Volcanic Eruptions: A Source of Irreducible Uncertainty for Future Climates

Abstract

Volcanic forcing, a major natural source of climate variability, represents a challenge for current climate modeling because of the unpredictability and specificity of individual eruptions, and because of the complexity of processes linking the eruption to the climate response. Volcanic forcing is largely underrepresented in available future climate projections, which is a critical problem. The study by Man Mei Chim and Colleagues (Chim et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103743) tackles this known unknown and reveals how climatically relevant volcanic activity may be stronger than currently thought in a future warmer climate, enhancing uncertainty of climate projections. The study exemplifies the profound implications of inaccuracies within simplified climate scenarios and motivates new research on volcanically forced climate variability. It also arouses some thoughts on climate uncertainty communication.

Climate change and economic growth: Evidence for European countries

“…Model uncertainty also results from the unpredictability of volcano eruptions and from the complexity of processes linking the eruption to the climate response (cf. Chim et al, 2023, andZanchettin, 2023). As regards the feedback effect of thawing permafrost soils Keuschnig et al (2022) obtain a similar result because they find that changes in soil properties, plant cover and microbial communities will reduce methane emissions in former permafrost soils.…”

Uncertainty of Climate Models and Policy Implications: A European Perspective

“…Another source of model uncertainty is given by the unpredictability of volcano eruptions and by the complexity of processes linking the eruption to the climate response (cf. Chim et al, 2023, andZanchettin, 2023).…”