Vector-valued probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of correlated ground motion parameters

Bazzurro, Paolo; Park, J

doi:10.1201/b11332-237

Cited by 72 publications

(139 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…VPSHA has yet to become a standard procedure in risk evaluations but thanks to recent developments of the method (e.g. Bazzurro et al, 2010) this approach is likely to become more widespread. 5 s), and the dotted lines are the 95% confidence intervals.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The effect of geometrical variability on the vulnerability of a given typology must be taken into account by introducing a population of different buildings belonging to the same typology. To make use of the vector-valued fragility function like those proposed here within risk evaluations, it would be necessary to conduct a VPSHA (Bazzurro and Cornell, 2002) so that the joint probability of surpassing thresholds for two (or more) IMs was correctly estimated. VPSHA has yet to become a standard procedure in risk evaluations but thanks to recent developments of the method (e.g.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, a fragility function with respect to SA at different periods is derived here. These IMs are more convenient for joint estimation and they are well adapted to vector-valued probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (VPSHA) proposed by Bazzurro and Cornell (2002). The SA at the first eigenperiod (0.15 s) and a second one at a longer period are chosen, based on the results from the ROC analysis (see Table 5).…”

Section: Case Of Correlated Imsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Vector-valued fragility functions for seismic risk evaluation

Gehl

Seyedi

Douglas

2012

Bull Earthquake Eng

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This article presents a method for the development of vector-valued fragility functions, which are a function of more than one intensity measure (IM, also known as ground-motion parameters) for use within seismic risk evaluation of buildings. As an example, a simple unreinforced masonry structure is modelled using state-of-the-art software and hundreds of nonlinear time-history analyses are conducted to compute the response of this structure to earthquake loading. Dozens of different IMs (e.g. peak ground acceleration and velocity, response spectral accelerations at various periods, Arias intensity and various duration and number of cycle measures) are considered to characterize the earthquake shaking. It is demonstrated through various statistical techniques (including Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis) that the use of more than one IM leads to a better prediction of the damage state of the building than just a single IM, which is the current practice. In addition, it is shown that the assumption of the lognormal distribution for the derivation of fragility functions leads to more robust functions than logistic, log-logistic or kernel regression. Finally, actual fragility surfaces using two pairs of IMs (one pair are uncorrelated while the other are correlated) are derived and compared to scalar-based fragility curves using only a single IM and a significant reduction in the uncertainty of the predicted damage level is observed. This type of fragility surface would be a key component of future risk evaluations that take account of recent developments in seismic hazard assessment, such as vector-valued probabilistic seismic hazard assessments.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Case Of Correlated Imsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Vector-valued fragility functions for seismic risk evaluation

Gehl

Seyedi

Douglas

2012

Bull Earthquake Eng

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“…e estimation of (1) can be potentially improved by increasing the number of parameters in the IM. In this way, a more complete description of the properties of ground motions can be obtained [24,25]. For example, if an EDP is potentially dependent on two ground motion parameters, IM 1 and IM 2 , then the annual rate of exceeding a specified EDP value of edp can be computed using the following modified version of the total probability theorem of (1) …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating Efficiency of Vector-Valued Intensity Measures in Seismic Demand Assessment of Concrete Dams

Alembagheri

2018

Advances in Civil Engineering

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e efficiency of vector-valued intensity measures for predicting the seismic demand in gravity dams is investigated. e Folsom gravity dam-reservoir coupled system is selected and numerically analyzed under a set of two-hundred actual ground motions. First, the well-defined scalar IMs are separately investigated, and then they are coupled to form two-parameter vector IMs. After that, IMs consisting of spectral acceleration at the first-mode natural period of the dam-reservoir system along with a measure of the spectral shape (the ratio of spectral acceleration at a second period to the first-mode spectral acceleration value) are considered. It is attempted to determine the optimal second period by categorizing the spectral acceleration at the first-mode period of vibration. e efficiency of the proposed vector IMs is compared with scalar ones considering various structural responses as EDPs. Finally, the probabilistic seismic behavior of the dam is investigated by calculating its fragility curves employing scalar and vector IMs considering the effect of zero response values.

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“…Moreover, spatially distributed multiple facilities suffer from damage simultaneously. These characteristics should be taken into consideration when conducting seismic risk assessment (Bazzurro and Cornell, 2002;Wang et al, 2009). Ground motion modeling, which can be applied to such seismic probabilistic risk assessment, has also been developed (Wang and Takada, 2005;Baker and Jayaram, 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Framework for Seismic Design of Items in Safety-Critical Facilities for Implementing a Risk-Informed Defense-in-Depth-Based Concept

Itoi

Iita

Sekimura

2017

Front. Built Environ.

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Recently, especially after the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake and the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, the need for treating residual risks and cliff-edge effects in safety-critical facilities has been widely recognized as an extremely important issue. In this article, the sophistication of seismic designs in safety-critical facilities is discussed from the viewpoint of mitigating the consequences of accidents, such as the avoidance of cliff-edge effects. For this purpose, the implementation of a risk-informed defense-in-depth-based framework is proposed in this study. A basic framework that utilizes diversity in the dynamic characteristics of items and also provides additional seismic margin to items important for safety when needed is proposed to prevent common cause failure and to avoid cliff-edge effects as far as practicable. The proposed method is demonstrated to be effective using an example calculation.

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Vector-valued probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of correlated ground motion parameters

Cited by 72 publications

References 2 publications

Vector-valued fragility functions for seismic risk evaluation

Vector-valued fragility functions for seismic risk evaluation

Investigating Efficiency of Vector-Valued Intensity Measures in Seismic Demand Assessment of Concrete Dams

A Framework for Seismic Design of Items in Safety-Critical Facilities for Implementing a Risk-Informed Defense-in-Depth-Based Concept

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