Viewpoint – could the belt and road initiative be derailed? An analysis of impediments to completion

Abstract

Purpose The continuation of China’s belt and road initiative (BRI) is assumed in most analyses. Yet, recent events have created significant reputational damage for China and Chinese businesses. With a trade war evolving into a hegemonic struggle, there are a number of potential developments that could derail the BRI. This paper aims to provide a contemporary review of the factors that could negatively impact its continuation, and what China has done to mitigate the risks. Design/methodology/approach A descriptive paper that groups possible disruptive factors into three groups: internal weaknesses of the BRI and its design; those related to China’s implementation of the BRI and external concerns and pressures. Findings China has actively reviewed and refined the BRI to reduce its perceived weaknesses and increase its attractiveness to potential participants, focussing on debt dependency, transparency and governance. However, this has occurred at the same time as growing concerns regarding China’s international assertiveness, the hegemonic challenge and recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Research limitations/implications These changes are occurring within an extremely dynamic environment and any analysis at one point in time is subject to considerable limitations. However, the paper brings together a range of disparate perspectives in a structured manner. Originality/value The classification of possible threats to the BRI is original and provides insights into the relative significance of the diverse challenges that China faces. The paper concludes that while China’s operational focus on the mechanics of the BRI process is necessary, it may not be sufficient to ensure its continuing development. The paper identifies the next step which is conceptualisation of these ideas and of the BRI. Some guidance as to how this might be done is provided.

Impacts and Pathways of the Belt and Road Initiative on Sustainable Development Goals of the Involved Countries

“…The pandemic and the Ukraine‐Russia war are just some of the factors affecting the BRI. In the long run, changes in China's multilateral relations, the globalization process, internal management reforms in the BRI, and how US hegemony responds to the BRI will have far‐reaching consequences (Enderwick, 2021). Therefore, when discussing the future of the BRI, it is necessary to consider these factors.…”

Comrades or contenders: A corpus-based study of China's Belt and Road in US diplomatic discourse

“…For Afghanistan, China has some reservations because of the involvement of the USA. Enderwick (2020: 6) puts forth his stance over the concerns of the USA on the BRI which consider it as: a possible source of disruption to the continuation of the BRI existing within China's external environment, in effect, global responses to its planned expansion. China's growing economic power and presence have initiated several responses, most notably an ongoing trade war with the USA.…”

“…Enderwick (2020: 12) rightly remarks that “the BRI offers new outlets for Chinese industries such as steel, glass, and cement suffering over-capacity at home.” This study reveals all the probable facets of the US–China diplomatic rivalry and the response of the USA towards the BRI. While the Chinese authorities have made efforts to confront internal weaknesses of the BRI at almost all possible fronts, their behavior, particularly within the international arena, also influences overseas attitudes towards China and acceptance of the country's global expansion.…”

“…The 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review Report identified China as a potential military competitor (US Department of Defense, 2018: 29). What is more, as the BRI offers new outlets for Chinese industries such as steel, glass, and cement suffering over-capacity at home (Enderwick, 2020; Huan and Deng, 2021). Shah (2021) states that the USA is concerned over the strategic, diplomatic, and economic progress of China and its exponential growth in Asia, and is earnestly longing to retain US leadership in the Asia-Pacific.…”