Volcanic Hazard Assessment at the Campi Flegrei Caldera, Italy

Bevilacqua, Andrea; Macedonio, Giovanni; Neri, Augusto; Orsi, G.; Petrosino, Paola

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-37060-1_12

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 186 publications

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“…According to the Campi Flegrei National Civil Protection Plan (Piano Nazionale di Potezione Civile Campi Flegrei, [55]), together with many other western districts of Naples (i.e., Chiaiano, Arenella, Vomero, Chiaia, Posillipo, Fuorigrotta, Bagnoli, and Pianura), Soccavo is located within the Red Zone (i.e., high risk) that has to be rapidly evacuated if an eruption is approaching [56], considering that pyroclastic density currents have a destructive impact on exposed elements due to the high temperature and velocity [57][58][59]. The bradyseismic phenomenon, peculiar to the Campi Flegrei, consists of ground uplift and subsidence due to the variation of the volcano's magmatic and hydrothermal systems [60][61][62].…”

Section: Test Site Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coping Capacity, Adaptive Capacity, and Transformative Capacity Preliminary Characterization in a “Multi-Hazard” Resilience Perspective: The Soccavo District Case Study (City of Naples, Italy)

et al. 2023

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An innovative methodology for characterizing Coping Capacity (CC), Adaptive Capacity (AC), and Transformative Capacity (TC) resilience determinants in a multi-hazard territorial context is applied to the Soccavo district (Naples, Italy), located in the Campi Flegrei caldera and exposed to volcanic eruptions, ground deformations (bradyseism), earthquakes, geomorphological processes (landslides, rock falls, erosion), and climate change-related hazards (heat waves, pluvial floods). The method allowed for the identification of the CC, AC, and TC parameters that can be easily converted into qualitative–quantitative variables. Among all parameters, the method focused on multi-stakeholder and civil society engagement, which is representative of TC and variable relating to the risk perception and awareness, the urban space perception, or the people’s ability to activate bottom-up urban transformation processes within resilient development pathways. Therefore, qualitative tools such as collaborative mapping and co-design processes, pertaining to the urban planning and design fields, and quantitative tools such as surveys, from the social science field, were harmonized and combined to collect and analyze data on these site-specific topics. Considering people’s priorities and needs, the study was useful to define shared sustainable and resilient solutions in order to holistically integrate Disaster Risk Reduction/Climate Change Adaptation urban planning and design approaches and simultaneously deliver social, environmental, and economic co-benefits.

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Section: Test Site Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coping Capacity, Adaptive Capacity, and Transformative Capacity Preliminary Characterization in a “Multi-Hazard” Resilience Perspective: The Soccavo District Case Study (City of Naples, Italy)

et al. 2023

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“…In fact, the dense underflow is thought to be formed by segregation of particles and so it is essentially unknown how initial potential energy is partitioned between the dense and less dense components of the PDC: the effective height H is not likely to be related to overall column height. There would be a similar issue with the H variable in the energy cone formulation, which was not implemented in this 415 study (Bevilacqua et al, 2022;Aravena et al, 2022).…”

Section: Expert Judgement Approach and The Input Sampling Strategy 400mentioning

confidence: 99%

Comment on nhess-2022-100

2022

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Data analysis of the unsteadily accelerating GPS and seismic records at Campi Flegrei caldera from 2000 to 2020

Bevilacqua

Martino

Giudicepietro

et al. 2022

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Ongoing resurgence affects Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) via bradyseism, i.e. a series of ground deformation episodes accompanied by increases in shallow seismicity. In this study, we perform a mathematical analysis of the GPS and seismic data in the instrumental catalogs from 2000 to 2020, and a comparison of them to the preceding data from 1983 to 1999. We clearly identify and characterize two overlying trends, i.e. a decennial-like acceleration and cyclic oscillations with various periods. In particular, we show that all the signals have been accelerating since 2005, and 90–97% of their increase has occurred since 2011, 40–80% since 2018. Nevertheless, the seismic and ground deformation signals evolved differently—the seismic count increased faster than the GPS data since 2011, and even more so since 2015, growing faster than an exponential function The ground deformation has a linearized rate slope, i.e. acceleration, of 0.6 cm/yr2 and 0.3 cm/yr2 from 2000 to 2020, respectively for the vertical (RITE GPS) and the horizontal (ACAE GPS) components. In addition, all annual rates show alternating speed-ups and slow-downs, consistent between the signals. We find seven major rate maxima since 2000, one every 2.8–3.5 years, with secondary maxima at fractions of the intervals. A cycle with longer period of 6.5–9 years is also identified. Finally, we apply the probabilistic failure forecast method, a nonlinear regression that calculates the theoretical time limit of the signals going to infinity (interpreted here as a critical state potentially reached by the volcano), conditional on the continuation of the observed nonlinear accelerations. Since 2000, we perform a retrospective analysis of the temporal evolution of these forecasts which highlight the periods of more intense acceleration. The failure forecast method applied on the seismic count from 2001 to 2020 produces upper time limits of [0, 3, 11] years (corresponding to the 5th, 50th and 95th percentiles, respectively), significantly shorter than those based on the GPS data, e.g. [0, 6, 21] years. Such estimates, only valid under the model assumption of continuation of the ongoing decennial-like acceleration, warn to keep the guard up on the future evolution of Campi Flegrei caldera.

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Volcanic Hazard Assessment at the Campi Flegrei Caldera, Italy

Cited by 6 publications

References 186 publications

Coping Capacity, Adaptive Capacity, and Transformative Capacity Preliminary Characterization in a “Multi-Hazard” Resilience Perspective: The Soccavo District Case Study (City of Naples, Italy)

Coping Capacity, Adaptive Capacity, and Transformative Capacity Preliminary Characterization in a “Multi-Hazard” Resilience Perspective: The Soccavo District Case Study (City of Naples, Italy)

Comment on nhess-2022-100

Data analysis of the unsteadily accelerating GPS and seismic records at Campi Flegrei caldera from 2000 to 2020

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