Value of pre‐construction proof loading information for structural design

Abstract

We introduce a new concept that enables a decision analyst to explore and quantify the benefits of decision alternatives that exceed the scope of a pre‐posterior decision or value of information analysis. This new concept, namely, the expected value of sample information and action analysis, facilitates to examine decision alternatives that become only possible with additional knowledge. The concept is introduced by taking basis in proof load testing as a source of (pre‐)posterior knowledge. Pre‐posterior decision analysis is necessary in order to optimize the structural design through proof loading information. The application of the common value of information analysis and the new value of information and action analysis are demonstrated in a case study.

Updating structural reliability efficiently using load measurement

“…Direct numerical integration [17,18,20] becomes prohibitive for multidimensional problems, so that such evaluations generally require the use of Monte-Carlo techniques [19,34,35], which still represent a significant undertaking when numerical simulations are required to evaluate the performance function. Similarly, Bayesian updating of the probability of failure [11,22] require the probability of the observed load conditional on failure not occurring to be evaluated, again involving repeated evaluation of the performance function.…”

“…Previous work on updating of structural reliability for existing structures using the lower bound on resistance capacity implied by severe loading or proof load-testing rely on a Bayesian updating formulation, in which the distribution of the structural resistance is truncated at the limit implied by the observed load [17,18]. Updated reliability values are then obtained either by integration of the posterior distribution function [18,19,20,21], or by updating the failure probability using the probability of the implied resistance bound conditional on the structure surviving the loading event [11,22].…”

Verringerung der Versagenswahrscheinlichkeit von Brücken durch experimentelle Traglastversuche

“…Die Verbindung der Berechnung von Versagenswahrscheinlichkeiten und experimentellen Traglastversuchen ist Gegenstand zahlreicher Veröffentlichungen [17, 35, 36, 42–44].…”