Vertical transmission in epidemic models of sexually transmitted diseases with isolation from reproduction

Abstract

We describe a population logistic model exposed to a mild life-long sexually transmitted disease, that is, without significant increased mortality among infected individuals and providing no immunity/recovery. We then modify this model to include groups isolated from sexual contact and analyze their potential effect on the dynamics of the population. We are interested in how the isolated class may curb the growth of the infected group while keeping the healthy population at acceptable levels. In particular, we analyze the connection between vertical transmission and isolation from reproduction on the long term behavior of the disease. A comparison with similar effects caused by vaccination and quarantine is also provided. MSC2000: primary 92D30; secondary 92D25.

Analisis Stabilitas dan Simulasi Model Penyebaran Penyakit HIV/AIDS Tipe SIA (Susceptible, Infected, Abstained)

“…Infeksi baru HIV di seluruh dunia pada 2017 mencapai 1,8 juta orang [3]. Di Indonesia, sejak 2005 sampai dengan Maret 2019, jumlah kasus HIV yang dilaporkan mencapai 338.363 orang [4], sedangkan jumlah kondisi AIDS yang dilaporkan sejak pertama kali ditemukan pada 1987 sampai dengan Maret 2019 mencapai 115.601 orang [5]. Kasus AIDS dilaporkan telah menyebar di 33 provinsi di Indonesia sejak penghujung tahun 2009 [6].…”