booth 1979;Calvari et al 2006;Pistolesi et al 2008;Alatorre-Ibargüengoitia et al 2012;Wardman et al 2012;Maeno et al 2013;Fitzgerald et al 2014;Jenkins et al 2014). Blong (1981), Pomonis et al (1999) and Jenkins et al (2014) estimate a ballistic only needs 400-1000 J of kinetic energy to penetrate a metal sheet roof, far less than the estimated kinetic energy of ballistics (*10 6 J) from VEI 2-4 eruptions (Alatorre-Ibargüengoitia et al 2012). The distribution (distance from vent, direction, area and density) of ejected ballistics is controlled by the explosivity, type, size and direction of explosive eruptions, and usually creates spatially variable deposits (Gurioli et al 2013;Breard et al 2014;Fitzgerald et al 2014).…”

“…The study only considers one eruption (the last major eruption), thus is lacking eruption frequency and magnitude, and does not provide any probabilities of building damage occurring. Building vulnerability to ballistic impact has been assessed by Jenkins et al (2014) for Kanlaon and Fogo volcanoes (Philippines and Cape Verde, respectively) using estimates of energy required to penetrate roof materials by Blong (1981) and Pomonis et al (1999). This study, however, focussed only on the vulnerability of the built environment and did not include an overall assessment of hazard or risk.…”

Potential and limitations of risk scenario tools in volcanic areas through an example at Mount Cameroon

“…Wilson et al, 2012, where some threshold values of tephra loads are proposed for the vulnerability of utility networks), or even to more elaborate probabilistic fragility functions (i.e. the probability of reaching or exceeding the damage state given the intensity level), as shown in the review by Jenkins et al (2013). of utility networks) or even to more elaborate probabilistic fragility functions (i.e.…”

“…of utility networks) or even to more elaborate probabilistic fragility functions (i.e. the probability of reaching or exceeding the damage state given the intensity level), as shown in 350 the review by Jenkins and Spence (2013). All types of vulnerability models may be used in the developed toolbox, which assigns one specific vulnerability model to each type of exposed element and each type of phenomenon.…”

“…vulnerability of crops to tephra fall) or that the mechanisms are complex and depend on several factors (see, e.g. Jenkins et al, 2013). For example, the fragility of buildings to tephra fall is a function of both thickness of ash and its humidity (e.g.…”