Verification of and Compliance with Nuclear Non-Proliferation Obligations: A Comprehensive Synopsis of Outstanding Issues

Black-Branch, Jonathan L.; Fleck, Dieter

doi:10.1007/978-94-6265-075-6_1

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…Detection through direct measurement has played an important political role in other areas of international cooperation-from pollution of regional seas to regulation of fishing to protection of the ozone layer to proliferation of nuclear weapons [2][3][4]. Such verification can be critically important to the making and enforcing of global treaties.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric verification of emissions reductions on paths to deep decarbonization

Abdulla

Telschow

Dohner

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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A central challenge for sustaining international cooperation to cut global greenhouse gas emissions is confidence that national policy efforts are leading to a meaningful impact on the climate. Here, we apply a detection protocol to determine when the measurable signal of atmospheric CO2 can be distinguished from the noise of the carbon cycle and uncertainties in emission trends. We test that protocol with a database of 226 emission mitigation scenarios—the universe of scenarios vetted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. These scenarios are descriptive of ‘baseline’ trajectories of emissions trends in the absence of new policies along with trajectories that reflect substantial policy efforts to stop warming at 1.5 °C–2 °C above pre-industrial levels, as embodied in the Paris Agreement. The most aggressive mitigation scenarios (i.e. 1.5 °C) require 11–16 years to detect a signal of demonstrable progress from the noise; 2 °C scenarios lengthen detection by at least a decade. As more climate policy analysts face the reality that goals of 1.5 °C–2 °C seem infeasible, they have developed ‘overshoot’ scenarios with emissions that rise above the agreed goal and then, later on, fall aggressively to achieve it. These pathways come at the political cost of a 1–2 decade delay in detection, even for the 1.5 °C scenarios. The Paris Agreement requires a global ‘stocktake’ that interrogates national mitigation efforts; our results suggest that this effort must grapple with the question of when the world can gain confidence that the diplomacy on climate is demonstrably making an impact.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric verification of emissions reductions on paths to deep decarbonization

Abdulla

Telschow

Dohner

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…When a nation that possesses or is suspected of possessing nuclear weapons declares denuclearization, they report the details of the dismantlement of nuclear weapons, enrichment plants and reprocessing facilities. After reporting, nuclear verification is conducted as a part of Safeguards proposed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to verify the authenticity of the reported documents [1][2][3][4]. First, actual values that are measured and reported values are compared and analyzed for verification of declared facilities and nuclear materials.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of a CsI(Tl) scintillator based gamma probe for the identification of nuclear materials in unknown areas

Kim¹,

Lee²,

Jeong³

et al. 2022

J. Inst.

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In case of nuclear accident or an act of terrorism, such as planting a dirty bomb, the nuclear and radioactive materials could be spread over a large area. The environmental radioactivity information has to be obtained rather fast in order to secure the safety of any activity in these potentially high-level radiation contaminated areas. In addition, a lack of both social infrastructure and environmental radiation information may be expected in this area. Therefore, the sampling process must be carried out in a timely and efficient manner. In this study, a probe operated via a distribution method was developed to improve the efficiency of the sampling process by identifying the location and nuclides of leaked materials. For distribution type operation, CsI(Tl) and SiPM were applied to the sensor part of the probe to operate at low voltage operation and for durability. In addition, the power consumption of the data acquisition module and the weight of the probe were optimized for distribution through drones, battery operation, and wireless communication. The energy resolution of this probe was 10.84% at 662 keV and it showed adequate characteristics in the spectrum of nuclear materials. In addition, the practical operability of this probe was verified through determination of the minimum detectable dose rate condition and the difference in the measured values based on the landing orientation.

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“…The legal community, given the already vast literature on nuclear power and weapons regulation [119,[121][122][123][124][125]…”

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confidence: 99%

Analyzing the Nuclear Weapons Proliferation Risk Posed by a Mature Fusion Technology and Economy

2023

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Nuclear fusion is widely promoted as the ultimate environmentally friendly solution to the world’s energy demands. However, the medium/long-term nuclear weapons proliferation risks from a hypothetical fusion economy are rarely considered. Using risk assessment tools, this paper undertakes a trial scoping of proliferation hazards arising from fusion energy technologies, focused on the implications of a global ‘Mature Fusion Economy’ (MFE). In the medium term, an MFE could (1) facilitate construction of large, efficient, and reliable nuclear arsenals by producing tritium and the fissile materials Plutonium-239 and Uranium-233; and (2) erode the barriers constraining nuclear weapons acquisition by facilitating the spread of nuclear knowledge, technologies, and materials. Given the potential scale of a global MFE, management via monitoring of proliferation and diplomacy could become unworkable. Therefore, policy development must include independent and comprehensive expert and informed community assessment of such fusion-enhanced risks, transparent oversight by the nuclear disarmament community, and systematic analysis of the issues raised in this paper and their implications for fusion into the very long-term future.

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Verification of and Compliance with Nuclear Non-Proliferation Obligations: A Comprehensive Synopsis of Outstanding Issues

Cited by 3 publications

References 1 publication

Atmospheric verification of emissions reductions on paths to deep decarbonization

Atmospheric verification of emissions reductions on paths to deep decarbonization

Development of a CsI(Tl) scintillator based gamma probe for the identification of nuclear materials in unknown areas

Analyzing the Nuclear Weapons Proliferation Risk Posed by a Mature Fusion Technology and Economy

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