Viability of Agroecological Systems under Climatic Uncertainty

Abstract

To cope with ever-increasing demand and ensure food security, agronomic systems have shifted over time from traditional agriculture, based on the organic fertilization of soils, to intensive and specialized farming that use chemical fertilization. This resulted in increased soil productivity in the short term, but caused serious ecological drawbacks over time (degradation of soil quality, pollution of water and air, loss of biodiversity, erosion, etc.), and even reversed the trend of agricultural productivity. In this paper, we propose a viability theory–based model to study the sustainability of an agricultural system subject to climate uncertainty. Our objective is to determine what farming practices and activity sequences restore soil quality to a desired level while ensuring an acceptable level of productivity in the presence of the risk of major climatic disasters. The model is applied to Guadeloupe, an island in the West French Indies. We found that the results are highly sensitive to the direct effect of hurricanes on the soil’s quality, which, in turn, strongly affects the impact of the other parameters and that the export oriented sector is more vulnerable and less resilient to climatic uncertainties than the sector aimed at the local market.