Viability of temperate fruit tree varieties in Spain under climate change according to chilling accumulation

Rodríguez, Alfredo; Pérez-López, D.; Centeno, Ana; Ruiz‐Ramos, Margarita

doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2020.102961

Cited by 34 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Nonetheless, it is projected that under the most severe scenario (RCP8.5), the reduction in SWC should be much more intense. Furthermore, taking into account model uncertainties, some models predict a very strong reduction of CP, with a higher interannual variability, more pronounced after 2050, in agreement with other studies ( Rodriguez et al, 2021 ). It becomes clear that in the Mediterranean areas, which are indeed a climate change hot spot, there can be difficulties fulfilling apple chilling requirements under future climatic conditions ( Funes et al, 2016 ; Fernandez et al, 2020 ).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Chilling and Forcing for the Main Fresh Fruit Regions in Portugal

Fraga

Santos

2021

Front. Plant Sci.

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Air temperature plays a major role in the growth cycle of fruit trees. Chilling and forcing are two of the main mechanisms that drive temperate fruit development, namely dormancy and active plant development. Given the strong sensitivity of these crops to air temperature and the foreseeable warming under future climates, it becomes imperative to analyze climate change impacts for fruit trees. The fruit sector in Portugal has risen significantly over the last decades, gaining increasing importance both internally and through exports. The present research assesses the impacts of climate change on the chilling and forcing for economically relevant fruit trees in Portugal, namely apples, oranges, pears, and plums. To assess temperate fruit chilling and forcing conditions, the chilling portions (CP) and growing degree-hours (GDH) were computed over Portugal, for the recent-past (1989–2005) and future (2021–2080) periods, following two anthropogenic radiative forcing scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Future climate data were obtained from four regional-global climate model pairs to account for model uncertainties. Bias-correction methodologies were also applied. A spatial analysis over the main regions with PDO “Protected Denomination of Origin” or PDI “Protected Geographical Indication” of origin of each fruit tree was performed. Future projections show a clear decrease in chilling for all regions and fruit types in Portugal. Nonetheless, given the current chilling values in Portugal and the relative importance of chilling accumulation for each fruit type, these changes are more significant for certain varieties of apples than for other types of fruit. Regarding forcing, the future projections highlight an increase in its values throughout the different fruit tree regions in Portugal, which should lead to earlier phenological timings. These changes may bring limitations to some of the most important Portuguese temperate fruit regions. The planning of suitable adaptation measures against these threats is critical to control the risk of exposure to climate change, thus warranting the future sustainability of the Portuguese fruit sector, which is currently of foremost relevance to the national food security and economy.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Chilling and Forcing for the Main Fresh Fruit Regions in Portugal

Fraga

Santos

2021

Front. Plant Sci.

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“…Bioclimatic indices and plant phenology models assessing the suitability of temperate fruit species to adapt to climate changes were used to provide spatial and temporal information regarding the future changes in fruit quality [3]. In this regard, a model study revealed future climate changes and their effects on plant phenology of temperate deciduous trees in spring [17], including the role of climate changes in the re-distribution of cultivated temperate fruit crops, based on chilling accumulation [7]. It is also important to note that climate changes could lead to changes in the plant phenological processes (Figure 1) and susceptibility to different species of pests and diseases [10,34], which may negatively impact total crop yield and quality.…”

Section: Climate Change and Temperate Fruit Productivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is a natural phenomenon in deciduous fruit trees that dormancy occurs during the coldest period/season of the year, at which point growth is halted with modified cell physiology to avoid damage caused by cold temperature [7]. The decline in temperature and photoperiod during winter induces vital biological processes during dormancy that ultimately affect plant re-growth in spring [54].…”

Section: Understanding the Role Dormancymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, trees start dormancy as the temperature decreases in late fall and early winter and then begin re-growth as the temperature increases in spring after being vulnerable to particular chilling hours during winter [12,56]. Each temperate fruit cultivar has certain agroclimatic phenological process requirements for the spring to fall seasons [7]. Each cultivar has its own chilling and warmth requirements, as reported for many species such as pome fruits and nuts, and such information is considered in theplanting of a specific cultivar in a given growing area [55].…”

