Varied projected changes in near-future climatically suitable areas for bats in South Asia

Abstract

Aim We assessed the projected changes in climatically suitable areas for South Asian bats from current conditions (1970-2000) to the near future (2041-2060) in response to climate change scenarios, identifying hotspots of climatic suitability, and measuring the direction and zero-cost distance between climatically suitable areas in the present and the near future. Location South Asia Time period Present day and near future (2050) Major taxa studied South Asian bats Methods We used ensemble ecological niche modelling for 110 selected South Asian bat species with four algorithms (random forests, artificial neural networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines, and maximum entropy) to define climatically suitable areas under current conditions (1970–2000). We then predicted future (2041–2060) climatically suitable areas under four projected scenarios (combining two global climate models and two shared socioeconomic pathways, SSP2: middle-of-the-road and SSP5: fossil-fuelled development). Results Predicted future changes in climatic suitable areas varied across species but the majority were predicted to retain most of the current area or have small losses. When shifts occurred due to projected climate change, new areas were generally at higher latitudes (northward shift). Climatically suitable hotspots (suitable for >30% of species) were generally predicted to become smaller and more fragmented. Main conclusions Overall, climate change in the near future may not lead to dramatic shifts in the distribution of bat species in South Asia, but local hotspots of biodiversity may be lost. Our results offer insight into climate change effects in less studied areas and can inform conservation planning, motivating reappraisals of conservation priorities and strategies for bats in South Asia.