Variations in the mean, seasonal and extreme water level on the Latvian coast, the eastern Baltic Sea, during 1961–2018

Männikus, Rain; Soomere, Tarmo; Viška, Maija

doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2020.106827

Cited by 20 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Most of this sea level rise in the Baltic Sea was caused by a corresponding increase of sea level in the North Atlantic Ocean. Model results along with data from Latvian waters (Männikus et al, 2020) further suggest a heterogeneous pattern of sea level rise, with larger rates in the northern and smaller rates in the southeastern Baltic Sea that appears to be the result of a poleward shift of atmospheric pressure systems (Gräwe et al, 2019).…”

Section: Variability Change and Acceleration Of Baltic Sea Mean Seamentioning

confidence: 86%

Sea Level Dynamics and Coastal Erosion in the Baltic Sea Region

Weisse¹,

Dailidienė²,

Hünicke³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. There are a large number of geophysical processes affecting sea level dynamics and coastal erosion in the Baltic Sea region. These processes operate on a large range of spatial and temporal scales and are observed in many other coastal regions worldwide. Together with the outstanding number of long data records, this makes the Baltic Sea a unique laboratory for advancing our knowledge on interactions between processes steering sea level and erosion in a climate change context. Processes contributing to sea level dynamics and coastal erosion in the Baltic Sea include the still ongoing visco-elastic response of the Earth to the last deglaciation, contributions from global and North Atlantic mean sea level changes, or from wind waves affecting erosion and sediment transport along the subsiding southern Baltic Sea coast. Other examples are storm surges, seiches, or meteotsunamis contributing primarily to sea level extremes. All such processes have undergone considerable variations and changes in the past. For example, over the past about 50 years, the Baltic absolute (geocentric) mean sea level rose at a rate slightly larger than the global average. In the northern parts, due to vertical land movements, relative sea level decreased. Sea level extremes are strongly linked to variability and changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Patterns and mechanisms contributing to erosion and accretion strongly depend on hydrodynamic conditions and their variability. For large parts of the sedimentary shores of the Baltic Sea, the wave climate and the angle at which the waves approach the nearshore are the dominant factors, and coastline changes are highly sensitive to even small variations in these driving forces. Consequently, processes contributing to Baltic sea level dynamics and coastline change are expected to vary and to change in the future leaving their imprint on future Baltic sea level and coastline change and variability. Because of the large number of contributing processes, their relevance for understanding global figures, and the outstanding data availability, we argue that global sea level research and research on coastline changes may greatly benefit from research undertaken in the Baltic Sea.

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Section: Variability Change and Acceleration Of Baltic Sea Mean Seamentioning

confidence: 86%

Sea Level Dynamics and Coastal Erosion in the Baltic Sea Region

Weisse¹,

Dailidienė²,

Hünicke³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…The same cluster of storms may be reflected by two subsequent annual maxima (one in December, another in January of the next year). Männikus et al (2020) highlighted the well-known seasonal variability in water level course in the eastern Baltic Sea. It was shown that the most reliable way to select uncorrelated water level extremes is to use the maxima of the entire relatively windy season starting from late spring or early summer (e.g., in July) and ending in June of next year.…”

Section: Projections Based On Block Maximamentioning

confidence: 86%

“…Hourly records started mostly in the middle of 2000s when automatic devices were installed. The properties and quality of these time-series are presented in (Männikus et al, 2020). In this study, time-series from seven stations (Liepāja, Kolka, Roja, Daugavgrīva, Skulte and Salacgrīva in Latvian waters and Pärnu in Estonian waters, Figure 1; Table 1) are used as these are most reliable in terms of monthly completeness.…”

Section: Observed Data In the Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The main parameters of the observation locations, basic properties of water level (presented in the BK77 system) and hourly data completeness for 01.01.1961-31.12.2018 in these locations. The maximum water level is extracted from the current version of the official data (Männikus et al, 2020 From 01 December 2014 the height system LAS200.5 (European Vertical Reference System, EVRS) is used in Latvia.…”

Section: Observed Data In the Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The quality of data in these stations is analysed in detail in Männikus et al (2019Männikus et al ( , 2020. The interplay of the water masses in the lake of Liepāja and the canal connecting the lake with the sea may in some occasions greatly affect the readings of extreme water levels.…”

Section: Observed Data In the Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Non-stationary analysis of water level extremes in Latvian waters, Baltic Sea, during 1961–2018

