Variations in mean annual tropical cyclone size in the Atlantic

Abstract

[1] Previous research has focused on predicting tropical cyclone (TC) size in near real time for individual storms. The purpose of this study is to develop models to explain interannual variations in mean Atlantic TC size, as measured by radius of maximum winds (RMAX) and radial extent of 34 knot winds (17 m s −1 ; R34), and to identify the nature of the relationship between various environmental and storm-related characteristics and TC size. Our analysis demonstrates that mean annual TC size varies systematically among the subbasins in the Atlantic and therefore it is inappropriate to develop a single model for TC size for the entire Atlantic basin. The most important variable for explaining variations in mean annual TC size is the maximum tangential wind (VMAX). VMAX is negatively related to RMAX in all subbasins and positively related to R34 in all subbasins except the Gulf of Mexico, suggesting that years with more intense TCs tend to have smaller (larger) than average RMAX (R34). Other factors, such as the relationships between sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, and Niño 3.4 suggest that environmental factors may play a secondary role in modulating mean annual TC size. Although there are some similarities with the models developed for predicting short-term changes in TC size, our results indicate that it is not appropriate to apply these models to explain variations in TC size at larger spatial scales and longer temporal scales.

Maximum wind radius estimated by the 50 kt radius: improvement of storm surge forecasting over the western North Pacific

“…The V max is negatively correlated with the R max (Shea and Gray, 1973), suggesting that years with more intense TCs tend to have smaller than average R max (Quiring et al, 2011). Figure 4, derived from the 17 studied typhoons, confirms this trend.…”

“…These differences in classification inevitably introduce differences in the relationship between R max and V max . Therefore the Quiring et al (2011) formula is not immediately applicable to TCs in other basins, though an empirical relationship between 1 and 10 min mean wind speeds could be applied for their conversion (Sampson et al, 1995).…”

“…Although this method demonstrated good accuracy, it has not yet been employed for the western North Pacific (WNP). Quiring et al (2011) used the maximum wind velocity (V max ) to estimate R max for the entire Atlantic basin: R max = 49.67 − 0.24 V max , with R max and V max in nautical miles (nmi; 1 nm = 1.85 km) and knots (kts; 1 kt = 0.52 ms −1 ), respectively. The V max is a relatively easily available parameter typically included in a TC warning.…”

Spatial Variation of Damage due to Storm Surge and Waves during Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines

“…The typhoon track data included data on location of the center of the storm, surface-level air pressure at the storm center, and maximum sustained wind speed v max [m/s]. However, it did not contain information on the radius to maximum winds r m [m], so the relation of Quiring 7) is used to estimate this (Eq. 1).…”

The Outer-Core Wind Structure of Tropical Cyclones

“…In addition to actual observations, a number of researchers have also examined the various wind radii information available from best-track datasets to establish size climatologies, for example, Kimball and Mulekar (2004), Yuan et al (2007), Lu et al (2011), Quiring et al (2011) and Carrasco et al (2014.…”