Variable 21st Century Climate Change Response for Rivers in High Mountain Asia at Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales

Khanal, Sonu; Lutz, Arthur; Kraaijenbrink, Philip; Hurk, Bart van den; Yao, Tianci; Immerzeel, Walter W.

doi:10.1029/2020wr029266

Cited by 96 publications

(87 citation statements)

References 94 publications

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“…The Upper Indus and Amu Darya located in more arid areas have a higher percentage of melt runoff contribution to their flows, while the rivers in the eastern and central region such as the Mekong, Salween and the upper Ganges have a higher contribution from rainfall. In the Upper Indus basin, melt runoff contributes about 45% of the total discharge compared to 13 and 15% in the Ganges and the Brahmaputra at the outlet (Khanal et al 2021). In some rivers of the Upper Indus, the melt contribution (Khanal et al 2021) to total discharge is as high as 90%.…”

Section: Cumulative Impact On River Hydrologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the Upper Indus basin, melt runoff contributes about 45% of the total discharge compared to 13 and 15% in the Ganges and the Brahmaputra at the outlet (Khanal et al 2021). In some rivers of the Upper Indus, the melt contribution (Khanal et al 2021) to total discharge is as high as 90%. In the eastern basin of the HKH like the Yellow and the Yantze, rainfall runoff contributes up to 80% of the total discharge.…”

Section: Cumulative Impact On River Hydrologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The change in basin runoff, however, depends on contributions of cryosphere melt and precipitation. Figure 12.2 shows the present contribution of rainfall runoff and melt runoff to total discharge in the upstream basins of HKH rivers (Khanal et al 2021). The Upper Indus and Amu Darya located in more arid areas have a higher percentage of melt runoff contribution to their flows, while the rivers in the eastern and central region such as the Mekong, Salween and the upper Ganges have a higher contribution from rainfall.…”

Section: Cumulative Impact On River Hydrologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Fig. 12.2 Contributions of rainfall runoff (top) and snow and glacier melt runoff (bottom) to total river flow coming from the mountains from 1985 to 2014(Khanal et al 2021) …”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Rainfall runoff and melt runoff contribution to total discharge of ten major river basins of the HKH region from 1985 to 2014(Khanal et al 2021) …”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Great Glacier and Snow-Dependent Rivers of Asia and Climate Change: Heading for Troubled Waters

Molden

Shrestha

Immerzeel

et al. 2021

Water Resources Development and Management

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The glacier-and snow-fed river basins of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) mountains provide water to 1.9 billion people in Asia. The signs of climate change in the HKH mountains are clear, with increased warming and accelerated melting of snow and glaciers. This threatens the water, food, energy and livelihood security for many in Asia. The links between mountains and plains and the differential impacts of climate change on societies upstream and downstream need to be better established to improve adaptation measures. This chapter sheds light on climate change impacts on the cryosphere and mountains, the impact on river systems and the social consequences of such changes in mountains, hills and plains. In high mountains and hills, the impact of climate change is clear, as seen in changes in agropastoral systems and the increasing occurrence of floods and droughts, with losses and damages already high. Moving downstream, the climate change signal is harder to separate from other environmental and management factors. This chapter outlines how climate change in the mountains will impact various sectors in the hills and plains, such as hydropower, irrigation, cities, industries and the environment. It discusses how climate change will potentially lead to increased disasters and out-migration of people. The chapter concludes by highlighting necessary actions, such as the need to reduce emissions globally, build regional cooperation between HKH countries, increase technical and financial support for adaptation, and more robust and interdisciplinary science to address changing policy needs.

