Variation in temperature of peak trait performance constrains adaptation of arthropod populations to climatic warming

Pawar, Samraat; Huxley, Paul; Smallwood, Thomas R. C.; Nesbit, Miles; Chan, Alex; Shocket, Marta S.; Johnson, Leah R.; Kontopoulos, Dimitrios-Georgios; Cator, Lauren J.

doi:10.1101/2023.01.18.524448

Cited by 10 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 80 publications

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“…However, these studies typically investigated relatively few mosquito populations from a limited portion of the species range, owing to logistical challenges of collecting, rearing, and experimenting on many wide-ranging populations. Further, mosquito thermal tolerance was typically measured on select life history traits or metabolic rates as proxies for fitness—the ultimate target of natural selection—potentially obscuring patterns of thermal adaptation 10,16,17 . Thus, the extent of variation in thermal tolerance within a species and the evidence for thermal adaptation is still unknown.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As temperatures exceed those limits under warming, mosquito populations could persist through a variety of mechanisms including range shifts to track suitable temperatures, shifts in daily and/or seasonal activity patterns to avoid high temperatures, behavioral thermoregulation (i.e., actively seeking out cooler microhabitats), and increased heat tolerance through evolutionary adaptation 7 . Of these responses, evolutionary adaptation may be particularly important for enabling long-term persistence, but the potential for mosquito thermal adaptation remains poorly understood, owing to several empirical knowledge gaps [8][9][10] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mosquito thermal tolerance is remarkably constrained across a large climatic range

Couper

Farner

Lyberger

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Whether mosquitoes can adapt apace with rapid climate warming will have a large impact on their future distributions, and consequently those of mosquito-borne diseases, but remains unknown for most species. We investigated the adaptive potential of a wide-ranging mosquito species, Aedessierrensis, by conducting a common garden experiment measuring mosquito fitness and its component life history traits. Although field-collected populations originated from vastly different thermal environments that spanned over 1,200 km, we found that populations varied in maximum fitness, but not in the thermal performance of fitness, with upper thermal limits varying by <1°C across the species range. However, for one life history trait – pupal development rate – we found clear evidence of local thermal adaptation. The upper thermal limits of pupal development rate varied between populations by 1.6°C – five times greater than the average variation in ectotherm upper limits across the same latitudinal extent – and was significantly associated with source temperatures. Despite this evidence of local thermal adaptation, we found that for all populations, temperatures in the source environment already frequently exceed their estimated upper thermal limits, suggesting high vulnerability to additional warming. This was particularly true at the adult life stage, which had the lowest upper thermal limits across traits (31.6°C), the largest impact on mosquito fitness, and occurs during the warmest part of the year. Our results suggest that evolutionary adaptation alone may be insufficient to sustain mosquito populations, and that behavioral thermoregulation and temporary coping strategies are likely important for mosquito persistence under ongoing climate warming.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mosquito thermal tolerance is remarkably constrained across a large climatic range

Couper

Farner

Lyberger

et al. 2023

Preprint

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show abstract

“…Mortality within a population is therefore expected to have the same dependence on body mass and temperature 22,28,29,77 . The relationship to temperature can be fitted with an inverse Sharpe-Schoolfield model 22,78,79 . Despite this being a more prominent relationship in smaller size classes 80 , we apply this relationship to the whole size range of individuals with the assumption that smaller sizes are important for predicting population-level responses 81 , and the effect of a flattening unimodal relationship as individuals get larger would be negligible.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic limits to Atlantic salmon population fitness at continental scales

Morris,

Bárðarson,

González-Ferreras

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Anadromous fish populations are declining globally, partly due to acute pressure from rapid environmental change in their freshwater and marine habitats. A more mechanistic understanding of how climatic and land use changes impact their population-level fitness is needed to mitigate these declines. Here we develop a model that successfully captures the thermal niche of the declining Atlantic salmon. This allows us to predict the combined effects of changes in two dominant threats to this species: climate and resource availability. Specifically, the model predicts that a 50% reduction from metabolically optimal resource supply could constrict their thermal niche by ∼7°C. We also show that daily and seasonal temperature fluctuations have a relatively minor impact. A conservative increase of 1.5°C in global temperatures will cause fitness declines for populations in higher climatic regimes, across resource levels. Our results provide new and general insights into factors limiting the distribution of extant Atlantic salmon populations. They also highlight the relative importance of future threats from climatic warming, fluctuations, and changes in resource availability due to land use change.

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“…actively seeking out cooler microhabitats), and increased heat tolerance through evolutionary adaptation [7]. Of these responses, evolutionary adaptation may be particularly important for enabling long-term persistence, but the potential for mosquito thermal adaptation remains poorly understood, owing to several empirical knowledge gaps [8][9][10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, these studies typically investigated relatively few mosquito populations from a limited portion of the species range, owing to logistical challenges of collecting, rearing and experimenting on many wide-ranging populations. Furthermore, mosquito thermal tolerance was typically measured on select life-history traits or metabolic rates, potentially obscuring patterns of thermal adaptation evident across the full life cycle [9,22,23]. Thus, the extent of variation in upper thermal tolerance among populations within a species and the evidence for thermal adaptation is still unknown.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mosquito thermal tolerance is remarkably constrained across a large climatic range

Couper,

Farner,

Lyberger

et al. 2024

Proc. R. Soc. B.

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How mosquitoes may respond to rapid climate warming remains unknown for most species, but will have major consequences for their future distributions, with cascading impacts on human well-being, biodiversity and ecosystem function. We investigated the adaptive potential of a wide-ranging mosquito species, Aedes sierrensis , across a large climatic gradient by conducting a common garden experiment measuring the thermal limits of mosquito life-history traits. Although field-collected populations originated from vastly different thermal environments that spanned over 1200 km, we found limited variation in upper thermal tolerance between populations. In particular, the upper thermal limits of all life-history traits varied by less than 3°C across the species range and, for most traits, did not differ significantly between populations. For one life-history trait—pupal development rate—we did detect significant variation in upper thermal limits between populations, and this variation was strongly correlated with source temperatures, providing evidence of local thermal adaptation for pupal development. However, we found that maximum environmental temperatures across most of the species' range already regularly exceed the highest upper thermal limits estimated under constant temperatures. This result suggests that strategies for coping with and/or avoiding thermal extremes are likely key components of current and future mosquito thermal tolerance.

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Variation in temperature of peak trait performance constrains adaptation of arthropod populations to climatic warming

Cited by 10 publications

References 80 publications

Mosquito thermal tolerance is remarkably constrained across a large climatic range

Mosquito thermal tolerance is remarkably constrained across a large climatic range

Climatic limits to Atlantic salmon population fitness at continental scales

Mosquito thermal tolerance is remarkably constrained across a large climatic range

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