Variability of Indian summer monsoon onset over Kerala during 1971–2018

Ghanekar, S. P.; Bansod, S. D.; Narkhedkar, S. G.; Kulkarni, Ashwini

doi:10.1007/s00704-019-02853-5

Cited by 8 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…The index was calculated using the NCEP2 data. In the historical period, the calculated onset values were found to be strongly correlated with the monsoon onset from Ghanekar et al (2019) with a correlation coefficient of 0.53, indicated that the HWSI can characterize the transition of monsoon well. The ISM intensity is calculated using the normalized mean HWSI values from June to September during 1979-2018.…”

Section: Monsoon Indexmentioning

confidence: 88%

Large-scale circulation dominated precipitation variation and its effect on potential water availability across the Tibetan Plateau

Wang

Chen

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The large-scale circulation, Indian summer monsoon (ISM), has a strong influence on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) since its onset and intensity have profound impacts on regional precipitation, which then can supply water for glaciers, lakes, rivers and social demands. Weakening monsoon intensity and longer monsoon duration seem contradictory, as a weaker monsoon tends to produce less precipitation, while a longer duration increases the probability of precipitation. Past research has focused on how ISM’s intensity affects precipitation, with little consideration of the impacts of ISM duration. Here, we investigated the long-term (1979–2100) variability in the ISM’s duration and intensity. We found a prolonged ISM from 1979–2018, accompanied by monsoon weakening. Different combinations of duration and intensity have resulted in different spatial patterns of precipitation across the southeastern TP. Weakening and proglonged ISM is helpful to produce more precipitation around the southeastern TP, with intensity acting as a dominant control. Afterwards, an obvious impact can be found on potential water availability. Climate projections suggest that the ISM will weaken and lengthen until 2100, thereby increasing precipitation and potential water availability across the southeastern TP. This long-term trend should receive more attentions as increased regional extreme precipitation will increase the probability of flood risks until the end of this century.

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Section: Monsoon Indexmentioning

confidence: 88%

Large-scale circulation dominated precipitation variation and its effect on potential water availability across the Tibetan Plateau

Wang

Chen

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…The withdrawal date from EOF-based index is 283 Julian days, comparable to previous indices with a smaller difference. A criterion from Ghanekar et al (2019) is used to evaluate the performance of this new index. This criterion is based on rainfall, wind field and Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and is used in operational mode for the India Meteorological Department (IMD) since 2006.…”

Section: A Multivariance Monsoon Index and Its Impacts On Rainfall An...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative analysis of indices in capturing the onset and withdrawal of the South Asian Summer Monsoon

Li,

Wang,

Zhong

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Commun.

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The South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) exerts a profound influence on South Asia and the southern Tibetan Plateau. The timing of its onset and withdrawal significantly impacts regional rainfall, a critical water source for agriculture and the economy. Various SASM indices, employing different variables, have been employed to gauge monsoon onset and withdrawal, each demonstrating distinct characteristics. This study provides a comprehensive comparison of prominent SASM indices related to onset and withdrawal, revealing similar timing but varying magnitudes. Across nearly all indices, a consistent pattern emerges, indicating a trend towards earlier onset and delayed retreat during 1979-2018, marked by pronounced interdecadal variability, with a notable turning point around 1997. The earlier onset and later retreat are likely to enhance rainfall and potential water resources for South Asia and the Tibetan Plateau. Delving into the mechanisms revealed a delayed connection between the SASM onset to the large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies characterized by the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) in the preceding spring, but a simultaneous connection between SASM withdrawl and ONI in autumn. Current index definitions, relying on single or dual variables, may fall short in accurately depicting monsoon onset and withdrawal. To address this, we introduce a novel monsoon index derived from multiple large-scale circulation variables, offering improved trend capture and enhanced representation of interannual variability in SASM onset and withdrawal. This study advances our understanding of SASM indices and their correlation with monsoon rainfall, providing insights into the dynamics of SASM onset and withdrawal.

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Monsoon 2020: An Interaction of Upper Tropospheric Thermodynamics and Dynamics Over the Tibetan Plateau and the Western Pacific

Vaid

Kripalani

2021

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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Variability of Indian summer monsoon onset over Kerala during 1971–2018

Cited by 8 publications

References 16 publications

Large-scale circulation dominated precipitation variation and its effect on potential water availability across the Tibetan Plateau

Large-scale circulation dominated precipitation variation and its effect on potential water availability across the Tibetan Plateau

Comparative analysis of indices in capturing the onset and withdrawal of the South Asian Summer Monsoon

Monsoon 2020: An Interaction of Upper Tropospheric Thermodynamics and Dynamics Over the Tibetan Plateau and the Western Pacific

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