Visitor Capacity Considering Social Distancing in Urban Parks with Agent-Based Modeling

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has greatly influenced society in the past few years. Park accessibility and social distancing are considered important under the threat of a long-term epidemic. However, measures that can maintain park accessibility and diminish virus spreading synchronously have been seldom studied before, which may threaten public health in all major urban parks globally. This paper proposed a methodology based on an agent-based model to analyze capacities for parks by simulating park visitor behaviors when they all are social distancing. The model was derived from historical visitor data and realistic visitor behaviors in three park settings. Then, park capacities of varied contact conditions, different park policies, and layout adjustments were analyzed. First, congestions caused by social distancing without proper visitor control are found inside all parks. Second, 85 to 3972 square meters per person is predicted as a safe space in different parks. Third, the current results can be easily adjusted according to various concerns regarding infection distance and rate. Finally, it can be inferred that information provisions are more effective than space design adjustments and mandatory measures. The results can guide park managers and those who plan and design park settings. They are also helpful in improving knowledge of the mechanisms behind visitor behaviors. Moreover, these findings can be tested and verified in a variety of public spaces with many other contact-based illnesses.

Strategies and inequities in balancing recreation and COVID exposure when visiting green spaces

“…The hope, though, is that these are few enough relative to the full body of visits to have limited effect. Last, our calculation of exposure at a park is the most sophisticated we know of as it combines elements from multiple previous studies (Hong et al, 2021; Sun et al, 2020; Yue et al, 2021), but it does assume that exposure varies linearly with the size of a park. It might be that not all parts of a big park are actively used by visitors (e.g., large tracts of forest with paths; Yue et al, 2021).…”

“…In this way total exposure sums the estimated the number of individuals visiting the park who might be infected with COVID-19 (per the infection rate of their home neighborhood) for all visits from CBG h to all parks, divided by the area of the park as a proxy for the ability to socially distance. This follows the models of previous studies using place visitation data to estimate risk exposure (Hong et al, 2021; Sun et al, 2020; Yue et al, 2021). Average exposure per visit to park was then derived from this calculation by dividing by the total number of visits made by residents of h , or…”

Simulating crowding of urban green areas to manage access during lockdowns

“…The non-linearity of the relationship between distance threshold and the percentage of people with access to green areas suggests city-specific values that should be considered in order to maximise the benefits of future policies. Future health guidelines related to safe social distancing in open space can help to identify appropriate thresholds for these variables, which could be tested through simulations of visitor behaviour in parks, as done for example by Yue, Burley, Cui, Lei, & Zhou, 2021 using agent-based modelling.…”

Perspective Chapter: Organizational Ecology – Evolving Realities in Higher Education from Cholera to Covid – A Michigan State University Planning and Design Case Study

“…As it unfolded the outbreak changed most people's lives," recalls Dr. Burley. "By mid-March, MSU had initiated an on-line response with remote learning for most courses; and during January and February I had begun a research study modeling human behavior in recreation settings with a colleague in China, resulting in a publication," described Dr. Burley [37]. Online courses would continue for the next academic year.…”