Varying genesis and landfall locations for North Atlantic tropical cyclones in a warmer climate

Weaver, Mackenzie M; Garner, Andra J.

doi:10.1038/s41598-023-31545-4

Cited by 8 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…Recent research has projected an intensifying trend in tropical cyclones in future climates near the U.S. Atlantic coast, particularly for more extreme storms (Balaguru et al., 2022; Walsh et al., 2016; Wehner et al., 2018). More recently, Weaver and Garner (2023) indicated a positive trend in hurricane genesis points moving northward, thereby leading to more landfalls in the mid‐Atlantic region. Additionally, uncertainties related to future climate projections introduce further complexities into flood predictions, a challenge that has yet to be addressed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Amplified Extreme Floods and Shifting Flood Mechanisms in the Delaware River Basin in Future Climates

Sun,

Wigmosta,

Yan

et al. 2024

Earth's Future

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Historical records in the Delaware River Basin reveal complex and spatially diverse flood generating mechanisms influenced by the region's mountains‐to‐plains gradients. This study focuses on predicting future flood hazards and understanding the underlying drivers of changes across the region. Using a process‐based hydrological model, we analyzed the hydrometeorological condition of each historical and future flood event. For each event, at the subbasin scale, we identified the dominant flood generating mechanism, including snowmelt, rain‐on‐snow, short‐duration rain, and long‐duration rain. The rain‐induced floods are further categorized based on the soil's Antecedent Moisture Condition (AMC) before the event, whether dry, normal, or wet. Our historical analysis suggests that rain‐on‐snow is the primary flood mechanism of the Upper Basin. Although most frequent, the magnitude of rain‐on‐snow floods is often less severe than short rain floods. In contrast, historical floods in the Lower Basin are primarily caused by short rain under normal AMC. Given the uncertainties in climate projections, we used an ensemble of future climate scenarios for flood projections. Despite variations in regional climate projections, coherent perspectives emerge: the region will shift toward a warmer, wetter climate, with a projected intensification of extreme floods. The Upper Basin is projected to experience a marked decrease in rain‐on‐snow floods, but a substantial increase in short rain floods with wet AMC. The largest increase in flood magnitude will be driven by short rains with wet AMC in the Upper Basin and by short rains with normal AMC in the Lower Basin.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Amplified Extreme Floods and Shifting Flood Mechanisms in the Delaware River Basin in Future Climates

Sun,

Wigmosta,

Yan

et al. 2024

Earth's Future

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Several conditions are at the basis of TC formation. As described in (W. M. Gray, 1975; Weaver & Garner, 2023), “TC genesis requires warm sea surface temperatures, low wind shear, ample humidity, adequate influence from the Coriolis force, and a pre‐existing low‐pressure disturbance in the atmosphere.” Besides the aforementioned conditions, the cyclone center (i.e., the eye) is typically located in a low‐pressure region surrounded by strong winds and deep cumulonimbus. As the TC travels, it becomes a self‐sufficient system that continuously gathers energy from the ocean.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Ensemble Machine Learning Approach for Tropical Cyclone Localization and Tracking From ERA5 Reanalysis Data

Accarino,

Donno,

Immorlano

et al. 2023

Earth and Space Science

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Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are counted among the most destructive phenomena that can be found in nature. Every year, globally an average of 90 TCs occur over tropical waters, and global warming is making them stronger and more destructive. The accurate localization and tracking of such phenomena have become a relevant and interesting area of research in weather and climate science. Traditionally, TCs have been identified in large climate data sets through the use of deterministic tracking schemes that rely on subjective thresholds. This study presents a Machine Learning (ML) ensemble approach for locating TCs center coordinates. The ensemble combines TCs center estimates of different ML models that agree about the presence of a TC in input data. ERA5 reanalysis data was used for model training and testing jointly with the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) records. Compared to single models estimates, the ML ensemble approach was able to improve TCs localization in terms of Euclidean Distance with respect to the observed TCs locations from IBTrACS. Moreover, a hybrid tracking scheme was defined: starting from the individual TC center locations detected by the ML ensemble approach, a deterministic tracking algorithm was used for reconstructing TC trajectories. The hybrid tracking scheme was then compared with four deterministic trackers reported in literature, achieving a Probability of Detection and a False Alarm Rate of 71.49% and 23%, respectively, over 40 years of reanalysis data.

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“…These projected trends in hurricane characteristics can amplify the risk faced by coastal cities and estuaries to storm surges and coastal flooding in the future climate. More recently, using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 5 (CMIP5) global climate model datasets, Weaver and Garner (2023) examined the hurricane landfall patterns in the U.S. East Coast for a warmer climate. They showed a positive trend in hurricane genesis points moving northward and making more landfalls along the mid-Atlantic region as they traveled through the U.S. Northeast (similar to Hurricane Irene 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estuarine hurricane wind can intensify surge-dominated extreme water level in shallow and converging coastal systems

Deb,

Benedict,

Sun

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Abstract. Based on the projected increase in hurricane landfall frequency on the middle to lower U.S. East Coast, we examined the crucial role of the estuarine wind field in exacerbating coastal flooding. A regionally refined atmospheric and two high-resolution hydrology and ocean models are integrated to provide plausible and physically-consistent ensembles of hurricane events and the associated flooding inside the Delaware Bay and River, a U.S. mid-Atlantic estuary. Model results show that the hurricane propagation direction, estuarine geometry, remote surge from the open ocean, and direct nearshore upwind stress could magnify the flood magnitude. More specifically, inland-bound tracks that make landfall before reaching the mid-Atlantic coast produce a more significant surge within Delaware Bay than the shore-parallel tracks, where the estuarine wind direction plays the primary role in surge amplification. Ultimately, this study emphasized the need for integrated models to capture the nonlinear dynamics and interactions in flood hazard modeling.

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Varying genesis and landfall locations for North Atlantic tropical cyclones in a warmer climate

Cited by 8 publications

References 55 publications

Amplified Extreme Floods and Shifting Flood Mechanisms in the Delaware River Basin in Future Climates

Amplified Extreme Floods and Shifting Flood Mechanisms in the Delaware River Basin in Future Climates

An Ensemble Machine Learning Approach for Tropical Cyclone Localization and Tracking From ERA5 Reanalysis Data

Estuarine hurricane wind can intensify surge-dominated extreme water level in shallow and converging coastal systems

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