Variations of the spring precipitation day numbers reconstructed from tree rings in the Urumqi River drainage, Tianshan Mts. over the last 370 years

Yuan, Yanbin; Jin, Liya; Shao, Xuemei; He, Qing; Li, Zhizhong; Li, Jiangfeng

doi:10.1360/02wd0251

Cited by 71 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…The longest extended dry period (1911)(1912)(1913)(1914)(1915)(1916)(1917)(1918)(1919)(1920)(1921)(1922)(1923)(1924) corresponds to drought records for Mongolia, derived from tree-ring data (Pederson et al 2001;Davi et al 2006) and from historical documents (Mijiddorj andNamhay 1993 (in Pederson et al 2001)). Various other drought periods in our reconstruction (Table 6) also appear in tree-ring reconstructions for the Urumqi River drainage in the Tien Shan Mountains (1710s; Yuan et al 2003) and in Mongolia (1771Mongolia ( -1775Mongolia ( and 1977Mongolia ( -1981Pederson et al 2001). The two extended drought periods in the 1800s (approx.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 52%

“…Sustained wet and dry periods of the Manasi River lasted up to 14 years according to our reconstruction. The most extensive wet periods in our study correspond to periods of maximum spring precipitation days in the middle Tien Shan Mountains (1940s; Yuan et al 2003) and with a period of extended increased streamflow of the Selenge River in westcentral Mongolia (1780s; Davi et al 2006). The longest extended dry period (1911)(1912)(1913)(1914)(1915)(1916)(1917)(1918)(1919)(1920)(1921)(1922)(1923)(1924) corresponds to drought records for Mongolia, derived from tree-ring data (Pederson et al 2001;Davi et al 2006) and from historical documents (Mijiddorj andNamhay 1993 (in Pederson et al 2001)).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 85%

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The Potential to Reconstruct Manasi River Streamflow in the Northern Tien Shan Mountains (NW China)

Yuan

Shao

Wang³

et al. 2007

Tree-Ring Research

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We present a tree-ring based reconstruction of water-year (October-September) streamflow for the Manasi River in the northern Tien Shan mountains in northwestern China. We developed eight Tien Shan spruce (Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey.) chronologies for this purpose, which showed a common climatic signal. The hydroclimatic forcing driving tree growth variability affected streamflow with a three-to four-year lag. The model used to estimate streamflow is based on the average of three chronologies and reflects the autoregressive structure of the streamflow time series. The model explains 51% of variance in the instrumental data and allowed us to reconstruct streamflow for the period 1629-2000. This preliminary reconstruction could serve as a basis for providing a longer context for evaluating the recent (1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000) increasing trends in Manasi River streamflow and enables the detection of sustained periods of drought and flood, which are particularly challenging for managing water systems. Several of the reconstructed extended dry (wet) periods of the Manasi River correspond to reconstructed periods of drought (flood) in Central Asia in general and in other Tien Shan mountain locations in particular, suggesting that the analysis of Tien Shan spruce could contribute significantly to the development of regionally explicit streamflow reconstructions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 52%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 85%

The Potential to Reconstruct Manasi River Streamflow in the Northern Tien Shan Mountains (NW China)

Yuan

Shao

Wang³

et al. 2007

Tree-Ring Research

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“…Previous proxy-based precipitation reconstructions for Asia have only been attempted for specific subregions (e.g., Yuan et al 2003;Q.-B. Zhang et al 2003;Fang et al 2010Fang et al , 2011Yi et al 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Gridded Reconstruction of Warm Season Precipitation for Asia Spanning the Past Half Millennium

Feng¹,

Hu²,

Wu³

et al. 2013

Journal of Climate

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The authors reconstructed May-September precipitation over the Asian continent (58-558N, 608-1358E) back to AD 1470 on the basis of tree-ring data, historical documentary records, ice core records, and the few long-term instrumental data series available in the region. They employed the method of Regularized Expectation Maximization (RegEM) and applied it to 44 subregions within the continent. Verification exercises demonstrate that the reconstruction is skillful over most of the study domain, with eastern China, India, and other regions of humid climate displaying the greatest skill. Lower reconstruction skill is observed in semiarid and arid regions, which was attributable at least in part to the scarcity of observations available for calibration/ validation. The precipitation reconstructions agree well with previous reconstructions, where they are available. The explanatory value of the reconstruction is illustrated using five historically documented severe droughts in north-central China during the past half millennium. The reconstructions both validate and provide a larger-scale context for understanding these past climate events and their relationship with the Asian summer monsoons.

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“…Instrumental measurement is sparse and short-term in southwestern China, but climatic conditions can be extended back several centuries with high-resolution climatic proxies. Tree-ring records are widely used as climatic proxies, because they provide annual resolution, precise dating and adequate duplicate data and have been proven to be an efficient proxy for past climate reconstruction [1][2][3][4][5].…”

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confidence: 99%

A 457-year reconstruction of precipitation in the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China using tree-ring records

et al. 2013

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This paper presents a 457-year reconstruction of precipitation in the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau using tree-ring records. Tree-ring samples were collected from the Hengduan Mountains in the southeastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China. A nearly 500-year chronology was developed using tree-ring width records. Correlation analysis shows moisture is the main factor limiting tree growth in this region. Ring-widths were significantly positively correlated with the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and precipitation in many months. The highest correlation coefficient was found between the annual growth of trees and precipitation from the previous September to the current June (0.738). Based on this relationship, we reconstructed the precipitation history from 1509 to 2006. The reconstruction explains 54.4% (R 2 adj =53.5%, N=49, F=56.12) of the actual precipitation variation during the calibration period . During the reliable period of the reconstruction (1549-2006), some low-frequency climate signals are included, indicating this region has been getting wetter in the last 20 years. The reconstruction documents six apparently dry and five pluvial periods and the 17th century dry period lasted longer than any other. When compared with other recent studies, this study and these earlier reconstructions show a similar trend in the variation of drought and pluvial. Further spatial correlation analysis confirms that the reconstructed precipitation adequately represents the rainfall history of the entire Hengduan Mountain area. The Multi-taper method, a type of spectral analysis, reveals that precipitation in this area had significant (P<0.01) spectral peaks at 3-5 a, 60 a and 79-85 a.Abies Mill., Hengduan Mountains, precipitation reconstruction, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, tree-ring width Citation:Gou X H, Yang T, Gao L L, et al. A 457-year reconstruction of precipitation in the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China using tree-ring records.

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Variations of the spring precipitation day numbers reconstructed from tree rings in the Urumqi River drainage, Tianshan Mts. over the last 370 years

Cited by 71 publications

References 3 publications

The Potential to Reconstruct Manasi River Streamflow in the Northern Tien Shan Mountains (NW China)

The Potential to Reconstruct Manasi River Streamflow in the Northern Tien Shan Mountains (NW China)

A Gridded Reconstruction of Warm Season Precipitation for Asia Spanning the Past Half Millennium

A 457-year reconstruction of precipitation in the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China using tree-ring records

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