Variability of rainfall and effective onset and length of the monsoon season over a sub-humid climatic environment

Subash, N.; Singh, S. S.; Priya, N. Gowri

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.11.020

Cited by 40 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…It is worth noting that several researchers have used this test to detect trends in rainfall data (Mann 1945;Kendall 1975;de la Casa andNasello 2010, 2012;Krishnakumar et al 2009;Subash et al 2011). Test statistic S defined as…”

Section: Trend Detection Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent homogeneity analysis and long-term spatio-temporal rainfall trends in Nigeria

Akinsanola

Ogunjobi

2015

Theor Appl Climatol

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Accurately predicting precipitation trends is vital in the economic development of a country. Ground observed data from the Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET) was analyzed to study the long-term spatio-temporal trends of rainfall on annual and seasonal scales for 23 stations in Nigeria during a 40-year period spanning from 1974 to 2013. After testing the presence of autocorrelation, Mann-Kendall (modified Mann-Kendall) test was applied to non-autocorrelated (autocorrelated) series to detect the trends in rainfall data. Theil and Sen's slope estimator test was used to find the magnitude of change over a time period. Pettitt's test, Standard Normal Homogeneity Test, and Buishand's test were further used to test the homogeneity of the rainfall series. The results show an increasing trend in annual rainfall; however, only nine stations have a significant increase during the period of study. On the seasonal time scale, a significant increasing trend was observed in the pre-and post-monsoon seasons, while only nine stations show a significant increasing trend in monsoon rainfall and a significant decreasing trend in the winter rainfall over the last 40 years. During the study period, 15.4 and 13.90 % increase were estimated for annual and monsoonal rainfall, respectively. Furthermore, seven stations exhibit changes in mean rainfall while majority of the stations considered (Eighteen stations) exhibit homogeneous trends in annual and seasonal rainfall over the country. The performance of the different tests used in this study was consistent at the verified significance level.

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Section: Trend Detection Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent homogeneity analysis and long-term spatio-temporal rainfall trends in Nigeria

Akinsanola

Ogunjobi

2015

Theor Appl Climatol

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“…It is nonparametric statistical test and has been widely used in hydrometeorological studies (Subash et al, 2011;. Its advantage is that it does not require the samples to obey the specific probability distribution type as well as not interfere with a few abnormal values.…”

Section: Mann-kendal Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the long‐term changes of drought over China (1948–2012) from different methods of potential evapotranspiration estimations

Wang

Gong

Lü

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Assessing the long-term drought changes is of large interest for understanding the impact of climate change on water resources. Here we have attempted to assess the long-term drought changes over China using the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index with Penman-Monteith (scPDSI PM ) and Thornthwaite (scPDSI Th ) methods for potential evapotranspiration (PET) estimations, respectively, so as to understand the impact of different PET methods on drought assessment. Both scPDSI PM and scPDSI Th appear to have drying trends in the humid and transitional climatic regions, which are particularly significant in the north China. Compared to scPDSI PM , the scPDSI Th data have resulted in exaggerated drought severity in the north China since 1980s, and such exaggeration is particularly significant for extreme droughts in terms of the occurrences and the intensity. In the dry climatic regions of northwest China, both scPDSI PM and scPDSI Th appear to exhibit adequate wetting trends; however, both data have shown drying trends of intensity when drought occurs, indicating there are more extreme dry conditions in the context of generally wetting background. Surprisingly, scPDSI PM is found to result in exaggerated droughts rather than scPDSI Th in the northwest China.

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“…Subash et al . () studied monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall as well as rainy day trends in four locations of Bihar using the MK test and the Theil–Sen approach (TSA). Analysis of precipitation data indicates that the number of rainy days has increased during the winter as well as annually, at all four sites.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Methodology for the determination of trends for climatic and hydrometric parameters upstream of the Dez Dam

Adib

Navaseri

Shenasa

2017

Weather

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In recent years, extreme droughts have occurred in the Middle East. In order to produce forecasts which ascertain the possibility of continuing drought, consideration of climatic and hydrometric data is necessary. This article presents a case study of three hydrometric stations – Telezang, Tang 5 Bakteari and Sepeed Dasht Sezar – upstream of the Dez Dam in Iran. The data examined were temperature, precipitation and flow discharge from 1977 to 2008. The non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test and the Theil‐Sen approach were used for the detection of data trends. Different probability distributions were also used, and momentum, linear momentum and maximum likelihood methods were employed in order to determine their parameters. The Akaike Information Criterion and Bayesian Information Criterion were used to determine the governing probability distributions for the data. By using of a part of the time series (1977–1996), monthly flow discharges at the three stations were forecasted using the non‐parametric method (MK test and TSA) and regression relations were established between monthly flow discharges and other climatic and hydrometric data. This study uses the remainder of the time series (1997–2008) for the verification of monthly flow discharge forecasts. Comparison between observed data (1997–2008) and forecasted monthly flow discharges (using the Root Mean Square Error method) determines the best method for forecasting monthly flow discharge at each station. This research illustrates that the governing probability distributions for observed and forecasted data are similar. The non‐parametric method shows that monthly flow discharges and precipitation have a decreasing trend for most months, and that mean, maximum and minimum temperatures have an increasing trend in summer and a decreasing trend in winter

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Variability of rainfall and effective onset and length of the monsoon season over a sub-humid climatic environment

Cited by 40 publications

References 12 publications

Recent homogeneity analysis and long-term spatio-temporal rainfall trends in Nigeria

Recent homogeneity analysis and long-term spatio-temporal rainfall trends in Nigeria

On the long‐term changes of drought over China (1948–2012) from different methods of potential evapotranspiration estimations

Methodology for the determination of trends for climatic and hydrometric parameters upstream of the Dez Dam

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