Violence-induced migration and peer effects in academic performance

The Impact of Violence During the Mexican Revolution on Migration to the United States

“…Lifetime uncertainty-the perception of uncertainty of survival-influences decision making in fundamental aspects such as investing in education and health, or engaging in childbearing (Becker et al, 2020;Chiovelli et al, 2021;Barro and Friedman, 1977;Nettle, 2010;Padilla-Romo and Peluffo, 2023;Sasson, 2016). Recent literature shows that exposure to violence plays a major role in shaping lifetime uncertainty, as violence increases the risk of premature death and long-lasting health and psychological problems (Aburto et al, 2023).…”

Persistence of the Spillover Effects of Violence and Educational Trajectories

“…The Mexican war on drugs started in December 2006, during the second week of Calderón's government. This process was characterized by attacks against 2 Our paper is also related to the literature that examines the e↵ects of violence on academic achievement in Mexico (Caudillo and Torche, 2014;Jarillo et al, 2016;Brown and Velásquez, 2017;Orraca-Romano, 2018;Chang and Padilla-Romo, 2022;Michaelsen and Salardi, 2020;Padilla-Romo and Pelu↵o, 2023).…”

“…These costs include deleterious e↵ects on education (Brown and Velásquez, 2017;Koppensteiner and Menezes, 2021;Chang and Padilla-Romo, 2022), health (Koppensteiner and Manacorda, 2016;Brown, 2018;Lindo and Padilla-Romo, 2018;Martínez and Atuesta, 2018), and labor market outcomes (Montoya, 2016;Utar, 2018;Velásquez, 2019). Moreover, the detrimental e↵ects of local violence spill over into safe areas via migration and peer exposure to violence in elementary school (Padilla-Romo and Pelu↵o, 2023). Yet, it is unclear if the spillover e↵ects of local violence are short-lived or persist over time.…”

“…Our analysis takes place in the context of Mexico's war on drugs, which started at the end of 2006 and was characterized by a significant increase in local drug tra cking-related violence. Using the variation in homicide rates across Mexican municipalities and over time, Padilla-Romo and Pelu↵o (2023) show that local increases in violence act as shocks that induce individuals to move away from areas heavily exposed to violence into safer areas.…”

“…In this paper, we examine if exposure to peers who arrived from areas with high levels of violence and have been shown to be particularly disruptive in elementary school (low-achieving students from violent areas) has long-lasting consequences for incumbent students in safer areas. While Padilla-Romo and Pelu↵o (2023) study the short-term e↵ects of peer exposure to violence on a low-stakes diagnostic tests taken by students in elementary schools, this paper follows students who were exposed to potentially disruptive peers in elementary school over time using linked administrative data to examine the e↵ects on students' academic trajectories.…”