Vertical Transmission in a Two-Strain Model of Dengue Fever

Murillo, David; Holechek, Susan A.; Murillo, Anarina L.; Sánchez, Fabio; Castillo‐Chavez, Carlos

doi:10.30707/lib1.2murillo

Cited by 15 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Previous dengue models focus on a more theoretical approach, including but limiting to, linear stability analysis, bifurcation analysis, next generation operators, etc, [12,21,19,22,23]. Additional studies that factor in climatological variables are [9,10,11].…”

Section: Mathematical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative analysis of dengue versus chikungunya outbreaks in Costa Rica

et al. 2018

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For decades, dengue virus has been a cause of major public health concern in Costa Rica, due to its landscape and climatic conditions that favor the circumstances in which the vector, Aedes aegypti, thrives. The emergence and introduction throughout tropical and subtropical countries of the chikungunya virus, as of 2014, challenged Costa Rican health authorities to provide a correct diagnosis since it is also transmitted by the same vector and infected hosts may share similar symptoms. We study the 2015-2016 dengue and chikungunya outbreaks in Costa Rica while establishing how point estimates of epidemic parameters for both diseases compare to one another. Longitudinal weekly incidence reports of these outbreaks signal likely misdiagnosis of infected individuals: underreporting of chikungunya cases, while overreporting cases of dengue. Our comparative analysis is formulated with a single-outbreak deterministic model that features an undiagnosed class. Additionally, we also used a genetic algorithm in the context of weighted least squares to calculate point estimates of key model parameters and initial conditions, while formally quantifying misdiagnosis.1991 Mathematics Subject Classification. 92B05 and 37N25 and 62P10.

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Section: Mathematical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative analysis of dengue versus chikungunya outbreaks in Costa Rica

et al. 2018

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“…Systematic reviews on mathematical and statistical models have been performed for the transmission dynamics of dengue [ 35 , 36 ]. Particularly, mathematical analyses of the role of vertical transmission were carried out in [ 22 , 37 , 38 ]. Their results confirmed the idea that vertical transmission can be an essential mechanism that favored the maintenance of the virus even with low human densities [ 37 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Vertical Transmission in the Control of Dengue Fever

Murillo

Lee

2019

IJERPH

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In this work, a two-strain dengue model with vertical transmission in the mosquito population is considered. Although vertical transmission is often ignored in models of dengue fever, we show that effective control of an outbreak of dengue can depend on whether or not the vertical transmission is a significant mode of disease transmission. We model the effect of a control strategy aimed at reducing human-mosquito transmissions in an optimal control framework. As the likelihood of vertical transmission increases, outbreaks become more difficult and expensive to control. However, even for low levels of vertical transmission, the additional, uncontrolled, transmission from infected mosquito to eggs may undercut the effectiveness of any control function. This is of particular importance in regions where existing control policies may be effective and the endemic strain does not exhibit vertical transmission. If a novel strain that does exhibit vertical transmission invades, then existing, formerly effective, control policies may no longer be sufficient. Therefore, public health officials should pay more attention to the role of vertical transmission for more effective interventions and policy.

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“…The model in [11] focuses on the early-life stage of the vector and explores the effect of multiple vector densities on dengue outbreaks. Previous work on dengue models mostly focus on the adult vector-host interactions; see, e.g., [5,3,4,12,8,9,1,10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dengue model with early-life stage of vectors and age-structure within host

Sánchez

Calvo

2019

RMTA

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We construct an epidemic model for the transmission of dengue fever with an early-life stage in the vector dynamics and age-structure within hosts. The early-life stage of the vector is modeled via a general function that supports multiple vector densities. The basic reproductive number and vector demographic threshold are computed to study the local and global stability of the infection-free state. A numerical framework is implemented and simulations are performed.

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Vertical Transmission in a Two-Strain Model of Dengue Fever

Cited by 15 publications

References 52 publications

Comparative analysis of dengue versus chikungunya outbreaks in Costa Rica

Comparative analysis of dengue versus chikungunya outbreaks in Costa Rica

The Role of Vertical Transmission in the Control of Dengue Fever

Dengue model with early-life stage of vectors and age-structure within host

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