Validating the Hornik & Woolf approach to choosing media campaign themes: Do promising beliefs predict behavior change in a longitudinal study?

Abstract

Hornik and Woolf (1999) proposed using cross-sectional survey data to prioritize beliefs to address with communication campaign messages. The empirical component of the approach combines evidence of (1) association of beliefs with intentions and (2) current level of beliefs to calculate a ‘percentage to gain’ as the potential promise of a belief. However, the method relies on cross-sectional data; its conclusions are open to challenge. Here, a panel study assesses whether the calculated promise of a belief actually predicts future behavior change. A nationally representative sample of 3,204 U.S. youth and young adults were interviewed twice, six months apart. Sixteen beliefs about the benefits and costs of smoking cigarettes are compared with regard to their percentage to gain (calculated from cross-sectional data) and their ability to account for subsequent cigarette use. A belief’s cross-sectional percentage to gain is substantially associated with its ability to predict subsequent behavior change (r=.53, p<.05).

Association of COVID-19 Misinformation with Face Mask Wearing and Social Distancing in a Nationally Representative US Sample

“…Campaigns would focus on moving people from disagreement or less than strong agreement with these beliefs which are highly associated with behaviors (you will protect more vulnerable people in our society; you will help the healthcare system so that people who need urgent medical care will receive it; you will slow the spread of the coronavirus; it will prevent you from transmitting coronavirus to others; your family and friends will approve of your decision; you will be less likely to get sick). While this study cannot establish that a campaign which successfully addressed these beliefs would also influence adoption of behaviors, it does create the beginning of a roadmap for priority focus for such campaigns (Brennan et al, 2017;Hornik et al, 2019).…”

Association of COVID-19 Misinformation with Face Mask Wearing and Social Distancing in a Nationally Representative US Sample

“…Campaigns would focus on moving people from disagreement or less than strong agreement with these beliefs which are highly associated with behaviors (you will protect more vulnerable people in our society; you will help the healthcare system so that people who need urgent medical care will receive it; you will slow the spread of the coronavirus; it will prevent you from transmitting coronavirus to others; your family and friends will approve of your decision; you will be less likely to get sick). While this study cannot establish that a campaign which successfully addressed these beliefs would also influence adoption of behaviors, it does create the beginning of a roadmap for priority focus for such campaigns (Brennan et al, 2017;Hornik et al, 2019). Note.…”

Results of a Single Arm Pilot Study of a Mobile Messaging Intervention for Hookah Tobacco Cessation in Young Adults

“…16 We created message content from models for health communication message development, existing hookah tobacco messaging research, and research on young adults' beliefs about hookah tobacco. 10,[17][18][19] We developed the message delivery sequence as a "story line" with message content (short-and long-term health harms, toxicant exposure, addictiveness) arranged to form a logical sequence over time. 16 We aligned the 12 message themes with common misperceptions about risks of hookah tobacco use in young adults.…”