Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Africa team

Present and prospective research themes for tourism and hospitality education post-COVID19: A bibliometric analysis

“… Research area Identified Cluster theme Study in the database % Economics impact and demand analysis Economic impact Pham &Ngo, 2021 ; McCartney & Liu, 2021 ; Ibn-Mohammed et al, 2021a , Ibn-Mohammed et al, 2021b ; Qiu et al, 2020 ; Cave & Dredge, 2020 . 28% Demand analysis and tourism development Crespí-Claderaet al, 2021 ; Kourentzes et al, 2021 ; Liu et al, 2021 ; Qiuet al, 2021 ; Fotiadis, Polyzos, & Huan, 2021 ; Guo, Liu, Song, & Y, 2021 ; Wickramasinghe & Ratnasiri, 2020 ; Gallego & Font, 2020 . 44% Others Kaczmarek, Perez, Demir, & Zaremba, 2021 ; Qiu et al, 2021 ; Wieczorek-Kosmala, 2021 ; Huang, Makridis, Baker, Medeiros, & Guo, 2020 ; Khan et al, 2021 0 28% Hospitality and tourism workforce/employee Organizational trust & resilience Guzzo et al, 2021 ; Ngoc et al, 2021 ; He et al, 2020 ; Salazar, 2020 ; Mao et al, 2020 28% Job performance & life satisfaction Tu et al, 2021 ; Aguiar-Quintana et al, 2021 ; Kim et al, 2021 ; Karatepe, Saydam, & O, 2021 ; Vo-Thanh et al, 2020 28% Turnover intentions ...…”

“…This theme includes studies that have forecasted the post-COVID tourist arrivals ( Kourentzes et al, 2021 ; Liu et al, 2021 ; Qiu et al, 2021 ) and the economic impact of COVID-19 on hospitality firm performance ( Crespí-Claderaet al, 2021 ). While Kourentzes et al (2021) , using the time series forecasting method, have estimated the international tourist arrivals for 20 destinations, Liu et al (2021) , using scenario-based two-steps mixed method including time series analysis, Artificial intelligence and judgmental forecasting, estimate tourist arrivals across 20 countries to suggest that strong relationship between the speed and intensity of recovery and destinations dependency on long-haul markets. Qiu et al, 2021 Qiu et al, 2021b , Qiu et al, 2021a , using statistical and judgemental forecasting methods, estimates tourist arrivals across 20 Asia Pacific countries.…”

“…Being an important industry in several countries, continuous economic assessment of tourism industry and its contribution to economic development and progress is essential ( Comerio & Strozzi, 2019 ). The pandemic and following lockdown and travel restrictions have economic impacts across all countries in the world particularly related to employment ( Phan et al, 2021 ), on hospitality firm performance ( Crespí-Claderaet al, 2021 ), on tourist arrivals and hence demand impacts ( Kourentzes et al, 2021 ; Liu et al, 2021 ; Qiu et al, 2021 ). While all these studies have indicated the impact and effect of the crisis, what needs to be further studied is the sector wise impact of tourism demand and employment on the short term, medium term and long-term economic growth and development of economies.…”

Forecasting hotel room demand amid COVID-19

“…Liu et al (2021) generated scenario forecasts of tourism industry recovery amid COVID-19 according to the percentage of deepest impact, the time when the deepest impact would occur, and the recovery rate via an integrated COVID-19 risk exposure index. Assuming that forecast quality would not degrade, Kourentzes et al (2021) formulated model-based scenarios to reduce mental load by considering the evolution of COVID-19, government restrictions, foreign affairs approaches, and border limitations. Fotiadis et al (2021) developed scenarios based on training data from previous major crises (e.g., the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, and Middle East respiratory syndrome) and compared the impacts of these events.…”

Tourism recovery amid COVID-19: The case of Lombardy, Italy

“…The available literature does offer some insights on the approaches to model crises, but no studies had ever dealt with crises of this magnitude. Nevertheless, tourism scholars have promptly addressed the issue and a few forecasting attempts have recently been published (e.g., Kourentzes et al, 2021;Liu et al, 2021;Qiu et al, 2020;Zhang et al, 2021). However, due to the uncertainty of the pandemic, the different governmental responses, and the difficulties in gathering adequate data, more evidence is needed to assess the value of the prediction models and the deriving current estimates.…”