Validation in the agent-based modelling paradigm: problems and a solution

Heath, Brian L.; Ciarallo, Frank W.; Hill, Raymond R.

doi:10.1504/ijspm.2012.049817

Cited by 12 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Conceptual modeling of complex systems is extremely important for multiple subsystems and domains are involved in model development life cycle, and there are numerous efforts which focus on formalize conceptual models. A typical example is model theory (Tolk, Diallo, and Padilla 2011) which provides a mathematical foundation for conceptual models, and another example is diagramming techniques for building formal conceptual models (Heath, Ciarallo, and Hill 2012).…”

Section: Dsm-based Conceptual Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

A DSM-based multi-paradigm simulation modeling approach for complex systems

Li¹,

Lei²,

Wang³

et al. 2013

2013 Winter Simulations Conference (WSC)

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Complex systems contain hierarchical heterogeneous subsystems and diverse domain behavior patterns, which bring a grand challenge for simulation modeling. To cope with this challenge, the M&S community extends their existing modeling paradigms to promote reusability, interoperability and composability of simulation models and systems; however, these efforts are relatively isolated and limited to their own technical space. In this paper, we propose a domain specific modeling (DSM)-based multi-paradigm modeling approach which utilizes model driven engineering techniques to integrate current M&S paradigms and promote formal and automated model development. This approach constructs a simulation model framework to architect the structure of the overall simulation system and combines multiple M&S formalisms to describe the diverse domain behaviors; moreover, it provides domain specific language and environment support for conceptual modeling based on the model framework and formalisms. An application example on combat system effectiveness simulation illustrates the applicability of the approach.

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Section: Dsm-based Conceptual Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

A DSM-based multi-paradigm simulation modeling approach for complex systems

Li¹,

Lei²,

Wang³

et al. 2013

2013 Winter Simulations Conference (WSC)

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“…3,[20][21][22] Conceptual validity determines that the theories and assumptions underlying the conceptual model are correct and that the model's structure, logic, and causal relationships are ''reasonable'' for the intended purpose of the model. 3,23 For the sake of replication, 17 conceptual validity requires, at a minimum, a well-documented model.…”

Section: The Epstein Civil Violence Conceptual Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Having reviewed the Epstein civil violence conceptual model, we note that the literature reflects that establishing both conceptual validity and operational validity are necessary to the process of validating an ABM. 3,20–22 Conceptual validity determines that the theories and assumptions underlying the conceptual model are correct and that the model’s structure, logic, and causal relationships are “reasonable” for the intended purpose of the model. 3,23 For the sake of replication, 17 conceptual validity requires, at a minimum, a well-documented model.…”

Section: The Epstein Civil Violence Conceptual Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

A demonstration of ABM validation techniques by applying docking to the Epstein civil violence model

Appleget

Burks

Jaye

2013

Journal of Defense Modeling & Simulation

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The increased focus of the United States Department of Defense (DoD) on irregular warfare and counterinsurgency has served to identify the lack of credible models and simulations to represent the relevant civilian populations -the centers of gravity of such operations. While agent-based models (ABMs) have enjoyed widespread use in the social science community, many senior DoD officials are skeptical that agent-based models can provide useful tools to underpin DoD analysis, training, and acquisition needs mainly because of validation concerns. This paper uses docking and other forms of alignment that enable the linking of the Epstein civil violence agent-based model results to other models. These examples of model-to-model analysis could serve to assist and encourage DoD ABM human domain model validation efforts. BackgroundIn 2006, as the campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan wore on, the first codification of the doctrine that was being developed and applied was published in FM 3-24/MCWP 3-33.5, Counterinsurgency. This document made clear that the focus of a counterinsurgency campaign is on influencing local populations. Senior US Department of Defense (DoD) officials, who sought to better understand how their armed forces should be organized, trained and equipped for such operations, looked to their modeling and simulation community for help. That community, well-equipped to examine kinetic operations, had little to contribute in this domain. Modeling human and social behavior quickly became the focus of the DoD modeling and simulation (M&S) community, and agent-based models (ABMs) began to receive increased interest and scrutiny. ABMs have enjoyed popularity within several areas of the social sciences, and their use, coupled with the situations in Iraq and Afghanistan, has attracted the attention of DoD.This increased DoD focus on irregular warfare (IW) and counterinsurgency has served to identify the lack of credible models and simulations to represent civilian populations in conflict environments. In addition, the lack of social science expertise to inform DoD M&S efforts and the lack of data to represent social science phenomenon have also been identified as critical gaps affecting DoD's ability to model IW-like scenarios. While agentbased models have enjoyed widespread use in the social science community, many senior DoD officials are skeptical that agent-based models can provide useful tools to underpin DoD analysis, training, and acquisition needs.A key requirement for any M&S used by DoD is that it be validated. 1 DoD's definition of validation is ''The process of determining the degree to which a model or simulation and its associated data are an accurate representation

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“…Discussing OR/MS modelling in general, Pidd (2009) suggests four archetypal uses: decision automation, routine decision support, system investigation and improvement and providing insights for debate. Heath et al (2009), focusing on agentbased simulation, suggests three different archetypal approaches to simulation modelling, based on the modeller's level of understanding of the system to be simulated. As shown in Figure 1, Heath et al argue that, when the level of understanding is high, a simulation can be used as a predictor; that is, as a machine that produces clear predictions about the system's behaviour under defined conditions.…”

Section: 1mentioning

confidence: 99%

Using ABMS to simulate Emergency Departments

Escudero-Marin¹,

Pidd²

2011

Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)

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Computer simulation methods have enjoyed widespread use in healthcare system investigation and improvement. Most reported applications use discrete event simulation, though there are also many reports of the use of system dynamics. There are few reports of the use of agent-based simulations (ABS). This is curious, because healthcare systems are based on human interactions and the ability of ABS to represent human intention and interaction makes it an appealing approach. Tools exist to support both conceptual modelling and model implementation in ABS and these are illustrated with a simple example from an emergency department.

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Validation in the agent-based modelling paradigm: problems and a solution

Cited by 12 publications

References 34 publications

A DSM-based multi-paradigm simulation modeling approach for complex systems

A DSM-based multi-paradigm simulation modeling approach for complex systems

A demonstration of ABM validation techniques by applying docking to the Epstein civil violence model

Using ABMS to simulate Emergency Departments

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