Kudryavtseva

Soomere

Männikus

2021

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Analysis and prediction of water level extremes in the eastern Baltic Sea are difficult tasks because of the contribution of various drivers to the water level, the presence of outliers in time series, and possibly non-stationarity of the extremes. Non-stationary modeling of extremes was performed to the block maxima of water level derived from the time series at six locations in the Gulf of Riga and one location in the Baltic proper, Baltic Sea, during 1961–2018. Several parameters of the generalized-extreme-value (GEV) distribution of the measured water level maxima both in the Baltic proper and in the interior of the Gulf of Riga exhibit statistically significant changes over these years. The most considerable changes occur to the shape parameter ξ. All stations in the interior of the Gulf of Riga experienced a regime shift: a drastic abrupt drop in the shape parameter from ξ≈0.03±0.02 to ξ≈-0.36±0.04 around 1986 followed by an increase of a similar magnitude around 1990. This means a sudden switch from a Fréchet distribution to a three-parameter Weibull distribution and back. The period of an abrupt shift (1986–1990) in the shape parameters of GEV distribution in the interior of the Gulf of Riga coincides with the significant weakening of correlation between the water level extremes and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The water level extremes at Kolka at the entrance to the Gulf of Riga reveal a significant linear trend in shape parameter following the ξ≈-0.44+0.01(t-1961) relation. There is evidence of a different course of the water level extremes in the Baltic proper and the interior of the Gulf of Riga. The described changes may lead to greatly different projections for long-term behavior of water level extremes and their return periods based on data from different intervals. Highlights. Water level extremes in the eastern Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Riga are analyzed for 1961–2018. Significant changes in parameters of generalized-extreme-value distribution are identified. Significant linear trend in shape parameter is established at Kolka. The shape parameter changes in a step-like manner. The shape parameter of GEV has regime shifts around 1986 and 1990 in the gulf.

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Mittlerer Meeresspiegelanstieg und Sturmfluten

Weisse,

Meinke

2023

Klimawandel in Deutschland

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ZusammenfassungIn Norddeutschland ist der Anstieg des mittleren Meeresspiegels eine der deutlichsten bereits messbaren Folgen des Klimawandels. An allen untersuchten Pegeln der deutschen Nord- und Ostseeküste lässt sich dieser Anstieg nachvollziehen. So zeigen die Auswertungen der Wasserstandsdaten, dass der mittlere Meeresspiegel an unseren Küsten in den letzten einhundert Jahren (1921–2020) etwa ein bis zwei Millimeter pro Jahr angestiegen ist. Dies entspricht in etwa dem globalen mittleren Meeresspiegelanstieg im selben Zeitraum. Für die letzten Jahrzehnte dokumentiert der Weltklimarat IPCC eine Beschleunigung des globalen mittleren Meeresspiegelanstiegs. An den Pegeln der deutschen Küsten lässt sich bisher keine systematische Beschleunigung nachweisen. Zwar steigt der mittlere Meeresspiegel an einigen Pegeln derzeit schneller als im langjährigen Durchschnitt, jedoch liegen die derzeitigen Anstiegsraten noch im normalen Bereich und sind oft vergleichbar mit vergangenen Zeiträumen, in denen der mittlere Meeresspiegel zum Teil sogar noch schneller stieg. Klimaszenarien deuten darauf hin, dass der globale mittlere Meeresspiegel künftig immer schneller steigen kann, insbesondere bei anhaltend hohem Treibhausgasausstoß. Verschiedene Studien weisen darauf hin, dass der künftige Meeresspiegelanstieg an unseren Küsten sich nur unwesentlich vom globalen Mittel unterscheiden wird und dass je nach zugrundeliegendem Szenario mit Anstiegen im Bereich von 30 bis 110 cm zum Ende des Jahrhunderts zu rechnen ist.

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Variations in the mean, seasonal and extreme water level on the Latvian coast, the eastern Baltic Sea, during 1961–2018

Cited by 20 publications

References 42 publications

Sea Level Dynamics and Coastal Erosion in the Baltic Sea Region

Sea Level Dynamics and Coastal Erosion in the Baltic Sea Region

Non-stationary analysis of water level extremes in Latvian waters, Baltic Sea, during 1961–2018

Mittlerer Meeresspiegelanstieg und Sturmfluten

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