Velocity Prediction on Time-Variant Landslides Using Moving Response Functions: Application to La Barmasse Rockslide (Valais, Switzerland)

Abellán, Antonio; Michoud, Clément; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Baillifard, F.; Demierre, Jonathan; Carrea, Dario; Derron, Marc‐Henri

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-09057-3_49

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Groundwater-level rise plays an important role in the (re)activation of deep-seated slope movements (Van Asch et al 1999;Iverson 2000;Rutqvist and Stephansson 2003). Many studies have attempted to characterize the relationships between water infiltration and landslide destabilization (Alfonsi 1997;Hong et al 2005;Helmstetter and Garambois 2010;Abellán et al 2015;Belle et al 2014;Bernardie et al 2014) or to couple hydromechanical models (Cappa et al 2004(Cappa et al , 2006Corominas et al 2005;Guglielmi et al 2005;Bonzanigo et al 2007;Sun et al 2009). However, to be accurate and to reflect field conditions, such approaches must be based on relevant and realistic groundwater conceptual models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contribution of time-related environmental tracing combined with tracer tests for characterization of a groundwater conceptual model: a case study at the Séchilienne landslide, western Alps (France)

et al. 2015

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Groundwater-level rise plays an important role in the activation or reactivation of deep-seated landslides and so hydromechanical studies require a good knowledge of groundwater flows. Anisotropic and heterogeneous media combined with landslide deformation make classical hydrogeological investigations difficult. Hydrogeological investigations have recently focused on indirect hydrochemistry methods. This study aims at determining the groundwater conceptual model of the Séchilienne landslide and its hosting massif in the western Alps (France). The hydrogeological investigation is streamlined by combining three approaches: a one-time multitracer test survey during high-flow periods, a seasonal monitoring of the water stable-isotope content and electrical conductivity, and a hydrochemical survey during low-flow periods. The complexity of the hydrogeological setting of the Séchilienne massif leads to development of an original method to estimate the elevations of the spring recharge areas, based on topographical analyses and water stableisotope contents of springs and precipitation. This study shows that the massif supporting the Séchilienne landslide is characterized by a dual-permeability behaviour typical of fractured-rock aquifers where conductive fractures play a major role in the drainage. There is a permeability contrast between the unstable zone and the intact rock mass supporting the landslide. This contrast leads to the definition of a shallow perched aquifer in the unstable zone and a deep aquifer in the intact massif hosting the landslide. The perched aquifer in the landslide is temporary, mainly discontinuous, and its extent and connectivity fluctuate according to the seasonal recharge.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contribution of time-related environmental tracing combined with tracer tests for characterization of a groundwater conceptual model: a case study at the Séchilienne landslide, western Alps (France)

et al. 2015

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“…Laws exist for a rigid-perfectly plastic slope behaviour (Iverson 2000) as well as for a viscous behaviour (Vulliet and Hutter 1988;Bracegirdle et al 1991;Butterfield 2000;Leroueil 2000). Physical models can also make use of numerical codes that couple groundwater recharge models to slope stability models in order to deterministically forecast displacement rates (Corominas et al 2005;Herrera et al 2009;Belle et al 2014;Bernardie et al 2014;Abellán et al 2015;Bernardie et al 2015;Schädler et al 2015). Nonlinear models are based upon computational approaches that aim to represent the posterior distribution of displacement using functions based on training data and prior distribution.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Use of ROC curves for early warning of landslide displacement rates in response to precipitation (Piagneto landslide, Northern Apennines, Italy)

Corsini

Mulas

2016

Landslides

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Active landslides are generally characterized by variations\ud in displacement rate in response to cumulated precipitation.\ud Velocities that are only exceeded in a limited number of days\ud during the year might be considered as critical events, since they\ud might determine, or prelude to, a significant evolution of the\ud landslide. The purpose of this paper is to present a novel approach\ud based on the use of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves\ud for assessing cumulated precipitation thresholds that can provide\ud early warning for the occurrence of critical events such as the\ud exceedance of rare displacement rates. The approach has been\ud developed and tested in the Piagneto landslide, an active complex\ud rock slide—debris slide in the Northern Apennines of Italy, for\ud which a 5-year continuous surveying monitoring dataset is available.\ud On the basis of the first 4 years of monitoring data (training\ud dataset), threshold curves relating cumulative precipitation (mm)\ud to precipitation moving windows (days) have been generated by\ud using different benchmarks that, in literature, are used to estimate\ud the maximum predictive performance of ROC curves. These\ud threshold curves have been successfully validated using the last\ud 1 year of monitoring data (validation dataset). They have then\ud been used to simulate how they might help defining different early\ud warning levels in due advance. The proposed methodology can be\ud replicated in any landslide for which a monitoring dataset that\ud includes recurrent acceleration events in response to precipitation\ud is available

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“…If the change is significant, then identifying when it occurs and quantifying its significance can be important breakthroughs toward the identification of the triggering processes and the onset of possible early warning strategies. Incidentally, analysing the dynamics of landslide is a pre-requisite in the most sophisticated applications of the statistical impulse response model for the prediction of landslide velocities (Abellán et al 2015;Bernardie et al 2015). The analysis of the time evolution and/or the cross-correlation of measurements collected on landslides is part of the ordinary course of research on solid flow hazards (Hungr et al 2005;Crosta et al 2014;Rianna et al 2014;Benoit et al 2015;Schlögel et al 2015;Confuorto et al 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Change-point analysis of geophysical time-series: application to landslide displacement rate (Séchilienne rock avalanche, France)

Amorèse

Grasso

Garambois

et al. 2018

Geophysical Journal International

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The rank-sum multiple change-point method is a robust statistical procedure designed to search for the optimal number and the location of change points in an arbitrary continue or discrete sequence of values. As such, this procedure can be used to analyse time-series data. Twelve years of robust data sets for the Séchilienne (French Alps) rockslide show a continuous increase in average displacement rate from 50 to 280 mm per month, in the 2004-2014 period, followed by a strong decrease back to 50 mm per month in the 2014-2015 period. When possible kinematic phases are tentatively suggested in previous studies, its solely rely on the basis of empirical threshold values. In this paper, we analyse how the use of a statistical algorithm for change-point detection helps to better understand time phases in landslide kinematics. First, we test the efficiency of the statistical algorithm on geophysical benchmark data, these data sets (stream flows and Northern Hemisphere temperatures) being already analysed by independent statistical tools. Second, we apply the method to 12-yr daily time-series of the Séchilienne landslide, for rainfall and displacement data, from 2003 December to 2015 December, in order to quantitatively extract changes in landslide kinematics. We find two strong significant discontinuities in the weekly cumulated rainfall values: an average rainfall rate increase is resolved in 2012 April and a decrease in 2014 August. Four robust changes are highlighted in the displacement time-series (

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Velocity Prediction on Time-Variant Landslides Using Moving Response Functions: Application to La Barmasse Rockslide (Valais, Switzerland)

Cited by 4 publications

References 8 publications

Contribution of time-related environmental tracing combined with tracer tests for characterization of a groundwater conceptual model: a case study at the Séchilienne landslide, western Alps (France)

Contribution of time-related environmental tracing combined with tracer tests for characterization of a groundwater conceptual model: a case study at the Séchilienne landslide, western Alps (France)

Use of ROC curves for early warning of landslide displacement rates in response to precipitation (Piagneto landslide, Northern Apennines, Italy)

Change-point analysis of geophysical time-series: application to landslide displacement rate (Séchilienne rock avalanche, France)

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