Variations in northeast Asian summer precipitation driven by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

Abstract

By analysing a 113–year (1900–2012) observational dataset, it is shown that the interdecadal fluctuation of the summer precipitation over Northeast Asia differs from that in central East Asia during the 20th century, and has experienced three interdecadal shifts in the 1920s, mid‐1960s and late 1990s. That fluctuation coincides well with the multidecadal fluctuation of the sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic, known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO affects Northeast Asia via a circumglobal teleconnection pattern extending from the North Atlantic to North America. Corresponding with the positive phase of this teleconnection pattern, a tripolar pattern emerges in the Asian–North Pacific sector, with anomalous low pressure over Northeast Asia and high pressure over Lake Baikal and the mid‐latitude western North Pacific. These results suggest that the positive phase of the AMO favours the occurrence of cold vortex over Northeast Asia and anomalous highs over Lake Baikal and the mid‐latitude western North Pacific in summer, which enhances the East Asian summer monsoon and southward intrusion of high‐latitude cold air, and eventually increases the summer precipitation in Northeast Asia. Furthermore, initialized decadal prediction simulations using the CCSM4 model reproduce well the observed variations of the AMO and its associated atmospheric teleconnection but with slightly shifted geographic locations. The simulated anomalous Northeast Asia cold vortex and strong East Asian summer monsoon, lead to above‐normal summer precipitation over Northeast Asia. The modelling results confirm that the multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic can cause the observed interdecadal variations of Northeast Asia summer precipitation. Our results suggest that to understand and predict interdecadal climate change over Northeast Asia, it is important to consider the key role of the AMO.

Impacts of global warming on summer precipitation trend over northeastern Eurasia during 1990–2010 using large‐ensemble experiments

“…(2016) identified interdecadal changes in the dominant east–west and north–south spatial patterns responsible for the interannual variation in summer precipitation. Furthermore, recent studies suggested that the fluctuation of summer precipitation over Siberia and northeast China coincides well with the multidecadal fluctuation of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic, which is known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO; Sun et al ., 2015; Piao et al ., 2020; Si et al ., 2020). The north–south dipole pattern, which increases (decreases) precipitation in eastern Siberia (northeast China), was dominant when the AMO index was positive after the mid‐1990s (Piao et al ., 2020; Sun et al ., 2020).…”

Three leading coupled modes of summer rainfall with atmospheric circulations over northern East Asia

“…The AMO can modulate summer rainfall and circulation over NEA through the mid‐latitude wave train. The close relationship between the AMO and the mid‐latitude wave train has also been reported in previous studies (Lin et al ., 2016; Wu et al ., 2016; Hong et al ., 2017; Wang et al ., 2017b; Hong et al ., 2018; Shi et al ., 2019; Si et al ., 2021). In addition to suppressed rainfall, Hong et al .…”

Streamflow variability in the past four centuries for the largest tributary of the Yellow River and its teleconnection with large‐scale climate forcing

“…As an important driving factor of climate change, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) strongly influenced climate variability over the world (Li et al ., 2009; Wang et al ., 2017) including China (Zhang et al ., 2020). The linkages of AMO and Northeast Asia are related to the teleconnection extending from the North Atlantic to North America (Si et al ., 2021). The positive phase of the AMO could increase the summer precipitation in Northeast Asia through enhancing the East Asian summer monsoon (Zhang et al ., 2020; Si et al ., 2021).…”

“…The linkages of AMO and Northeast Asia are related to the teleconnection extending from the North Atlantic to North America (Si et al ., 2021). The positive phase of the AMO could increase the summer precipitation in Northeast Asia through enhancing the East Asian summer monsoon (Zhang et al ., 2020; Si et al ., 2021). The periodic signals of 72.99a and 78.74a in our reconstructed streamflow are in the range of 65a–80a fluctuation of the AMO, indicating the impact of AMO on the long‐term hydroclimatical variability over the Weihe River basin (Figure 9).…”