Section: Understanding the Role Dormancymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Temperate fruit trees originate from different locations characterized by four welldefined seasons (spring, summer, fall and winter) with a very cold winter and warm spring-summer seasons for the dormancy and growth periods, respectively [6]. Temperate fruit trees account for about 48% of global fruit production, and therefore generate essential revenue and food [7]. Temperate fruits are adapted to the temperate zone climate in midlatitudes [8]; however, about 50% of temperate fruit are cultivated in different climatic zones in China, Turkey, USA, Brazil, Italy, and Spain; these countries make up most of the world's total production [9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Temperate Fruit Trees under Climate Change: Challenges for Dormancy and Chilling Requirements in Warm Winter Regions

et al. 2021

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Adequate chill is of great importance for successful production of deciduous fruit trees. However, temperate fruit trees grown under tropical and subtropical regions may face insufficient winter chill, which has a crucial role in dormancy and productivity. The objective of this review is to discuss the challenges for dormancy and chilling requirements of temperate fruit trees, especially in warm winter regions, under climate change conditions. After defining climate change and dormancy, the effects of climate change on various parameters of temperate fruit trees are described. Then, dormancy breaking chemicals and organic compounds, as well as some aspects of the mechanism of dormancy breaking, are demonstrated. After this, the relationships between dormancy and chilling requirements are delineated and challenging aspects of chilling requirements in climate change conditions and in warm winter environments are demonstrated. Experts have sought to develop models for estimating chilling requirements and dormancy breaking in order to improve the adaption of temperate fruit trees under tropical and subtropical environments. Some of these models and their uses are described in the final section of this review. In conclusion, global warming has led to chill deficit during winter, which may become a limiting factor in the near future for the growth of temperate fruit trees in the tropics and subtropics. With the increasing rate of climate change, improvements in some managing tools (e.g., discovering new, more effective dormancy breaking organic compounds; breeding new, climate-smart cultivars in order to solve problems associated with dormancy and chilling requirements; and improving dormancy and chilling forecasting models) have the potential to solve the challenges of dormancy and chilling requirements for temperate fruit tree production in warm winter fruit tree growing regions.

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Non‐uniform changes of growing conditions for sweet cherry trees responses to climate warming in main production regions of China

Sun

Ren

Liu

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Given the strong sensitivity of sweet cherry trees to air temperature and the foreseeable warming under future climates, it becomes urgent to analyse spatiotemporal variability of growing conditions in main production areas of China. Here, we estimated changes of three climate metrics, that is, winter chill, heat accumulation and the risk of spring frost events, by using 22 global climate models over the historical and future (represented by central years 2050s and 2085s) time stages. Statistically downscaled daily maximum and minimum temperatures at 14 sites under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used. The results show a general increase of available winter chill for most sites in Bohai and Lanzhou-Lianyungang Railway line agro-climatic zones, and the increase in chill accumulation could reach up to 15.2% in these regions for RCP4.5 by 2085 s. However, the most dramatic winter chill decrease is projected to occur in the southwest region under the RCP8.5 scenario by 2085 s. Additionally, the increase rate of heat accumulation during the forcing period shows spatially consistency, and the most pronounced increase is found in the RCP8.5 by 2085 s. In the north region, median heat accumulation increases by 17.5%-21.0% in the 2050 s under RCP4.5. Similar increasing range could be found in the southwest station. High frost risk areas are found in the southwestern region for both baseline and future climate scenarios. Across the 14 study sites, Mengzi and Kunming have the highest meteorologically defined risk of spring damaging frost with accumulated 335 growing degree days (GDDs) and 264 GDDs before the last spring frost event, respectively. Overall, this study provides projected characteristics of site-specific growing conditions for sweet cherry trees in main production regions. The results could be useful for decision-making such as selection of appropriate species and varieties in adapting to future warming. K E Y W O R D S climate change, growing degree days, heat accumulation, spring frost risk, winter chill models

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Viability of temperate fruit tree varieties in Spain under climate change according to chilling accumulation

Cited by 34 publications

References 45 publications

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Chilling and Forcing for the Main Fresh Fruit Regions in Portugal

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Chilling and Forcing for the Main Fresh Fruit Regions in Portugal

Temperate Fruit Trees under Climate Change: Challenges for Dormancy and Chilling Requirements in Warm Winter Regions

Non‐uniform changes of growing conditions for sweet cherry trees responses to climate warming in main production regions of China

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