Verification by Multiple Methods of Precipitation Forecast from HDRFFGS and SisPI Tools during the Impact of the Tropical Storm Isaias over the Dominican Republic

Abstract

During 2020, the Dominican Republic received the impact of several tropical organisms. Among those that generated the greatest losses in the country, tropical storm Isaias stands out because of the significant precipitation (327.6 mm at Sabana del Mar during 29–31 July 2020) and flooding it caused. The study analyzes the behavior of the products of the Flash Flood Guidance System (FFGS) and the Nowcasting and Very Short Range Prediction System (Spanish acronym SisPI) for the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) of the precipitation generated by Isaias on 30 July 2020 over the Dominican Republic. Traditional categorical verification and featured-based spatial verification methods are used in the study, taking as observation the quantitative precipitation estimation of GPM. The results show that both numerical weather prediction systems are powerful tools for QPF and also to contribute to the prevention and mitigation of disasters caused by the extreme hydro-meteorological event analyzed. For the forecast of rain occurrence, the HIRESW-NMMB product of FFGS presented the highest ability with a CSI greater than 0.4. The HIRESW-ARW and SisPI products not only presented high rates of false alarms but also performed better in forecasting heavy rain values. The results of the verification based on objects with the MODE are consistent with those obtained in the verification by categories. The HIRESW-NMMB product underestimated the intense rainfall values by approximately 60 mm, while HIRESW-ARW and SisPI tools presented minor differences, the latter being the one with the greatest skill.

Navigating Flood Resilience: Challenges, Solutions, and Lessons Learnt from the Dominican Republic

“…(1) understanding the behavior of floodings and assess flood control options during Huracan seasons [27]; (2) formulating and improving affordable flood risk mitigation plans with structural and non-structural measures [28,29]; (3) developing comparative analysis between Caribbean countries storm impact and their disaster management strategic results [30]; (4) evaluation of tsunami scenarios [31]; (5) assessing of the spatiotemporal variations of climate projections [32]; (6) briefly describing the success and challenges in school safety and disaster risk education in the South America and the Caribbean [33]; (7) applying algorithms for forecasting precipitations [34][35][36]; and finally, (8) revaluating of the educational infrastructures against disasters and plans for relocation of vulnerable settlement into a free flood area (far a way of the river edges) [37]. While a few studies in relation to the Dominican Republic have sought to adequately frame and implement disaster mitigation strategies for extreme events, their focus on isolated occurrences overlook the potential for concurrent intensified phenomena.…”