Views from nowhere, somewhere and everywhere else: The tragedy of the horizon in the early Anthropocene

Abstract

The ability to anticipate, plan for and adapt to the changes of the early Anthropocene is limited by human behaviour, political inertia, and short-termism. This ‘tragedy of the horizon’ is explored through three specific lenses on early Anthropocene futures. We begin with the dominant scientific evidence: mathematical and probabilistic modelling synthesised into increasingly rigorous and sophisticated scenarios for assessing policy options and broadening societal understanding. We then draw on the set of values, institutions, laws, and symbols through which people imagine their social whole in what Sheila Jasanoff describes as sociotechnical imaginaries. We also draw on institutional epistemologies as reflected in two global assessment initiatives: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which has been described as a ‘view from nowhere’, and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, a ‘view from everywhere’, though analysis has concluded that both organisations merely offer ‘views from somewhere’. We then present examples of other early Anthropocene imaginaries from writers, activists, and philosophers. The arc through these suggests both common themes and broad variation in underlying assumptions and world views. We argue that, especially in a post-truth world, a much richer form of (re)visioning the future is required in a project that must span far beyond the biophysical and include the full breadth of the social sciences and humanities. Without the inclusion of multiple underlying, competing, and creative long-term perspectives, society in general, and research in particular, may not adequately illuminate the complex possible future trajectories.

What does it mean that all is aflame? Non-axial Buddhist inspiration for an Anthropocene ontology

“…Porosity has to be cultivated in order to deal with two difficulties: the terrifying sight of the Earth’s condition (Analayo, 2019: 29) and the constant temptations of consumerism that presents easy and immediate satisfaction as a token of the good life. The Dark Mountain Project of former environmental activist Paul Kingsnorth would be an example of this (Anfinson, 2018; Frame and Cradock-Henry, 2022: 7–8; Kingsnorth, 2017: 213–15). Yet this resistance, this going against the stream of natural and ingrained cultural impulses, is not only a matter of abstention, of arousing a sense of dumbfoundedness in the face of the defiant Earth (Hamilton, 2017) or of the inconceivable complexities of our Earthly home (Kingsnorth, 2017).…”

Systems thinking for environmental policy in Aotearoa New Zealand

“…Hallsworth's manifesto (9) provides a rigorous yet accessible argument for applying behavioural science to address complex global challenges in the early Anthropocene (10,11). The analysis is highly detailed and discusses both successes and criticisms of, in the main, applying behavioural science.…”