Variation in Demography and Life-History Strategies Across the Range of a Declining Mountain Bird Species

Barras, Arnaud; Blache, Sébastien; Schaub, Michael; Arlettaz, Raphaël

doi:10.3389/fevo.2021.780706

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…Indeed, our model confirms a negative effect of breeding-season temperature on growth rate for this species. Also, our predicted current growth rate (1.05) coincides with the one measured by Barras et al [66] (1.04). Second, comparing the simulated abundances under observed climate with a no-climate change scenario, we were able to estimate the degree to which predicted abundance trends could be attributed to recent climate change.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Demography–environment relationships improve mechanistic understanding of range dynamics under climate change

Malchow

Härtig

Reeg

et al. 2023

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Species respond to climate change with range and abundance dynamics. To better explain and predict them, we need a mechanistic understanding of how the underlying demographic processes are shaped by climatic conditions. Here, we aim to infer demography–climate relationships from distribution and abundance data. For this, we developed spatially explicit, process-based models for eight Swiss breeding bird populations. These jointly consider dispersal, population dynamics and the climate-dependence of three demographic processes—juvenile survival, adult survival and fecundity. The models were calibrated to 267 nationwide abundance time series in a Bayesian framework. The fitted models showed moderate to excellent goodness-of-fit and discriminatory power. The most influential climatic predictors for population performance were the mean breeding-season temperature and the total winter precipitation. Contemporary climate change benefitted the population trends of typical mountain birds leading to lower population losses or even slight increases, whereas lowland birds were adversely affected. Our results emphasize that generic process-based models embedded in a robust statistical framework can improve our predictions of range dynamics and may allow disentangling of the underlying processes. For future research, we advocate a stronger integration of experimental and empirical studies in order to gain more precise insights into the mechanisms by which climate affects populations. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions’.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Demography–environment relationships improve mechanistic understanding of range dynamics under climate change

Malchow

Härtig

Reeg

et al. 2023

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In fact, our model confirms a negative effect of breeding-season temperature on growth rate for this species. Also our modelled current growth rate (1.05) coincides with the one measured by Barras et al [54] (1.04). Second, comparing the simulated total abundances under observed climate against a no-climate change scenario, we were able to estimate in how far the predicted abundance trends could be attributed to climate change.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Demography-environment relationships improve mechanistic understanding of range dynamics under climate change

Malchow

Härtig

Reeg

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Species responses to climate change are widely detected as range and abundance changes. To better explain and predict them, we need a mechanistic understanding of how the underlying demographic processes are shaped by climatic conditions. We built spatially-explicit, process-based models for eight Swiss breeding bird populations. They jointly consider dispersal, population dynamics and the climate-dependence of three demographic processes - juvenile survival, adult survival and fecundity. The models were calibrated to two-decade abundance time-series in a Bayesian framework. We assessed goodness-of-fit and discriminatory power of the models with different metrics, indicating fair to excellent model fit. The most influential climatic predictors for population performance were the mean breeding-season temperature and the total winter precipitation. Maps of overall growth rate highlighted demographically suitable areas. Further, benefits from contemporary climate change were detected for typical mountain birds, whereas lowland birds were adversely affected. Embedding generic process-based models in a solid statistical framework improves our mechanistic understanding of range dynamics and allows disentangling the underlying abiotic and biotic processes. For future research, we advocate a stronger integration of experimental and empirical measurements and more detailed predictors in order to generate precise insights into the processes by which climate affects populations.

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Variation in reproductive success in a fragmented Meadow Pipit population: a role for vegetation succession?

Anger,

Förschler,

Anthes

2023

J Ornithol

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Most farmland birds experience strong declines across Europe. These declines are typically associated with agricultural intensification but research on alternative local causes remains scarce. We investigated variation in reproductive success as a potential driver for the observed population declines in a fragmented population of the Meadow Pipit Anthus pratensis, a representative inhabitant of extensively managed mountain grasslands across Europe. Intense nest surveys in the entire Meadow Pipit metapopulation of the Northern Black Forest (SW Germany) between 2020 and 2022 provided information on reproductive success for 53 females distributed across nine habitat patches along an 18 km ridge of the Northern Black Forest. Hatching dates delayed by approx. 5.0 days per 100 m altitude and were almost 10 days later in a year with cold and rainy spring weather. Mean reproductive success per female and year (3.45 fledglings) was low compared to literature values (approx. 4.5) and may thus drive ongoing population declines. Mayfield nest survival estimates (approx. 51% across the nesting period) were comparably high, with most nest failures linked with predation or adverse weather. Low reproductive success further associated with comparably small clutch sizes and low fractions of second broods in habitat patches characterized by homogeneously dense swards. We suggest that restoration through extensive permanent cattle grazing coupled with succession control may be a key factor to increase population productivity.

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Variation in Demography and Life-History Strategies Across the Range of a Declining Mountain Bird Species

Cited by 5 publications

References 66 publications

Demography–environment relationships improve mechanistic understanding of range dynamics under climate change

Demography–environment relationships improve mechanistic understanding of range dynamics under climate change

Demography-environment relationships improve mechanistic understanding of range dynamics under climate change

Variation in reproductive success in a fragmented Meadow Pipit population: a role for vegetation succession?

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