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Section: Cumulative Impact On River Hydrologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Cumulative Impact On River Hydrologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Cumulative Impact On River Hydrologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Fig. 12.2 Contributions of rainfall runoff (top) and snow and glacier melt runoff (bottom) to total river flow coming from the mountains from 1985 to 2014(Khanal et al 2021) …”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Rainfall runoff and melt runoff contribution to total discharge of ten major river basins of the HKH region from 1985 to 2014(Khanal et al 2021) …”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Great Glacier and Snow-Dependent Rivers of Asia and Climate Change: Heading for Troubled Waters

Molden

Shrestha

Immerzeel

et al. 2021

Water Resources Development and Management

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Response of runoff components to climate change in the source‐region of the Yellow River on the Tibetan plateau

Zhang

2022

Hydrological Processes

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Climate change will likely increase the total streamflow in most headwaters on the Tibetan Plateau in the next decades, yet the response of runoff components to climate change and permafrost thaw remain largely uncertain. Here, we investigate the changes in runoff components under a changing climate, based on a high-resolution cryosphere-hydrology model (Spatial Processes in Hydrology model, SPHY) and multi-decadal streamflow observations at the upstream (Jimai) and downstream stations (Maqu and Tangnaihai) in the source-region of the Yellow River (SYR). We find that rainfall flow dominates the runoff regime in SYR (contributions of 48%-56%), followed by snowmelt flow (contributions of 26%/23% at Maqu/Tangnaihai). Baseflow is more important at Jimai (32%) than at the the downstream stations (21%-23%). Glacier meltwater from the Anyê Maqên and Bayankala Mountains contributes negligibly to the downstream total runoff. With increasing temperature and precipitation, the increase in total runoff is smaller in the warm and wet downstream stations than in the cold and dry upstream station. This is because of a higher increase in evapotranspiration and a larger reduction in snowmelt flow in the downstream region in response to a warming climate. With temperature increase, there is less increase in rainfall flow in the downstream region due to increased water loss through evapotranspiration. Meanwhile, the decline in snowmelt flow is larger further downstream, which can negatively impact the spring irrigation for the whole Yellow River basin that supports the livelihoods of 140 million people. Importantly, we find that baseflow plays an increasingly important role in the permafrost-dominated upstream region with atmospheric warming and permafrost thaw, accompanied by decreased surface flow. These findings improve our current understanding of how different hydrological processes respond to climate change and provide insights for optimizing hydropower and irrigation systems in the entire Yellow River basin under a rapidly changing climate.

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Response of runoff and its components to climate change and its future trend in the source region of the Yangtze River

Gao,

Li,

Tang

et al. 2024

Hydrological Processes

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Under global climate changes, the temperature and precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau changed significantly, causing accelerated melting of glaciers and snow and changes in runoff. The response of runoff and its components to climate change is important for water resource management and ecology conservation in the region. Therefore, the Spatial Processes in Hydrology model, a distributed cold‐zone hydrological model that contains a glacial ablation module, was used to simulate runoff in the Yangtze River source located in the middle of the Tibetan Plateau during 2000–2050, and the Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, relative error and coefficient of determination (R2) for the calibration period and validation period revealed that the model performed well in most years. The results showed that rainfall runoff contributed the most to the total runoff (61%), followed by baseflow (23%), snowmelt runoff (12%) and glacier runoff (4%) in the Yangtze River source during 2000–2020. The runoff amounts of the three source rivers, Dangqu River, Tuotuo River and Chumar River, accounted for approximately 53% of the total runoff in the Yangtze River source basin, with rainfall runoff (52%) contributing the most and glacier runoff (6%) contributing the least. Compared to the contributions of glacial runoff in the Dangqu River (9%) and Tuotuo River (7%), the proportion of glacial runoff in the Chumar River is small (1%). Under the CMIP6 climate model, the mean runoff depth is predicted to increase by approximately 13.5 mm from 2020 to 2050 compared with that from 2000 to 2020.

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Variable 21st Century Climate Change Response for Rivers in High Mountain Asia at Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales

Cited by 96 publications

References 94 publications

The Great Glacier and Snow-Dependent Rivers of Asia and Climate Change: Heading for Troubled Waters

The Great Glacier and Snow-Dependent Rivers of Asia and Climate Change: Heading for Troubled Waters

Response of runoff components to climate change in the source‐region of the Yellow River on the Tibetan plateau

Response of runoff and its components to climate change and its future trend in the source region of the Yangtze River

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