Visualizing Chance: Tackling Conditional Probability Misconceptions

A New Visualization for Probabilistic Situations Containing Two Binary Events: The Frequency Net

“…Another strategy for improving Bayesian reasoning is using visualizations such as 2 × 2 tables (Steckelberg et al, 2004;Binder et al, 2015), tree diagrams (Sedlmeier and Gigerenzer, 2001;Yamagishi, 2003;Steckelberg et al, 2004;Binder et al, 2015;Budgett et al, 2016;Reani et al, 2018), double-trees (Wassner, 2004;Khan et al, 2015;Böcherer-Linder and Eichler, 2019), Euler diagrams (Sloman et al, 2003;Micallef et al, 2012;Sirota et al, 2014;Reani et al, 2018), roulette-wheel diagrams (Yamagishi, 2003;Brase, 2014), frequency grids (Cosmides and Tooby, 1996;Sedlmeier and Gigerenzer, 2001;Garcia-Retamero et al, 2015), Eikosograms (sometimes also called unit squares or mosaic plots; e.g., Oldford and Cherry, 2006;Böcherer-Linder and Eichler, 2017;Pfannkuch and Budgett, 2017;Talboy and Schneider, 2017), or icon arrays (Zikmund-Fisher et al, 2014;Brase, 2008Brase, , 2014Reani et al, 2018). Since the visualization of statistical information is as successful as the natural frequency strategy (McDowell and Jacobs, 2017), there have also been efforts in recent times to develop new visualizations with specific advantages, such as the dot diagram (which is a hybrid visualization of a 2 × 2 table, an Euler diagram, and an icon array; Wu et al, 2017) the turtleback diagram (Yan and Davis, 2018), or interactive diagrams like pachinkograms (Budgett and Pfannkuch, 2019;Starns et al, 2019). For an overview of typical visualizations for situations with two dichotomous character...…”

Formas de razonamiento probabilístico de estudiantes de sexto grado de educación secundaria

“…From this perspective, the importance of probability teaching lies in educating the probabilistic reasoning needed to cope with chance in everyday life and improve students' intuitions (Batanero, 2006), Ben-Zvi (2018) considers that probabilistic reasoning is becoming essential in society for tasks that involve dealing with uncertainty and making sense of data, Budgett and Pfannkuch (2019) state that " probabilistic reasoning is essential for operating sensibly and optimally in the XXI century" (p. 3). Sánchez and Valdez (2015) state that this type of reasoning refers, on the one hand, to arguments that have as premises and conclusions statements of probability, meaning that they involve mathematical concepts of probability; and on the other hand, to the processes of understanding and construction of such arguments, for Batanero et al (2016) "Probabilistic reasoning is a mode of reasoning that refers to judgments and decision making under uncertainty and is relevant to real life" (p. 9).…”