Validation of Convective Parameters in MPI-ESM Decadal Hindcasts (1971–2012) against ERA-Interim Reanalyses

Pistotnik, Georg; Groenemeijer, Pieter; Sausen, R.

doi:10.1127/metz/2016/0649

Cited by 10 publications

(10 citation statements)

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“…northern Italy, the Alps, and the Balkan Peninsula, mainly western Greece and Bulgaria. These results partially confirm earlier studies (Pistotnik et al 2016;Pú cik et al 2017;Rädler et al 2018).…”

Section: Multiannual Changes In the Mean Cyclesupporting

confidence: 92%

A Climatology of Thunderstorms across Europe from a Synthesis of Multiple Data Sources

et al. 2019

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The climatology of (severe) thunderstorm days is investigated on a pan-European scale for the period of 1979–2017. For this purpose, sounding measurements, surface observations, lightning data from ZEUS (a European-wide lightning detection system) and European Cooperation for Lightning Detection (EUCLID), ERA-Interim, and severe weather reports are compared and their respective strengths and weaknesses are discussed. The research focuses on the annual cycles in thunderstorm activity and their spatial variability. According to all datasets thunderstorms are the most frequent in the central Mediterranean, the Alps, the Balkan Peninsula, and the Carpathians. Proxies for severe thunderstorm environments show similar patterns, but severe weather reports instead have their highest frequency over central Europe. Annual peak thunderstorm activity is in July and August over northern, eastern, and central Europe, contrasting with peaks in May and June over western and southeastern Europe. The Mediterranean, driven by the warm waters, has predominant activity in the fall (western part) and winter (eastern part) while the nearby Iberian Peninsula and eastern Turkey have peaks in April and May. Trend analysis of the mean annual number of days with thunderstorms since 1979 indicates an increase over the Alps and central, southeastern, and eastern Europe with a decrease over the southwest. Multiannual changes refer also to changes in the pattern of the annual cycle. Comparison of different data sources revealed that although lightning data provide the most objective sampling of thunderstorm activity, short operating periods and areas devoid of sensors limit their utility. In contrast, reanalysis complements these disadvantages to provide a longer climatology, but is prone to errors related to modeling thunderstorm occurrence and the numerical simulation itself.

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Section: Multiannual Changes In the Mean Cyclesupporting

confidence: 92%

A Climatology of Thunderstorms across Europe from a Synthesis of Multiple Data Sources

et al. 2019

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“…We find an increase in LWCF and IWP with dcs as the increase in dcs leaves more ice clouds at high-level, thereby decreasing the stability of the atmosphere and hence the decrease in PRECC and PRECT. We also find that the response of precipitation simulation to ai and as is opposite to dcs-increase in ai ( as ) causes more ice (snow) particles to fall; thus, it reduces CLDHGH, LWCF, and IWP [64][65][66] . With the increase in cdnl and wsub , there is an increase in PRECL and LWP due to an increase in stratiform low clouds and low-level cloud droplet concentration, respectively.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 70%

“…As a result of the reduction in LWCF, TAS decreases mildly due to reduced greenhouse effect 33 , 49 , 58 . Falling of more ice with increasing causes more precipitation (PRECT and PRECC), most likely due to increased convective instability 65 , 66 . The effect of and on SWCF is small and non-linear, in line to the response of , which acts quite similar to , but for snow.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty quantification based cloud parameterization sensitivity analysis in the NCAR community atmosphere model

Pathak

Sahany

Mishra

2020

Sci Rep

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Using uncertainty quantification techniques, we carry out a sensitivity analysis of a large number (17) of parameters used in the NCAR CAM5 cloud parameterization schemes. The LLNL PSUADE software is used to identify the most sensitive parameters by performing sensitivity analysis. Using Morris One-At-a-Time (MOAT) method, we find that the simulations of global annual mean total precipitation, convective, large-scale precipitation, cloud fractions (total, low, mid, and high), shortwave cloud forcing, longwave cloud forcing, sensible heat flux, and latent heat flux are very sensitive to the threshold-relative-humidity-for-stratiform-low-clouds ($$rhminl)$$ r h m i n l ) and the auto-conversion-size-threshold-for-ice-to-snow $$\left( {dcs} \right).$$ dcs . The seasonal and regime specific dependence of some parameters in the simulation of precipitation is also found for the global monsoons and storm track regions. Through sensitivity analysis, we find that the Somali jet strength and the tropical easterly jet associated with the south Asian summer monsoon (SASM) show a systematic dependence on $$dcs$$ dcs and $$rhminl$$ rhminl . The timing of the withdrawal of SASM over India shows a monotonic increase (delayed withdrawal) with an increase in $$dcs$$ dcs . Overall, we find that $$rhminl$$ rhminl , $$dcs$$ dcs , $$ai,$$ a i , and $$as$$ as are the most sensitive cloud parameters and thus are of high priority in the model tuning process, in order to reduce uncertainty in the simulation of past, present, and future climate.

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“…In particular, a significant increase of the tropospheric lapse rate was found over NE and Europe in the second half of the 20th century (Mokhov and Akperov 2006) with the possible intensification of convective processes. An indication of such a tendency is the increase of convective cloud cover (Sun et al 2001, Chernokulsky et al 2011, 2017a and convective instability indices (Riemann-Campe et al 2009, Pistotnik et al 2017 over NE, which may lead to the more frequent formation of severe convective events (Kurgansky et al 2013, Chernokulsky et al 2017b, Taszarek et al 2018. Favorable conditions for severe convective events may become more frequent over the course of the 21st century, according to climate model projections (Marsh et al 2009, Púčik et al 2017, Chernokulsky et al 2017b.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed changes in convective and stratiform precipitation in Northern Eurasia over the last five decades

Chernokulsky

Kozlov

Zolina

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Long-term changes in convective and stratiform precipitation in Northern Eurasia (NE) over the last five decades are estimated. Different types of precipitation are separated according to their genesis using routine meteorological observations of precipitation, weather conditions, and morphological cloud types for the period 1966-2016. From an initial 538 stations, the main analysis is performed for 326 stations that have no gaps and meet criteria regarding the artificial discontinuity absence in the data. A moderate increase in total precipitation over the analyzed period is accompanied by a relatively strong growth of convective precipitation and a concurrent decrease in stratiform precipitation. Convective and stratiform precipitation totals, precipitation intensity and heavy precipitation sums depict major changes in summer, while the relative contribution of the two precipitation types to the total precipitation (including the contribution of heavy rain events) show the strongest trends in transition seasons. The contribution of heavy convective showers to the total precipitation increases with the statistically significant trend of 1%-2% per decade in vast NE regions, reaching 5% per decade at a number of stations. The largest increase is found over the southern Far East region, mostly because of positive changes in convective precipitation intensity with a linear trend of more than 1 mm/day/ decade, implying a 13.8% increase per 1°C warming. In general, stratiform precipitation decreases over the majority of NE regions in all seasons except for winter. This decrease happens at slower rates in comparison to the convective precipitation changes. The overall changes in the character of precipitation over the majority of NE regions are characterized by a redistribution of precipitation types toward more heavy showers.

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Validation of Convective Parameters in MPI-ESM Decadal Hindcasts (1971–2012) against ERA-Interim Reanalyses

Cited by 10 publications

References 0 publications

A Climatology of Thunderstorms across Europe from a Synthesis of Multiple Data Sources

A Climatology of Thunderstorms across Europe from a Synthesis of Multiple Data Sources

Uncertainty quantification based cloud parameterization sensitivity analysis in the NCAR community atmosphere model

Observed changes in convective and stratiform precipitation in Northern Eurasia over the last five decades

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