Variations in Surface Air Temperatures: Part 1. Northern Hemisphere, 1881–1980

Jones, Phil; Wigley, T. M. L.; Kelly, P. M.

doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110<0059:visatp>2.0.co;2

Cited by 215 publications

(74 citation statements)

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“…Important climatic variations have occurred in the northern hemisphere throughout the twentieth century (Jones et al, 1982). Several investigations in the boreal zone, and along the altitudinal and the latitudinal tree line, have indicated a causal relationship between tree regeneration rates and twentieth century climatic changes (Kullman, 1979(Kullman, , 1986(Kullman, , 1987Morin and Payette, 1984;Payette and Filion, 1985;Steijlen and Zackrisson, 1987).…”

Section: Résumésupporting

confidence: 72%

Effect of Climatic Fluctuations on Post-Fire Regeneration of Two Jack Pine and Red Pine Populations during the Twentieth Century

Bergeron¹,

Brisson²

2007

gpq

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The age structure of two mixed red pine (Pinus resinosa Ait.) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) forests located at Lac Duparquet, northwestern Québec, were correlated with mean annual temperature and total precipitation recorded at Iroquois Falls for the period between 1913 and 1986. The age structures of both pine species showed a common pattern of regeneration characterized by low regeneration before 1930, an important regeneration peak starting around the 1930s, a dip in the age structure around 1950, a second, though less important, regeneration peak in the 1960s, and an important drop, especially for red pine, after 1970. In general, high regeneration rates were positively correlated with precipitation and negatively with temperature, suggesting that pine recruitment is negatively affected by low snow cover and/or drought. The absence of correlation with temperature suggests that the red pine northern limit may be controlled more by a change in the fire regime than by increasing temperature.Les structures d'âge des populations de pin rouge et de pin gris, échantillonnés dans deux sites du lac Duparquet (Abitibi), ont été corrélées avec la moyenne annuelle des températures et les précipitations annuelles enregistrées à Iroquois Falls, entre 1913 et 1986. Les structures d'âge montrent un patron commun caractérisé par une régénération faible avant 1930, un pic de régénération débutant au cours des années 30, une baisse importante autour de 1950, un second pic de régénération, quoique de moindre importance, dans les années 60 et une décroissance importante après 1970. L'abondance de la régénération est généralement positivement corrélée avec les précipitations et négativement corrélée avec la température, indiquant ainsi que le recrutement des individus serait négativement influencé par une couverture nivale faible ou une sécheresse prolongée. L'absence d'une corrélation positive avec la température indique que la limite nord du pin rouge serait déterminée par un changement dans le régime des feux et non par une baisse des températures.Die Altersstrukturen von zwei Wàldern mit Rotkiefer (Pinus resinosa Ait.) und Graukiefer (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) am See Duparquet, nordwestliches Québec, wurden mit der durchschnittlichen Jahrestemperatur und den gesamten gemessenen Niederschlâgen an den Iroquois Falls fur die Zeit zwischen 1913 und 1986 in Beziehung gebracht. Die Altersstrukturen beider Kiefernarten wiesen ein gemeinsames Muster der Regenerierung auf, charakterisiert durch eine niedrige Regenierung vor 1930, einen bedeutenden Regenerierungshohepunkt, der in den 30er Jahren beginnt, ein Sinken der Altersstruktur um 1950, einen zweiten, wenn auch weniger bedeutenden Regenerierungshohepunkt in den 60er Jahren und einen bedeutenden Rùckfall, besonders der Rotkiefer, nach 1970. Im allgemeinen wurden hone Regenerierungsraten positiv mit Niederschlâgen und negativ mit Temperatur in Beziehung gebracht, so dass man annehmen kann, dass die Zunahme von Kiefern durch eine niedrige Schneedecke und/oder Trockenheit negativ...

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Section: Résumésupporting

confidence: 72%

Effect of Climatic Fluctuations on Post-Fire Regeneration of Two Jack Pine and Red Pine Populations during the Twentieth Century

Bergeron¹,

Brisson²

2007

gpq

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“…The time series (Fig. 18) peaks in the 1950s to early 1960s, is low in the 1970s, and peaks again in the 1980s-1990s, in conformity with records of Northern Hemisphere surface temperature (Jones et al 1982), which roughly represent the decadal variations in global surface temperature.…”

Section: B Summer (January-february-march) Skill In Southern Africamentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Lead Forecasts of Seasonal Precipitation in Africa Using CCA

Barnston¹,

Thiao²,

Kumar³

1996

Wea. Forecasting

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A potentially operational forecast system for 3-month total precipitation for three sections of the African continent has been developed at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center using the statistical method of canonical correlation analysis (CCA). The levels and sources of predictive skills have been explored at lead times of up to 1 year, using a cross-validation design. The predictor field is quasi-global sea surface temperature (SST). Four consecutive 3-month predictor periods are used to detect evolving as well as steady-state SST conditions. Low to modest forecast skills are found for most regions and seasons of the year. However, moderate skills (correlation ú 0.5) are found for parts of northern tropical Africa (the Sahel) for lead times of up to several seasons

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“…In particular, numerous studies were conducted to understand the variations in temperatures on various spatial scales. Studies on a global scale were conducted by Barnett (1978), Yamamoto and Hoshiai (1980), Jones et al (1982Jones et al ( , 1986aJones et al ( , 1986b, and Jones and Wigley (1990). In these studies, an estimation of global warming was the main concern.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Discontinuous Climate Changes in Japan after 1900

Yonetani¹

1992

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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Because the statistical hypothesis test (the Lepage test) has successfully shown the regional abrupt changes in precipitation in Japan after 1900, changes of the temperature and sea-level air pressure are studied by means of the same method.The analysis shows that the temperature and sea-level pressure also presented discontinuous changes. Also, it is noted that the changes in the temperature were not fictitious ones caused by changes in observational methods, instrument changes or other factors.Referring to the previous study on the changes in precipitation, the climate changes which occurred in Japan after 1900 can be summarized as follows: (1) Changes detected were discontinuous ones and trends of temperature did not cause any significant changes. (2) Very noticeable abrupt warmings with a magnitude exceeding 1* of the seasonal mean temperature occurred in 1914 and 1949, and the precipitation amount increased in the successive seasons. (3) The seasonal mean temperature also changed in 1957 and 1967. These recent changes were discontinuous ones, but were neither abrupt warmings nor abrupt coolings. The mean temperature for August-October fluctuated more after 1957 and for April-July it fluctuated less after 1967. (4) Cooling trends were noticed during periods between discontinuous changes but they did not cause any definite changes to be detected by the Lepage test.(5) The sea-level air pressure changed three times. Though the quality of the sea-level air pressure records is questionable, it may be worthy to note that one of the changes occurred in 1924 and in 1924 the annual precipitation amount decreased.The discontinuous changes support the idea that the climate system is a chaotic spontaneous dynamic system. Mechanisms of the regional discontinuous changes and the relations between the very noticeable abrupt warmings and the concentration of greenhouse effect gases should be the subjects of future studies.

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Variations in Surface Air Temperatures: Part 1. Northern Hemisphere, 1881–1980

Cited by 215 publications

References 0 publications

Effect of Climatic Fluctuations on Post-Fire Regeneration of Two Jack Pine and Red Pine Populations during the Twentieth Century

Effect of Climatic Fluctuations on Post-Fire Regeneration of Two Jack Pine and Red Pine Populations during the Twentieth Century

Long-Lead Forecasts of Seasonal Precipitation in Africa Using CCA

Discontinuous Climate Changes in Japan after 1900

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